We've got Tuesday Night MACtion coming to you live from Western New York, as the Buffalo Bulls (5-4, 3-2 MAC) are set to host the Ball State Cardinals (3-6, 2-3). Tuesday's kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
The Cardinals are desperate to make a bowl game but must win out to earn a bid. Meanwhile, the Bulls can push for the MAC title game but must continue their winning ways and get some help.
Oddsmakers have the Bulls as 6.5-point favorites with the total at 53.5.
Let's dive into my Ball State vs. Buffalo predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Nov. 12.
Ball State Cardinals vs. Buffalo Bulls Prediction, Picks
- Ball State vs. Buffalo Pick: Over 53.5
My Buffalo vs. Ball State best bet is for both teams to go over the total, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Ball State vs. Buffalo Odds, Lines
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | +143 |
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- Ball State vs. Buffalo Spread: Buffalo -3.5 · Ball State +3.5
- Ball State vs. Buffalo Over/Under: 56 Total Points
- Ball State vs. Buffalo Moneyline: Buffalo -170, Ball State +143
Ball State Football vs. Buffalo Football Preview
Ball State Cardinals Betting Preview
The Cardinals made a solid effort against Miami (OH) last week but lost the game 27-21.
Despite having a ton of disadvantages on both sides of the ball, the Cardinals somehow put together a couple of respectable scoring drives, and the defense did their part.
However, the defense should be less solid on the road as plenty of alarming metrics may come into play. First, the Cardinals are outside the top 100 in almost every critical defensive metric, except Havoc (96th).
They've been gashed through the air and on the ground and have allowed opponents to score touchdowns most of the time when they enter their territory.
The Bulls' offensive metrics are misleading, so I wouldn’t expect many stops from Ball State’s defense.
Offensively, the Cardinals have been a lot better than expected. Quarterback Kadin Semonza cost the Cardinals the game last week with a couple of costly turnovers, but he's helped lift the offense overall.
Semonza has 15 touchdown passes and nearly 2000 yards passing, but he’s also thrown nine interceptions. Ball State nearly outgained the RedHawks last week, which shows the game was easily within its grasp.
Buffalo has been excellent in coverage, so Semonza will have his hands full. However, the Bulls have been vulnerable on the ground, and the Cardinals rank inside the top 65 in Rush Success Rate and Line Yards.
The offense is also 58th in Finishing Drives, so I expect it to find the end zone more often than not when entering Bulls territory.
This isn’t the greatest matchup for the Cardinals, but I'd argue that they exposed the RedHawks defense — one of the best defensive units in the conference — last week.
Given their pathetic defense, I can’t back the Cardinals, but I think their offense may be a bit underrated.
Buffalo Bulls Betting Preview
Buffalo dominated Akron, 41-30, last week. The Bulls' offensive metrics might seem ugly, but they've now scored over 30 points in five games this season.
Last week, they benefited from three turnovers and accumulated 390 yards of offense. Quarterback C.J. Ogbonna threw for two touchdowns and chipped in another on the ground.
Ogbonna has only thrown one interception this season, but he has lost five fumbles. The Bulls' offensive focal point is the rushing attack, which is key heading into the matchup.
The Cardinals can’t do much on defense and are outside the top 120 in tackling, so Buffalo should find success running the ball.
The Bulls love to up the tempo on offense and rank 32nd in seconds per play. They should take advantage of the Cardinals' horrendous defense on early downs, which ranks near the bottom of all FBS teams in that category.
They are also 52nd in Finishing Drives, another edge to the offense. The Cardinals’ defense is bad; don’t let the past two weeks convince you otherwise.
Defensively, there are questions in both the trench and secondary. Although they've been excellent in coverage and tackling, the Bulls are 98th in Pass Success Rate Allowed.
They're also 85th in Quality Drives Allowed, which leads me to believe the Cardinals offense will have ample opportunities to sustain drives.
I’m not sold enough on the Bulls defense to swallow the points here. I faded the Cardinals last week and won’t do that to myself again.
Buffalo vs. Ball State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Buffalo and Ball State match up statistically:
Ball State Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 63 | 74 | |
| Line Yards | 66 | 66 |  |
| Pass Success | 71 | 98 | |
| Havoc | 89 | 60 | |
| Finishing Drives | 58 | 66 | |
| Quality Drives | 83 | 85 | |
Buffalo Offense vs. Ball State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 117 | 112 | |
| Line Yards | 116 | 116 | |
| Pass Success | 117 | 132 | |
| Havoc | 87 | 96 | |
| Finishing Drives | 52 | 130 | |
| Quality Drives | 111 | 132 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 117 | 7 |
| PFF Coverage | 125 | 21 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 66 | 64 |
| Middle 8 | 131 | 103 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.3 (98) | 25.6 (32) |
| Rush Rate | 47% (114) | 59% (36) |
How to Make Ball State vs. Buffalo Picks
I think it is a great time to take the over. The total is sitting at 53.5, and I will grab it before it begins touching the key numbers of 54 and 55.
Besides a few areas of strength from the Bulls defense, I think both offenses are set up for success.
A lot of sharp money has begun to pour in on the over, and I'll happily ride with the wise guys on Tuesday night.
Pick: Over 54.5 (Play to 55)
Ball State vs. Buffalo Channel, Streaming, Location How To Watch
| Location: | UB Stadium, Buffalo, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, Nov. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
Ball State takes on Buffalo on Tuesday, Nov. 12 at 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Buffalo vs. Ball State Betting Trends
- 54% of bets and 44% of the money are on Buffalo to cover the spread
- 90% of bets and 81% of the money on the moneyline are on Buffalo to win outright
- 59% of bets and 77% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Buffalo vs. Ball State Weather
