Following a thrilling Week 4 shootout against North Carolina, James Madison will host Ball State in its final non-conference game of the regular season. This game will kickoff at 1:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Ball State enters this game with a 1-2 record with a two-game losing streak. It holds a 2-1 record against the spread and has gone over in each of their first three games.
James Madison has a 3-0 record, including a 70-50 win over North Carolina. The Dukes have a 2-1 record against the spread and have gone under in two games.
Forecasts for the game appear to be favorable. The temperature will be 77 degrees, and rain is not expected. Winds are projected to be mild so scoring and gameplay should not be impacted.
Here's my Ball State vs. James Madison prediction.
Ball State vs James Madison Odds, Spread, Pick
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21.5 -112 | 56 -112 / -108 | +900 |
| James Madison Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21.5 -108 | 56 -112 / -108 | -1600 |
- Spread: Ball State +20.5 (-110) · James Madison -20.5 (-110)
- Total: Over/Under 56
- Moneyline: Ball State +900 · James Madison -1600
- Pick: James Madison -20.5
Ball State vs James Madison Betting Preview
Ball State Football
Mike Neu's ninth season as head coach of Ball State is largely in line with his previous seasons. The Cardinals hold a 1-2 record and have averaged 25.3 points per game and 4.7 yards per play. They have a 39.1% Success Rate on offense but have been content to average a pace outside of the top 100 at 29.6 seconds per play.
Whether it is a function of game script or the actual plan, Ball State has relied upon the passing game more than the running game. The Cardinals average 37 pass attempts per game and 218.7 passing yards per game. Kadin Semonza leads the offense with 658 passing yards and seven touchdowns while completing 70.5% of his passes. As a team, Ball State has a 36.7 passing success rate while dispersing the ball effectively between five receivers.
Braedon Sloan leads the team with 210 rushing yards and two touchdowns. As a team, they have a 43% rushing success rate and have averaged 3.3 yards per attempt. The offensive line has helped out by generating 3.09 line yards per attempt.
To say that opposing offenses have been efficient against the Cardinals defense may be a slight understatement. Ball State has allowed 44.3 points per game and an FBS worst 8.9 yards per play. Their 49.2% success rate allowed is tenth worst, nationally, and opponents have scored 4.75 points per opportunity.
James Madison Football
Following Curt Cignetti was never going to be an easy task, but early results point towards James Madison making another great hire in Bob Chesney. The Dukes have a 3-0 record while averaging 37.7 points per game and 6.9 yards per play. They have a 42.7% success rate and have scored an average of 4.38 points per opportunity.
Redshirt sophomore QB Alonza Barnett is the centerpiece of the offense for the Dukes with both his arm and his legs. He's averaging 247.3 passing yards per game while completing 62.2% of his passes. He has a 41.8% passing success rate and is averaging 10.0 yards per attempt.
Barnett also makes a meaningful impact as a runner. He's leading the team with 203 rushing yards and two scores on 31 attempts.
Transfer RB George Pettaway leads the RB room for James Madison with 201 rushing yards and a touchdown. As a team, they're averaging 189 rushing yards per game with an average of 4.9 yards per attempt. The Dukes have 43.% rushing success rate behind an offensive line that is generating 2.98 line yards per attempt.
The defense is allowing an average of 21.0 points per game and 5.5 yards per attempt, but those numbers are somewhat skewed by a shootout win over North Carolina in which they allowed 55 points. In their two previous contests they allowed an average of 6.5 points per game. They allow a 37% success rate and 3.63 points per opportunity. Their havoc rate is slightly below average at just 16.2%.
Ball State vs James Madison
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ball State and James Madison match up statistically:
Ball State Offense vs. James Madison Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 79 | 31 | |
| Line Yards | 73 | 78 | |
| Pass Success | 105 | 61 | |
| Havoc | 120 | 88 | |
| Finishing Drives | 64 | 67 |  |
| Quality Drives | 89 | 42 | |
James Madison Offense vs. Ball State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 75 | 125 | |
| Line Yards | 85 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 75 | 133 | |
| Havoc | 92 | 67 | |
| Finishing Drives | 44 | 117 | |
| Quality Drives | 40 | 131 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 111 | 130 |
| PFF Coverage | 130 | 41 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 92 | 18 |
| Middle 8 | 129 | 18 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.3 (106) | 27.9 (75) |
| Rush Rate | 47% (116) | 61% (33) |
Ball State vs James Madison Prediction
According to the PRO Report, both sharp money and big money bets have been tracked to back James Madison and have caused the line to move up to 20.5 from the open at 17. As of this writing, 52% of bets and 96% of moneys has been bet in favor of James Madison.
Additionally, sharps have come out to bet the over and have moved the line up a full point. Approximately 52% of bets and 85% of money has backed the over.
At first glance, the total appears to be an intriguing way to play this game. However, a play on the total largely comes down to expectation of Ball State's contributions. While the North Carolina game showed that the James Madison defense is capable of allowing points, overmatched opponents have found almost no success against them. And Ball State is an overmatched opponent.
Because of the possibility that a win may come down to James Madison getting 50 points on its own, my preferred play is to take a side.
Similar to the sharps, I see this as a fairly one-sided matchup where James Madison will have the chance to hold onto the ball with consistent success and Ball State will struggle to move the ball. I have this number at 26 so I'm taking the favorites laying 20.5 and would take them all the way to 24.
Pick: James Madison -20.5 (Play to 24)
How to Watch Ball State vs James Madison Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Bridgeforth Stadium, Harrisonburg, Virginia |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 1:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN+ |
Ball State vs James Madison Betting Trends
- Ball State is 1-2 in its last three games
- Ball is 2-1 against the spread in its last three games
- JMU is 3-0 in its past three games
- JMU is 2-1 against the spread in its past three games
Ball State vs James Madison Weather
