The Tulane Green Wave (9-3, 7-1 AAC) travel to West Point, New York, to face the Army Black Knights (10-1, 8-0) for the AAC Championship.
After losing to Memphis in the season's final week, Tulane wiped away any chance it had to sneak into the College Football Playoffs.
Nonetheless, the Green Wave has had a successful season. After losing several key players from last year's squad, many believed it would be a rebuilding year. However, the presence of Darian Mensah solidified them as contenders.
It's Army's first season in the AAC after decades of playing as an independent program, and what a first season it has been.
It took the Service Academy until Week 13 to lose its first game to one of the FBS elite in Notre Dame. Now on the verge of its first conference championship, Army has its eyes set on its annual Army/Navy game and potentially making the College Football Playoffs.
Let’s dive into our Army vs. Tulane picks and same-game parlay for Friday, Dec. 6.
Army vs. Tulane Odds
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -108 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -112 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
- Spread: Army +5.5 · Tulane -5.5
- Over/Under: 44.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Moneyline: Army +180 · Tulane -220
Army vs. Tulane Picks, Predictions, Same-Game Parlay
- Tulane -5.5
- Darian Mensah Over 179.5 Passing Yards
- Makhi Hughes Over 88.5 Rushing Yards
- Bryson Daily Under 128.5 Rushing Yards
Parlay Odds: +685 (FanDuel)
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Spread: Tulane -5.5
We’ve seen what happens when Army faces a higher-prestige, more talented program.
It's not pretty.
Two weeks ago in the Bronx, Army failed its biggest test. Notre Dame stomped out the feel-good story.
Army is looking for the AAC title in its first year in the conference, but this service academy doesn’t specialize in Waves.
Tulane has had an incredible season. After starting the season 1-2, with close losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma, the Green Wave gained momentum, winning eight out of their next nine.
Service Academy programs aren’t tough to plan against, especially since Tulane dominated a similar, run-heavy Navy 35-0 in Annapolis. Programs like Army, Navy, and Air Force are typically one-dimensional offensively and defensively.
Is Tulane on the same level as Notre Dame? No.
However, I’d say that the Wave can compete with just about any team in the FBS.
Mensah continues to improve, helping Tulane rank ninth nationally in Pass Play PPA, sixth in Explosiveness, and 44th in Success Rate.
Army won’t be able to hang with the Wave’s explosive receivers, Mario Williams, Dontae Fleming, and Yulkeith Brown.
Tulane Player Prop: Darian Mensah Over 179.5 Passing Yards
The red-shirt freshman is an exceptional talent, and I think Tulane has a bright future with Mensah leading the charge.
In three out of his past four starts, he’s broken the 179.5-yard mark. Given how poor Army’s pass defense is (117th in Pass Play Success Rate allowed), I’m expecting a big game from Mensah.
He didn’t throw a ton against Navy, but the team's specialty is defense, and it has done a remarkable job of stifling opposing offenses all season.
Army’s defense hasn’t held up strong, and I would argue that if it weren’t for Bryson Daily, this program wouldn’t be where it is right now.
Apart from its poor passing defense, the Black Knights rank 79th nationally in Havoc, 123rd in Standard Down Success Rate, 105th in Standard PPA, and 118th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
I like Casey Larkin, but I don’t think the rest of the secondary can keep up with Tulane’s three-headed monster.
Tulane Player Prop: Makhi Hughes Over 88.5 Rushing Yards
One of the more confusing stats is Tulane’s low ranking in the run department.
The Wave rank 104th nationally in Rush Success Rate, but the run game is a significant part of this program’s success.
The Wave consistently put up yards on the ground, with Makhi Hughes ranking 12th nationally with 1,306 rushing yards.
Hughes’ past two games were subpar for his standards. The redshirt sophomore averages 109 yards per game but only amassed 98 in this two-game stretch.
In a high-stakes game, I expect Hughes to break out again, especially given Army’s struggles against the run.
Notre Dame stomped a mudhole in the Knights, with Jeremiyah Love running for two touchdowns and 130 yards on seven carries.
Army Player Prop: Bryson Daily Under 128.5 Rushing Yards
Daily’s success has been a revelation this season.
Seeing how dominant he’s been on the run has certainly opened some eyes. He rushed for an FBS second-ranked and quarterback-leading 25 rushing touchdowns.
Daily has surpassed the 128.5-yard mark seven times this season, including in five consecutive games.
So why are we going with the under here?
Tulane has done a solid job of preventing explosive runs against mobile quarterbacks.
The perfect example was in Week 2 against Kansas State, when the Green Wave shut down Avery Johnson, forcing the Wildcats to hand the ball off.
There’s no shortage of talent in Army’s backfield, either. Kanye Udoh and Noah Short average over six yards per carry (Short, in limited carries, averages 8.5).
With Army’s predictability, I’m anticipating Tulane to prepare for many Daily runs, forcing him to either use his arm or look to Udoh or Short.
