The College Football Playoff has kept Group of Five teams in the mix for the first two months of the season. But its time for the cream to rise to the top.
The Game of the Year in the Mountain West is set to be played on Friday night in Sin City, and if that wasn’t enough, it may end up featuring the Heisman Trophy winner as well.
Below are three Ashton Jeanty props I'm targeting, along with a bonus moneyling pick. If you parlay all four together, you'll get a +840 return to make this can't-miss Boise State vs. UNLV game even more enticing
Ashton Jeanty Props
- Ashton Jeanty Over 17.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Ashton Jeanty to Score 2+ Touchdowns (-240)
- Ashton Jeanty Over 214.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-114)
- Bonus Pick: UNLV ML +135
- Parlay Payout: +840 (FanDuel)
Ashton Jeanty Over 17.5 Receiving Yards
UNLV head coachBarry Odom is going to try everything to stop Jeanty on the ground. Spoiler alert: It’s not going to work.
Jeanty is the most elusive runner since Barry Sanders, full stop.
Among backs with at least 100 carries this season, Jeanty ranks second with 7.4 yards per carry. Oh, I’m sorry, that’s not his yards per carry average — that’s his yards after contact average. That’s just one way to frame the absurdity he’s putting on film.
Jeanty has the highest elusive grade from PFF in the 16 years it has charted, and the second-closest runner isn’t even particularly close. Among qualifying runners, Clemson’s Travis Etienne was the only one in the ballpark, and he was still 31% less elusive than Jeanty.
UNLV’s defense should also be gassed in this game after going 15 rounds with Syracuse and Oregon State in recent games.
Let’s focus on UNLV’s defensive profile for a moment.
The Rebels field a slightly below-average run defense, which means they’ll need to load the box to have any chance of holding Jeanty below 200 yards on the ground. Early in this game, I’m counting on eight and nine defenders crowding the box with their eyes primed on Jeanty.
So, how can Boise offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter counter this? With the quick game.
Jeanty is a plus-route-runner with above-average hands, so the playbook is available to Koetter by way of screens, swing passes, and a variety of Texas/Wheel/Option routes. We haven’t seen Jeanty utilized in this way much this year, but keep in mind, Jeanty was an excellent pass-catcher last year finishing with a line 39/552/5.
This aerial strategy was deployed by Syracuse to great success against UNLV earlier this season. Syracuse’s LeQuint Allen was more or less held in check on the ground, but he was highly effective when matched up against UNLV’s linebackers as a receiver out of the backfield. Allen finished with nine catches for 58 yards and two touchdowns. He was targeted 11 times in total.
If you’re still concerned about Jeanty’s target volume, it’s important to keep in mind that those figures were influenced by Boise blowouts. In runaways against Portland State and Utah State, Jeanty wasn’t targeted a single time. But in his other four games, he was targeted 16 times.
This is what I’m anticipating against UNLV — four to five targets, resulting in three to four receptions. From there, I think he’s due for positive regression on the yardage front because he breaks so many tackles as a ballcarrier.
Ashton Jeanty to Score 2+ Touchdowns
This is a parlay sweetener.
Against FBS opponents, Jeanty is averaging 3.6 touchdowns per game and has scored at least two in every contest.
There isn’t a goal-line vulture to worry about. Maddux Madsen isn’t much of a running threat, nor is the Boise passing attack likely to get cooking against a UNLV secondary that ranks 16th in coverage, per PFF.
The markets on nearly every Jeanty prop are insanely out of whack, including a 95-1 offer on him to break the NCAA rushing record (428 yards).
But this touchdown prop is slightly mispriced, in my opinion. I would add this onto the parlay as long as it doesn’t move past -275.
Ashton Jeanty Over 214.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards
I project Jeanty to reach at least 30 receiving yards in this game, which would require him to hit 185 on the ground to cash this leg of the parlay.
What’s interesting about this total is that it’s dead on his season average. The thing is, he was pulled in games against Portland State and Utah State. If you remove those games, his average jumps to 243.5 total yards per game.
I project this to be a four-quarter battle with the home team pulling away late, so you can count on 25-plus touches for Jeanty.
Mere mortals like Kansas’ Devin Neal and Syracuse’s LeQuint Allen averaged 141 yards per game against UNLV with the Rebs’ defense keying on them. Jeanty makes Neal and Allen look like they’re running in ankle-high water.
The Heisman co-favorite has forced 56 missed tackles this season to their 48 as a tandem. Neal and Allen show it’s possible to go big against UNLV, but Jeanty will go nuclear.
Bonus Pick: UNLV ML +135
Jeanty will have a monster performance, but football remains a team game. UNLV is the better team with the better quarterback, and it's playing at home. These are too big of factors to ignore.
Outside of Jeanty, Boise’s calling card this season has been its pass rush. No team has recorded more sacks per game than Boise, but UNLV has the recipe to keep it in check. The UNLV offensive line is elite by G5 standards, and Hajj-Malilk Williams is a veteran who seemingly always makes the right choice in both the run and pass games.
Staying ahead of the sticks is paramount for Brennan Marion and his Go-Go Offense because when Boise turns its pass rushers loose on third-and-long, they get home.
But when the threat of the run and pass is on the table, Boise has been horrific on third downs. The Broncos are 117th in third-down conversion defense. When you combine this line, anchored by future pro Tiger Shanks, with the razor-sharp decision-making of Williams, I like UNLV to convert north of 50% of its third-down attempts while avoiding sacks.
With drive-killing sacks off the menu, it’s possible to take advantage of a leaky Boise secondary. The Broncos rank 95th in plays of 30-plus yards surrendered this season, so big plays will be available to HMW and his playmakers at Allegiant Stadium.
Scheming people open is useful, but having elite athletes who can burn man coverage is even better. The UNLV offense features a pair of big-play threats in Jacob De Jesus and Ricky White III.
In the past six games, De Jesus has at least one reception of 34 yards or more out of the slot, and White has rebounded from an early-season slump.
With Matthew Sluka as the Rebs’ starter, White was nothing more than a decoy. With Williams behind center? He’s playing like an All-American again, averaging a line of 9/122/1.5.
And finally, UNLV has a chance to turn this game on special teams.
James Shibest, UNLV’s special teams coach, has gone full Beamer Ball. He’s unleashed White as a punt block specialist, and to put it lightly, he’s been a terror off the edge. The future NFL Draft pick has blocked three punts and returned another to the house.
If it comes down to a kick late in the game, freshman placekicker Caden Chittenden has it under control. The highly-touted kicker has lived up to the hype connecting on 17-of-19 attempts on the season, including 4-of-5 from 40 yards or more.
This will go down as the biggest win in UNLV history.
