All odds above are as of Monday and via PointsBet.
I'm not a big trend bettor, but there are a few that I keep tabs on. There must be real causation for me to take any trend serious.
I don't care about the historical against-the-spread success rate of college football home teams west of the Mississippi with red helmets playing on a week night.
If it can't be explained with a tangible reason, the correlation is meaningless to me.
I also always stress that just because a trend was profitable in the past, that doesn't mean it will continue to be profitable in the future. Oddsmakers and the market can adjust over time and value can quickly get sucked away in a once profitable situation. West coast NFL teams heading east for the early time slot comes to mind.
That said, two of the college football trends that have remained on my radar for years pertain to the three service academies — Army, Navy and Air Force.
They all run a triple option offense, which enables them to compete at the FBS level with less "talented" rosters.
Service Academy Betting Trends
I'm sure you've heard me speak about betting unders (especially on the opening line) when two service academies meet. These have been uber-successful — Army and Navy have gone under the closing total for 13 straight years and all service academy games are 31-8 on the under since 2006.
It makes logical sense. The clock is almost always running with two option-heavy teams and both defenses have a ton of familiarity with the option, since they practice against it.
The other one that I wanted to detail in this piece could be applicable every week — not just three times a year when the service academies face each other.
Generally speaking, service academies are solid bets as underdogs and worthy fades as favorites.
It's also more of a general guideline than anything, but again, it makes sense. Army, Navy and Air Force all run the triple-option, which limits total possessions and keeps the clock moving at a rapid pace.
That makes it much more difficult to cover as a favorite, especially as spreads get larger. Check out the far right column here, detailing how each of the service academies have fared as double-digit favorites since 2005:
Air Force and Army are two of the five least profitable teams as a favorite since 2005. And Navy is in the bottom 20 as well. The teams are also a combined 11-21-2 (34.3%) when favored by at least three touchdowns.
I don't follow this rule of thumb blindly, but it's something I always keep in mind.
Week 1 Thoughts
Another factor I look for when capping service academy games is their opponent's preparation time and familiarity with the option. If a team has seen a triple option in the recent past, that will certainly help.
Having extra preparation time will also serve an opponent well to prepare for the unique offenses that Army, Navy and Air Force run.
That's the situation the service academies find themselves in this week.
Rice at Army
- Spread: Army -23.5
- Total: 48
- Details: Friday, Aug. 30 at 6 p.m. ET (CBSSN)
Their opponents in Week 1 will obviously benefit from that extra preparation, having had all summer to get ready for the triple option — a luxury teams during the season don't have on a week-to-week basis. In fact, Rice head coach Mike Bloomgren recently said he's been thinking about the Army option since February.
I'm not high on Rice by any means but they should be improved with a much more experienced roster in Bloomgren's second season. The Owls played 21 true freshman last year.
Plus, Army has Michigan on deck. While I don't think service academies usually fall victim to flat situational spots, the coaching staff might not have put as much time into preparing for their Week 1 opponent as usual.
The Black Knights, who are replacing their top two fullbacks (Darnell Woolfolk and Andy Davidson) and defensive coordinator Jay Bateman, are a team I have circled for negative regression this year.
They should beat Rice outright with ease, but I don't think they cover this big number, which would drop their ATS record to 4-11 in season openers since 2005.
Bet to Watch: Rice +21.5 or better
Colgate at Air Force
- Spread: Air Force -16.5
- Total: 43.5
- Details: Saturday, Aug. 31 at noon ET (ESPN3)
Colgate had an outstanding 2018 season, losing only two games all year. One came against Army and the other to eventual FBS national champion North Dakota State. But the defense looked inexperienced and beatable in a loss to Villanova on Saturday.
That game against Army will certainly help in the familiarity department but this is a Colgate team that lost a lot of talent from last season, including 25 departed seniors.
Air Force is a team I think will be undervalued in the market — at least early on. They lost a ton of close games last year, as five of their seven losses were one possession defeats. This is an experienced bunch that should get the bounces they haven't the past two seasons.
Despite the recent experience of playing Army and having last year's top FCS defense, I want no part of Colgate. You'd have to give me more than three touchdowns to back the Raiders heading across the country against a solid Air Force squad in the altitude of Colorado Springs.
Bet to Watch: Air Force -16.5
Holy Cross at Navy
- Spread: -20.5
- Total: 54.5
- Details: Saturday, Aug. 31 at 3:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN)
Navy will also kick off its 2019 campaign with an FCS opponent from the Patriot League.
Similar to Colgate, Holy Cross also lost a ton of production from last season, although second-year head coach Bob Chesney has this program headed in the right direction, especially in the recruiting department. But this is a major step up in competition and keeping this close against a Navy team looking to wash away the dirt of last season will be a tall order.
After an extremely disappointing 2018, I expect a bounce-back from the Midshipmen this season. You'll see a familiar face under center in quarterback Malcolm Perry, who will spearhead the triple-option attack. However, you will see some major changes elsewhere.
Navy's defense was abysmal last season, so head coach Ken Niumatalolo overhauled the staff on that side of the ball. New defensive coordinator Brian Newberry will transition the team to a more aggressive 4-2-5 scheme (with some 3-4 principles). The defense should be better as a result.
The passing game was also atrocious last year — even for Navy's standards. As a result, you may see some run n' shoot under the tutelage of first year offensive assistant Billy Ray Stuttzman, who arrives in Annapolis via Hawaii.
The run n' shoot can be implemented with the same formations as the option and will hopefully give Navy a much needed boost through the air.
The spread looks a little low to be honest but I'm not the biggest fan of laying three touchdowns with a service academy, as I stated before.
I'd actually take a look at the under here. The Crusaders will have to rely on running back Domenic Cozier and a fairly solid offensive line after losing their quarterback and top three receivers.
Meanwhile, I don't expect Navy to show many of its new offensive wrinkles in such a winnable game, so the clock should be moving rapidly throughout.
Bet to Watch: Under 54.5
