Coastal Carolina vs. Arkansas State Odds & Pick: Upset Alert on the Surf Turf? (Saturday, Oct. 3)

Coastal Carolina vs. Arkansas State Betting Odds

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Saturday kicks off with two of the most successful offenses in the nation battling it out on the Surf Turf in Conway, South Carolina. Arkansas State and Coastal Carolina each boast offenses that rank top-14 in success rate. Furthermore, neither defense is particularly stalwart at preventing forward progress, and both teams' defenses allow an above-average scoring rate.

Do those metrics lead us to an over bet in this contest? Not so fast. There are plenty of other mitigating factors to consider — especially for Arkansas State.

Arkansas State Red Wolves

The Red Wolves have been one of the more explosive passing teams in the country, and they're capable of putting up points in a hurry. The Arkansas State offense averages a lightning-quick 21 seconds per play.

If you have yet to put eyes on Arkansas State, "The Jonathan Adams Jr. Show" has been on display since the Red Wolves' Week 2 upset over Kansas State:

The Red Wolves attempt a pass in 63% of their snaps from 11 personnel. Both Logan Bonner and Layne Hatcher have had plenty of snaps at quarterback, with Hatcher showing an early lead in passing plays over 20 yards.

Arkansas State has not played since Sept. 12, so the offense could start be rusty early in the contest. COVID-19 forced postponements in consecutive games against Central Arkansas and Tulsa, during which time head coach Blake Anderson dealt with the novel coronavirus.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers

Coastal Carolina looks to start Sun Belt play with a victory after an upset at Kansas and a victory against Campbell. Through those two games, the Chanticleers have been the best offense in the nation in finishing drives. Coastal has scored on all nine red-zone trips, eight of which have resulted in a touchdown.

The Coastal defense has excelled in preventing explosive drives, defined as any drive during which the offense averages over 10 net yards per play. The Chants have allowed only one explosive drive in 20 total opponent possessions.

No one will mistake the Kansas and Campbell passing attacks for Arkansas State, but for Coastal Carolina to compete in the Sun Belt the back-seven needs to step up. The Chanticleers have only defended eight total pass attempts in 148 defensive snaps this season.

Coastal Carolina's best defense may come at the pace of its offense. The Chanticleers average over 30 seconds per play through two games. The modified version of the RPO has been run through five different personnel groups this season. Per Sports Source Analytics, Coastal Carolina runs 74% out of 21 and 93% out of 22, making "keep away" the primary objective against Arkansas State.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Expectations entering this matchup are twofold:

1. Both offenses will have success moving the ball against soft opposing defenses.
2. Coastal Carolina will hoard time of possession. The Chanticleers' exceptionally slow offensive pace should enable them to stave off a breakneck pace from the Red Wolves.

In the final analysis, Coastal's exceptional performance in finishing drives could be the Chanticleers' trump card against a rusty and maligned opponent. Considering Coastal's offensive efficiency beyond the opponent's 40-yard line, this game has the potential for an upset.

The Bet: Coastal Carolina +3 or better

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