The Auburn Tigers (5-6, 2-5 SEC) make the trip to Tuscaloosa on Saturday to take on the Alabama Crimson Tide (8-3, 4-3) in another edition of the Iron Bowl. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
The Iron Bowl has been the scene of college football's most climactic performances over the past 15 years.
A last-second touchdown toss last season granted the Crimson Tide entry into the College Football Playoff before a subsequent 27-20 loss in the Rose Bowl to eventual champion Michigan.
However, nothing will top the "Kick Six" from 2013, as a 57-yard field goal attempt to end the game by Alabama resulted in a 109-yard game-winning return for Auburn.
"OH MY GOD! AUBURN'S GOING TO WIN THE FOOTBALL GAME!”
On this Great Moment in Gambling History, @_Collin1 looks back at the “Kick Six” presented by @DKSportsbookpic.twitter.com/a8I9IqrsA2
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) November 20, 2020
The motivation for a win in this game did a complete 180-degree turn in Week 13. Auburn is now 1 victory away from bowl season, while Alabama's chances of an SEC and national title are all but gone.
Alabama has remained as a -11 favorite through early week investments with the over/under sitting at 52.5.
With the Iron Bowl kickoff inching closer, let's take a look at my Auburn vs. Alabama predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 30.
Auburn vs Alabama Prediction
- Auburn vs. Alabama Pick: Auburn +11.5
My Alabama vs. Auburn best bet is on the Tigers to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Auburn vs Alabama Odds
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 / -110 | +350 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 / -110 | -450 |
- Auburn vs Alabama Spread: Auburn +11.5 (-110) · Alabama -11.5 (-110)
- Auburn vs Alabama Over/Under: 52.5
- Auburn vs Alabama Moneyline: Auburn +350 · Alabama -450
Auburn vs Alabama Preview
Auburn Tigers Betting Preview: Looking for a Bowl Bid
Auburn could be peaking at the right time of the season after a victory over Texas A&M in Week 13.
Running back Jarquez Hunter continues to lead a gritty ground assault that ranks eighth in efficiency and 15th in Stuff Rate. The senior tallied three touchdowns on the Aggies, adding six missed tackles forced and five runs of at least 10 yards or more.
Hunter averages 4.2 yards after first contact, as Auburn prefers inside zone with a high 59% Success Rate.
Watch Jarquez Hunter’s touchdown run to give Auburn the leadpic.twitter.com/Hpg0xwXO6A
— Auburn Gold Mine (@AUGoldMine) November 24, 2024
The Tigers have been much more successful with the rush this season, but the emergence of a freshman wide receiver may change the outlook for quarterback Payton Thorne.
Wideout Cam Coleman has received nearly 40% of his season targets over the past two games against the Aggies and ULM. The Alabama native was a blue-chip prospect, ranked second in a group of wide receivers that included Ohio State's Jeremiah Smith of Ohio State and Alabama's Ryan Williams.
Coleman has averaged more than three yards per route run, providing head coach Hugh Freeze with a possession receiver and deep-threat weapon on the outside.
Defensive coordinator DJ Durkin's 3-3-5 unit has been fantastic against the rush, ranking top-five in Line Yards.
The issues have come against teams looking to use the passing game to move the chains and create scoring opportunities. The Tigers have fallen to 72nd in coverage grading, per PFF, a direct correlation to a mid-FBS number in passes defensed.
However, Auburn has limited teams with mobile quarterbacks — something that should translate to success in the Iron Bowl.
Alabama Crimson Tide Betting Preview: Tide in Trouble?
Alabama's inconsistency continued in a Week 13 loss to Oklahoma. Every loss for the Crimson Tide has come away from Bryant-Denny Stadium, each with a direct correlation to a limited rushing attack for head coach Kalen DeBoer's offense.
Alabama sits outside the top 50 in Rushing Success Rate and has seen a major dip in an explosives number that resides outside the top 100.
An offensive line that has trouble keeping defenders out of the backfield has contributed to a rank of 88th in Havoc Allowed, often creating pressure and sacks for quarterback Jalen Milroe.
Teams that have limited Milroe in standard downs have found plenty of success when it comes to ending Alabama possessions.
Here is every Jalen Milroe rush in Alabama's loss to the Oklahoma Sooners.
Milroe took 15 carries for 7 yards in Norman.
What do you notice from these 15 snaps? pic.twitter.com/LLtKSiah29
— Joe Gaither (@JoeGaither6) November 25, 2024
Kane Wommack's nickel defense continues to be the backbone of the team, limiting Oklahoma to just two offensive touchdowns.
Alabama had lived up to top-10 ranks in Defensive Quality Drives and Defensive Finishing Drives in two previous SEC wins, allowing just 13 points to LSU and Missouri.
The scripted portion of the game continues to be a money-maker for the Crimson Tide defense. Outside of the Vanderbilt game, Alabama has allowed six total points in the first quarter of its six other SEC games.
Auburn vs Alabama Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Auburn and Alabama match up statistically:
Auburn Offense vs. Alabama Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 8 | 37 | |
| Line Yards | 23 | 42 | |
| Pass Success | 67 | 17 | |
| Havoc | 80 | 40 | |
| Finishing Drives | 98 | 9 | |
| Quality Drives | 52 | 6 | |
Alabama Offense vs. Auburn Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 51 | 16 | |
| Line Yards | 111 | 4 | |
| Pass Success | 16 | 58 | |
| Havoc | 88 | 91 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 8 | 18 | |
| Quality Drives | 26 | 33 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 53 | 2 |
| PFF Coverage | 72 | 17 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 88 | 27 |
| Middle 8 | 21 | 13 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.7 (38) | 27.4 (72) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (75) | 58% (38) |
Auburn vs Alabama Pick & Prediction
There's reason to believe Alabama will continue to struggle in creating a presence on the ground against Auburn. In the Tide's three SEC losses, Milroe has been held to less than a grand total of 30 rushing yards.
Auburn has shown the ability to shut down opposing mobile quarterbacks in prior conference games. Texas A&M's Marcel Reed gained just 47 yards on nine scrambles, while Vanderbilt's Diego Pavia racked up only 21 yards on 15 attempts.
Alabama's rank of 111th in Offensive Line Yards and Stuff Rate allowed means Milroe will need the passing game to put the Crimson Tide in scoring position.
Oklahoma found plenty of success in passing downs against the Tide. The Sooners converted 7-of-15 attempts on third down thanks to an average distance of 4.1 yards to go.
The emergence of Coleman at wideout will put a microscope on Alabama cornerback Domani Jackson, as the USC transfer has failed to record a pass breakup in his last five games.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Alabama to be favored by 10, giving small value to the Tigers in the market.
Considering what Wommack and the Crimson Tide defense have done to opposing offenses in the first quarter, a live number on Auburn starting in the second quarter could be the better value over a pregame wager on the Tigers.
Pick: Auburn +11.5 · Alabama 1Q -3.5
Auburn vs Alabama Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 30 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC |
Auburn and Alabama meet in the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa on Saturday, Nov. 30. Kickoff will take place at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Auburn vs Alabama Betting Trends
Auburn vs Alabama Weather
