After another outright upset, Vanderbilt welcomes Ball State to Nashville for a deviation from conference play.
Ball State (2-4) is coming off its first FBS win of the season and is 3-3 against the spread. The Cardinals are also 6-0 to the over this season.
Vanderbilt is America's team. After the 40-35 upset of Alabama, Vanderbilt (4-2) upset Kentucky 20-13. The Commodores are 5-1 against the spread and are also 5-1 to the over.
Vanderbilt is a 25.5-point favorite on the spread with a 58.5-point over/under. The game kicks off at 7 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on SEC Network.
So, let's get to my Ball State vs Vanderbilt predictions and college football picks for their NCAAF Week 8 matchup.
Ball State vs Vanderbilt Prediction
My Vanderbilt vs Ball State best bet is on the over. I'm predicting both these teams to put up plenty of points.
Ball State vs Vanderbilt Odds
| Ball State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+25.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 / -110 | +1400 |
| Vanderbilt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-25.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 / -110 | -3000 |
- Ball State vs Vanderbilt Point Spread: Ball State +25.5 (-110) · Vanderbilt -25.5 (-110)
- Ball State vs Vanderbilt Total: Over/Under 58.5
- Ball State vs Vanderbilt Moneyline: Ball State +1400 · Vanderbilt -3000
Ball State vs Vanderbilt Preview
Ball State Cardinals Betting Preview: Defense is Putrid
It's been an up-and-down season for the Cardinals, but after breaking their five-game losing streak, they enter this game with an opportunity to start a winning streak. They average 27.0 points per game and 4.9 yards per play. They have a 40.5% Success Rate and have averaged 4.41 points per opportunity. One of their main struggles is minimizing Havoc as they allow a 19.0% rate.
The Cardinals run a balanced offense that slightly favors the passing game. They average 36.3 pass attempts and 228.8 passing yards per game. Kadin Semonza is the leader of the offense and completing 66.3% of his passes for an average of 6.5 yards per attempt. Ball State has 38.6% Pass Success Rate and completes 2.5 passes over 20 yards per game.
Running back Braedon Sloan is arguably the most important piece of the offense. He leads the team with 645 total yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns on 118 touches. As part of an offense that attempts 33.3 rushes per game, Sloan is the clear leader with 99 attempts and an average of 4.3 yards per attempt. As a team, the Cardinals have a 43.6% Rush Success Rate behind a line that generates 3.03 line yards per attempt.
Ball State, to say it kindly, has one of the worst defenses in the FBS. The Cardinals allow 8.0 yards per play and 46.0 points per game, which rank 134th and 133rd nationally. Opponents average 504.2 yards of offense against the Cardinals and have a 48.6% Success Rate. Their 5.16 points allowed per opportunity ranks third-worst nationally. To top it all off, the defense also leads the FBS in 20+ yard plays allowed with 54 (13 more than the second-worst team).
Vanderbilt Commodores Betting Preview: Pavia Leading the Way
There's no team with more excitement surrounding it than Vanderbilt. Now riding a two-game winning streak as underdogs, the Commodores get a break and enter this game as a multi-score favorite. Clark Lea's team is averaging 34.7 points per game and 5.7 yards per play. The have a 46.7% Success Rate and average 4.42 points per opportunity. They've managed this scoring level despite playing at the fourth-slowest pace (31.6 seconds per play).
Diego Pavia's transfer from New Mexico State couldn't be going any better. He's used the big stage of SEC play to become a well-known name in college football. And his play justifies this new notoriety.
He's completing 69.1% of his passes for an average of 9.1 yards per attempt. He's also passed for 10 touchdowns and just one interception. Add in his 388 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns, and Pavia is playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the country.
As a team, Vanderbilt has a 50.4% Pass Success Rate and averages 2.17 passes over 20 yards per game. The receiving group is led by Eli Stowers, who has 333 receiving yards, but Vanderbilt has four players with more than 100 receiving yards.
While Pavia has gotten most of the limelight amidst Vanderbilt's run of success, it's the running game, including Pavia's rushing, that makes the offense go. The Commodores average 41.3 rush attempts per game and have averaged 4.0 yards per rush.
Pavia leads the team in rushing, but Sedrick Alexander has added to the success with 339 rushing yards and five scores. Vanderbilt has a 44.6% Rush Success Rate behind an offensive line averaging 2.8 line yards per attempt.
Defensive improvement was expected when Vanderbilt brought in Lea. And to an extent, that has happened. The Commodores allow an average of 23.5 points per game and 5.7 yards per play. They also allow a 41.0% Success Rate and have given up an average of 4.14 points per opportunity.
Ball State vs Vanderbilt
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ball State and Vanderbilt match up statistically:
Ball State Offense vs. Vanderbilt Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 74 | 51 | |
| Line Yards | 72 | 39 | |
| Pass Success | 100 | 72 | |
| Havoc | 99 | 60 | |
| Finishing Drives | 36 | 97 | |
| Quality Drives | 68 | 90 | |
Vanderbilt Offense vs. Ball State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 64 | 116 | |
| Line Yards | 99 | 122 | |
| Pass Success | 13 | 133 | |
| Havoc | 66 | 98 | |
| Finishing Drives | 35 | 132 | |
| Quality Drives | 12 | 132 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 130 | 112 |
| PFF Coverage | 134 | 84 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 123 | 28 |
| Middle 8 | 129 | 90 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.1 (86) | 31.6 (131) |
| Rush Rate | 48% (112) | 66% (9) |
Ball State vs Vanderbilt Pick & Prediction
Both the public and sharps appear to be fading the lovable Commodores. Approximately 53% of bets and 56% of the money are on Ball State to cover this massive spread.
While the total hasn't moved from it's open (58.5), everyone is betting the under, despite the history of these teams. Approximately 62% of bets and 76% of the money favors the under.
My preferred play is to go against the grain and back the over. Ball State is arguably the worst defense in the FBS and Vanderbilt's offense will have no trouble moving the ball against a MAC opponent that struggles with explosive plays. Ball State has proven capable of finishing drives once it crosses the 50 and, despite the recent success, Vanderbilt has allowed points.
Pick: Over 58.5 | Play to 60
Ball State vs Vanderbilt Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | FirstBank Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 19 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | SEC Network |
Ball State vs Vanderbilt will be played at FirstBank Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 19, at 7 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on SEC Network.
