Ball State vs Toledo Odds
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 51 -105o / -115u | +400 |
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 51 -105o / -115u | -500 |
The first edition of midweek MACtion could not have played out any better for Ball State. Faced with falling in the MAC West standings, the Cardinals pulled off an outright victory as a touchdown underdog over Kent State.
The win put head coach Mike Neu one victory away from bowl season with a showdown against Toledo to decide the West Division on deck. A bowl trip would be the third in four years for Ball State after six previous years without a postseason game.
Toledo comes in off of a much-needed bye week after posting a come-from-behind victory over Eastern Michigan. Backup quarterback Tucker Gleason threw for three touchdowns, while the Rockets defense shut down the Eagles' passing attack.
Toledo’s lone conference loss came after turning the ball over six times and allowing a 17-point fourth-quarter comeback by Buffalo.
A win here gives the Rockets a two-game lead in the division with plenty of tiebreakers in place for a berth in the conference title game.
Ball State Cardinals
The Cardinals used a balanced formula of run and pass to defeat Kent State.
Junior quarterback John Paddock threw 41 times for 254 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Ball State targets posted their best drop rate of the season at 3.8%, as Paddock continues to evade pressure at the low rate of 7.6%.
The Golden Flashes did not have an answer for running back Carson Steele. The junior bulled over defenders en route to his best yards-after-contact performance at nearly five yards.
Steele also created 10 missed tackles to tie a career-high for a single game.
Carson Steele — great speed, elite flow pic.twitter.com/vNkBFsSQPP
— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) November 1, 2022
The best aspect of the offense is the focus on ball protection. The Cardinals rank third nationally in Havoc Allowed, powered by a low number of tackles for loss allowed.
The defense doesn't have attractive statistics from a season-long perspective, but four consecutive opponents have scored 21 points or less against the Cardinals. Ball State ranks top-25 in tackling and defending pass explosiveness.
Edge defenders Tavion Woodard and Sidney Houston Jr. lead the team in pressures and quarterback hurries.
Toledo Rockets
A shoulder injury sidelined who may be the MAC Offensive Player of the Year in quarterback Dequan Finn. Head coach Jason Candle stated Finn would return “at some point,” verifying that the quarterback is questionable for Ball State.
The sophomore has more than 2,200 all-purpose yards with 18 touchdowns in the air and another eight on the ground. During the Buffalo comeback, Finn's final pass attempt was intercepted as the quarterback was flattened and injured.
BUFFALO SURVIVES!
Dequan Finn is forced to scramble, tries to make a play, and Caleb Offord intercepts the pass to end the game!
Bulls 34, Toledo 27 is your final score! pic.twitter.com/HfAtv1EohZ
— Hustle Belt (@HustleBelt) October 22, 2022
The question is the gap between Finn and Gleason in regard to the point spread. Gleason has yet to record a turnover-worthy play in 40 passing attempts this season.
Candle is confident in the backup's grasp of the playbook in his second season with the program. The market adjusted 4.5 points against Eastern Michigan in the wake of Finn’s injury.
The defense continues to be one of the best in the conference, as a nonconference schedule that included Ohio State is paying dividends.
The Rockets rank sixth in tackle grading, an assisting factor in a top-40 rank in Standard Downs Success Rate and defending the explosive play.
If there's an area to attack the defense, it's on the ground. Toledo's rush defenders have allowed 46 runs of 10 yards or more.
The Rockets do struggle with teams that can sustain drives into scoring position, as they allow 4.3 points to opponents who cross the 40-yard line.
Ball State vs Toledo Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ball State and Toledo match up statistically:
Ball State Offense vs Toledo Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 94 | 20 | |
| Line Yards | 71 | 32 | |
| Pass Success | 63 | 68 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 54 | 34 | |
| Havoc | 3 | 24 | |
| Finishing Drives | 99 | 111 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Toledo Offense vs Ball State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 75 | 78 |  |
| Line Yards | 46 | 72 | |
| Pass Success | 38 | 77 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 66 | 95 | |
| Havoc | 91 | 82 | |
| Finishing Drives | 12 | 48 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 24 | 8 |
| PFF Coverage | 59 | 19 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 85 | 71 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.1 (9) | 24.9 (33) |
| Rush Rate | 46.9% (108) | 58.2% (36) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Ball State vs Toledo Betting Pick
Ball State thrives in certain areas on both sides of the ball.
The Cardinals limit explosive pass plays because of a great tackle grade and a national rank of seventh in pass breakups. Slot cornerback Nic Jones ranks fifth nationally in individual forced incompletions, indicating that slot receivers Devin Maddox and DeMeer Blankumsee will be limited in receiving attempts.
Toledo will have advantages in the run game, but 13 fumbles on the season highlight issues with ball protection.
The Toledo defense generally has the advantage in Havoc with a high total of tackles for loss and passes defensed. Because Ball State is one of the best in the nation in limiting turnovers, the Rockets must rely on a pass defense that ranks highly in coverage and tackling.
Steele may find more midweek success for the Cardinals, especially with the Rockets' poor marks against rush explosiveness.
Pick: Ball State +11.5 |
