On Saturday afternoon, the Ball State Cardinals will head to Coral Gables to take on the No. 10 Miami (FL) Hurricanes. Miami began the season No. 19 in the AP Poll and has already moved into the top 10 after a pair of dominant victories over in-state foes Florida and Florida A&M.
Meanwhile, Ball State began its season a week later than everyone else. However, the Cardinals were able to secure a 42-34 victory over Missouri State. This week, they will be heavy underdogs on the road.
This will be the first meeting between these two programs, but Miami is 9-0 against the MAC all-time. Last season, the Hurricanes defeated Miami (OH) 38-3. Will that trend continue against the Cardinals?
Here's my Ball State vs Miami prediction and pick.
Ball State vs Miami Prediction
- Ball State vs Miami Pick: Miami Team Total Over 45.5 Points
My Ball State vs Miami best bet is on the team total over, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Ball State vs Miami Odds
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+36.5 -110 | 55 -112o / -108u | +5000 |
| Miami (FL) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-36.5 -110 | 55 -112o / -108u | N/A |
- Point Spread: Ball State +36.5 (-110), Miami -36.5 (-110)
- Total: 55.5 (-110 both ways)
- Moneyline: Ball State +5000, Miami N/A
Ball State vs Miami Preview
Ball State Cardinals Betting Preview: Long Day for Defense Ahead?
Now in his ninth season, Mike Neu has done some good things at Ball State, most notably going 7-1 and winning the MAC in the 2020 season. However, throughout his tenure, defense has not been one of the program's strong suits.
From 2016 to 2021, Ball State ranked an average of 109.2 defensive SP+ before showing improvement under defensive coordinator Tyler Stockton. The Cardinals ranked 65th in the category last season and allowed 24.4 points per game.
However, early projections have the Cardinals regressing on that side of the ball, and there were signs of it last Saturday. Ball State had 16 defenders get 200 snaps last season but returned just three of them. Against Missouri State, it broke in an entirely new defensive line and secondary, allowing just 320 total yards in that game, but Missouri State scored 34 points (27 offensively) while possessing the ball for just 21 minutes.
Ball State enters the week 104th in defensive SP+ as it heads to Miami. The Cardinals allowed 258 passing yards and two passing touchdowns on 8.1 yards per attempt. Facing an explosive Miami passing attack this week will likely result in a long day for the Cardinals.
Miami Hurricanes Betting Preview: Offensive Upgrades Abound
Miami went to the transfer portal to add quarterback Cam Ward, running back Damien Martinez and wide receiver Sam Brown, among others, to upgrade its offense. The early returns have been everything that head coach Mario Cristobal could have asked for. Miami is averaging 48.5 points, 539 total yards and 7.7 yards per play through its first two games, one of which was against a SEC defense.
Ward is completing 75% of his passes while averaging 344.5 passing yards per game and throwing for six touchdowns, adding another score on the ground, and one interception. Ward now has the second-shortest odds to win the Heisman (+750) after opening the season at +2000.
Martinez is averaging six yards per carry, while sophomore Mark Fletcher Jr. is averaging 5.4 yards per carry and has scored three of the team's six rushing touchdowns. The two form a punishing duo, as they are both over 225 pounds. True freshman Jordan Lyles scored his first career touchdown in the victory over Florida A&M.
Xavier Restrepo has reaffirmed that he is still WR1 despite the added firepower. He has gone over 100 yards with a touchdown in each of Miami's first two games, with 11 catches overall. Last week, he moved into 10th place on Miami's all-time receiving list with 1,933 yards.
Including Restrepo, five pass-catchers already have five receptions and 50 yards. Complementing the weapons at offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson's disposal is one of the nation's best offensive lines, led by Francis Mauigoa.
Ball State vs Miami Prediction
As over a five-touchdown favorite, Miami is going to need a lot of points if it is going to cover. However, its offense has usually done well in these spots. In its last 11 games against non-Power Four opponents dating back to 2019, Miami has averaged 45.3 points per game.
Ball State has allowed 43.3 points per game in its last six games against Power Four opponents and has given up 44 points in four of those games. With a new group and new coordinator, it nearly allowed that total to an FCS opponent last week. Ball State will have even more issues stopping this Miami passing attack. The Hurricanes also will have the edge on the line of scrimmage and should have success on the ground as well.
The full game total for this game is 55.5, and I would not rule out Miami clearing that number by itself. However, its individual team total is 45.5 points at FanDuel and other leading sportsbooks. The Hurricanes scored 46 points through three quarters last week and may get there again before working through the depth chart.
Pick: Miami Team Total Over 45.5
How to Watch Ball State vs Miami Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 14 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
Ball State vs Miami Betting Trends
- The total in Miami's games this season has gone OVER once and UNDER the other time.
- The total in Ball State's lone game this season went way OVER.
