The Army-Navy game, first played in 1890, is crucial in determining the winner of the Commander-In-Chief Trophy, awarded to the best service academy team. With both Army and Navy beating Air Force earlier in the season, the Black Knights will look to retain the trophy for the sixth time in the last eight years.
Head coach Jeff Monken led Army to just one cover against the spread in the last five games, fresh off an AAC Championship game over Tulane. Health was a factor down the stretch for Navy, as head coach Brian Newberry led the Midshipmen to a cover just twice since October 19th. This Army-Navy game might have a different look on the offense side, as changes to blocks inside the tackle box have forced both teams to move to a hybrid triple-option offense.
Army vs Navy Prediction
I'm backing Army at -6.5 or Better and Kanye Udoh to TD and rush over 120 yards.
Army vs Navy Odds
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 / -110 | -245 |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 / -110 | +200 |
- Army vs Navy Point Spread: Army -6.5 (-110) · Navy +6.5 (-110)
- Army vs Navy Total: Over/Under 38.5
- Army vs Navy Moneyline: Army -245 · Navy +200
Army vs Navy Preview
Army Black Knights Betting Preview: Army New Look Offense on Fire
Army entered the AAC Championship game as a home five-point underdog. The spread was never in question, as the Black Knights led 21-7 at halftime and allowed the Green Wave just a single touchdown in the second half. The roster seemed rejuvenated after multiple non-covering games down the stretch. Both quarterback Bryson Daily and running back Kanye Udoh combined for 45 rushing attempts and 184 yards for five total touchdowns. Despite Tulane boasting a top-20 rush defense from an efficiency perspective, there was no resistance to the Black Knights average of 5.9 yards per rush attempt.
The offense has changed under coordinator Cody Worley, moving from the occasional two running back set to a true 31 personnel. More than 88% of snaps from the Army offense come with three running backs behind Daily lined up in the pistol, gun, or under center. The triple option from the wishbone of I-formation is now history for the Army offense, using a balanced mix of zone read, man and full back dive to recreate the triple in space. Every run concept for Army is successful, but man and counter have created the most explosives on the season.
The 3-3-5 defense has been poor against the rush all season, posting a bottom-25 rank in efficiency and line yards. The Black Knights have struggled to produce any success against zone read, while opponents using power concepts have produced a high number of explosives. Defending the play action pass has also been troublesome for a nickel defense that has one of the lower numbers of total pass breakups of any team in FBS. Opponents using play action have generated an explosive play on 19% of attempts.
Navy Midshipmen Betting Preview: Explosives Critical for Navy Offense
The Navy offense was humming through the first half of the season, winning six straight with 50 burgers against Charlotte and Memphis. Newberry hired Coordinator Drew Cronic to give the Midshipmen a spark under quarterback Blake Horvath. Navy became one of the best offenses in the country through midseason with a heavy rush rate at 76%, using a hybrid triple option with occasional play-action pass. Eight different players have scored a rushing touchdown for the Midshipmen offense, but the usage of Horvath and running back Alex Tecza created 50 missed tackles and a combined 20 touchdowns.
The 30-personnel offense changed under Cronic this season, implementing a tight end to run 31 on 95% of offensive plays this season. Horvath is primarily seen under center or in shotgun, leading an offense that finished top 25 in stuff rate, havoc allowed and rush-pass EPA. While success rate has been an issue for this offense, the ability to create explosives at any moment has been critical to the success of Navy. Cronic has a balanced attack from a run concept perspective, providing a near-even distribution of attempts from pulling lineman to full back dive and even trick plays.
Navy Run Concepts – Sport Source Analytics
The three-man front on defense has struggled in both standard and passing downs. The Midshipmen have allowed methodical drives to opponents using the rush, finishing 100th in efficiency. Passing downs have been troublesome from an explosives standpoint, as Navy is 113th in EPA allowed when opposing offenses get behind schedule. One of the brightest spots for Newberry's defense comes against the pass, ranking 26th in creating contested catches. In 117 play action passing attempts by opponents, Navy has a respectable 48% success rate with a positive EPA.
Army vs Navy
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Army and Navy match up statistically:
Army Offense vs. Navy Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 7 | 100 | |
| Line Yards | 4 | 117 | |
| Pass Success | 42 | 13 | |
| Havoc | 2 | 93 | |
| Finishing Drives | 21 | 32 | |
| Quality Drives | 2 | 34 | |
Navy Offense vs. Army Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 52 | 109 | |
| Line Yards | 42 | 118 | |
| Pass Success | 106 | 33 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 91 | |
| Finishing Drives | 16 | 3 | |
| Quality Drives | 66 | 14 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 57 | 25 |
| PFF Coverage | 40 | 30 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 67 | 119 |
| Middle 8 | 24 | 14 |
| Seconds per Play | 31.2 (133) | 30.0 (124) |
| Rush Rate | 86% (1) | 76% (3) |
Army vs Navy Pick & Prediction
Weather should not be a factor in Landover, with no precipitations and winds below 10 miles per hour. Considering both offenses have top 25 rankings in havoc allowed, the handicap comes in the defense best suited to defend the opponent's run concepts and play action pass. Army runs the highest percentage of run concepts using outside zone and man, as the latter has produced a monster 25% explosive play rate. Navy has not defended man concepts well all season, generating a low 35% success rate while giving up an explosive 15% of attempts. There is reason to believe Udoh will generate explosives when taking handoffs from Daily, as the sophomore has 64 attempts from man-run concepts with 21 explosive plays.
Navy is also flush with numerous run concepts that have an even distribution from a usage perspective. The Midshipmen have generated the most success through power and outside zone-read concepts. While both create a high success rate in moving the chains, power has generated an explosive play on 20% of attempts. The defense of the Black Knights has severely struggled against both run concepts, but outside zone may be the key for Navy. Army has a dreadful 38% success rate against outside zone while allowing an explosive on 20% of opponent attempts.
Each offense is expected to move the chains frequently with execution on the ground. Army has been the more potent offense from a play action pass perspective, as Daily is top 10 in big-time throw rate of all FBS quarterbacks with at least 40 attempts. Both offenses are set to execute in the extended red zone and the kicking game. Army and Navy are top 25 in offensive finishing drives, as both teams rank top five nationally in red zone touchdown rate. This classic has failed to go over 40 points since 2013, but with new run concepts and personnel on offense the analytics suggest a total of 48.
The Action Network projection makes Army a 9.5-point favorite against Navy. With recent common opponents in mind, Army blew out Tulane in the AAC Championship game just three weeks after the Green Wave blanked Navy in Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Army is the desired play at any number under a touchdown in this contest.
Props should be considered for the Army-Navy game with consideration to the explosives expected from both running games. Both teams rank top three in red zone rushing touchdown rate, giving value to Army's Kanye Udoh in goal line attempts with an already decorated record in explosive plays. Udoh lists at +115 for anytime touchdown, as the running back was tapped for two touchdowns in the last service academy game against Air Force. Udoh also lists at +450 to go over 120 rushing yards, which he crossed against the defenses of Tulane, Air Force, Tulsa and Temple.
Pick: Over 38.5 or Better | Army -6.5 or Better | Udoh +115 Anytime TD | Udoh over 120 Rushing Yards +450
How to Watch Army vs Navy Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Northwest Stadium, Landover |
| Date: | Saturday, Dec. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS |
