Welcome to our expert debate for college football Week 5 and our Baylor vs BYU predictions and picks for which team will cover the spread.
Throughout the 2024 college football season, our betting experts will preview the biggest marquee matchups and go back and forth on the cases for both teams to cover the spread, giving you all the information you need for your college football picks.
Baylor vs BYU Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | +135 |
Why Baylor Bears Can Cover the Spread
My whole handicap on this game boils down to one singular point:
Baylor should’ve won last week, and BYU should’ve lost.
The Bears missed a 45-yard game-sealing field goal with under four minutes left. Then, Shedeur Sanders completed a 45-yard hail-mary touchdown to send the game to overtime. Then, Dominic Richardson fumbled the ball on the goal line in overtime.
What an incomprehensible, flukey collapse.
Conversely, the Cougars were outgained 416 total yards to 241 at home by the Wildcats. They won because they managed two non-offensive touchdowns and two short-field touchdown drives set up off interceptions.
During a six-minute stretch spanning overtime, the Cougars scored 28 points on 56 total yards of offense.
What an incomprehensible, dumb win.
The market has overreacted to these two flukey results. I’d make Baylor closer to a five-point favorite on Saturday.
Why BYU Cougars Can Cover the Spread
I know what Tanner is going to say.
This is a great spot for Baylor off a flukey loss, while BYU is off a lucky win.
To be fair, he's not totally wrong.
However, Baylor is just a terrible football team.
I understand buying low in the market, but sometimes a stock is low because a company is flailing and about to go out of business.
The Bears went just 3-9 last season, losing their final five games. This year, they are 2-2 with losses in both games against Power 4 teams. They have major issues on the offensive side of the ball.
Offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes left for Kansas in the offseason, and switching to a spread scheme under new offensive coordinator Jake Spavital hasn't worked.
Baylor ranks 117th nationally in Success Rate and sits outside of the top 100 in both Pass Success Rate and Rush Success Rate. The Bears have been held to 364 yards per game and 268.5 yards against Power 4 opponents.
Things will not likely improve after the injury to starting quarterback Dequan Finn.
Backup Sawyer Robertson started four games last year and threw just two touchdowns with four interceptions. Baylor went 1-3 in his starts, with the lone win against an FCS opponent.
Say what you want about BYU’s win last week against Kansas State, but the defense has looked excellent. The Cougars rank 21st nationally in Success Rate allowed and have yet to allow more than 15 points to any opponent.
This defense took a small step forward last season, its first year under new defensive coordinator Jay Hill, and it looks like it has taken an even bigger one this year. BYU has allowed just 4.2 yards per play to its opponents, the 16th-best nationally.
We have seen this defense create Havoc and force its opponents into turnovers, and I expect them to get after Robertson and rattle the inexperienced back early and often, forcing him into mistakes.
BYU is 4-0 this season and much better than people anticipated. Misleading win or not, the market has still not caught up to them.
Why Bears Are Better Bet
McGrath: I disagree with you on one colossal point:
Losing Finn is a good thing! Things have already improved after the injury and the switch to Robertson.
Finn is an athletic guy and was a talented passer in the MAC, but he’s not a Power 4-level pocket passer. Robertson has completed 64% of his passes for 9.3 YPA, three touchdowns and no picks.
He can sit back there and actually huck it.
And his ability to actually throw the ball has opened up Baylor’s ground game, as the Bears have rushed for 396 yards at just over five YPC across Sawyer’s two starts.
Baylor’s ground game could be the key against BYU. The Cougars boast an excellent secondary, but it's been weak on the defensive line for years. It tried to add size and depth to that unit in the offseason, but it has yet to pay off, as the Cougars rank 78th in EPA per Rush allowed and 54th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
Baylor has a balanced offense that can attack BYU’s weak points, while BYU’s offense is entirely one-dimensional. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff looks sensational, and the Cougars rank top-50 nationally in most passing metrics.
However, they also rank outside the top 100 in EPA per Rush, the top 100 in Rush Explosiveness, the top 80 in Rush Success Rate, and the top 70 in Line Yards. The Cougars have managed 545 rushing yards through four games at a paltry four YPC.
To make matters worse, top running back LJ Martin is out for this weekend.
The shorthanded Cougars now have to battle an experienced Baylor defense that’s improved mightily after Dave Aranda started calling plays again.
In the offseason, the Bears returned nine starters from last year’s stop unit, including their top four tacklers, four secondary starters and some key linebackers.
They rank second nationally in Success Rate allowed, including fourth against the run, fourth against the pass, third on Standard Downs and third on Passing Downs. They rank top 15 in Finishing Drives allowed and top 40 in Defensive Line Yards.
They can do it all, and that doesn't bode well for Retzlaff and BYU’s one-sided offense. Aranda can drop eight in coverage against Retzlaff, and the Cougars would be lucky to generate three YPC.
Not only do I love the spot for Baylor, but I quite like the matchup.
Why Cougars Are Better Bet
Ianniello: Should Baylor have won last week?
The Bears were outgained by 118 yards and managed just a 35% Success Rate in the game compared to a 45% mark for Colorado.
Hail Mary’s are very fluky plays. But when you lose track of a receiver on two Hail Mary attempts in a row, it becomes less of a fluke and more about your defense being inadequate and poorly coached.
Baylor missed a field goal because their kicker stinks. He is just 39-for-56 (69.6%) in his career and 12-25 (48%) from 40-plus yards. It wasn’t a fluke, he is proven it’s more likely than not he will miss from that range.
The Bears fumbled going into the end zone because they're careless with the football. They already have seven turnovers this season — only eight teams have fumbled more than Baylor.
A fluke is defined as: “an unlikely chance occurrence, especially a surprising piece of luck.”
Well, all of these things will likely happen to Baylor again because the Bears aren't a good football team.
Baylor Football Spread: Why Bears Will Cover
McGrath: You want to talk about turnovers?
BYU is +4 in turnovers this year. The Cougars have lost one fumble this year and recovered three. They’ve snagged five picks and thrown three despite Retzlaff posting six turnover-worthy plays.
Sure, Baylor’s had a few turnovers, but the only two interceptions came from Finn.
Although Baylor has fumbled the ball a few times, the defense has held firm despite being trotted out on the field so often. Imagine what will happen to BYU’s defense once turnover regression hits Retzlaff.
I’m not going to defend Baylor’s kicker. However, I will mention that the Bears rank 29th nationally in SP+’s Special Teams ranking, while the Cougars rank 34th.
BYU Football Spread: Why Cougars Will Cover
Ianniello: I’m not convinced that Robertson will open up the struggling Baylor rushing attack.
The Bears ran the ball against a bad Air Force team. Still, they managed only four YPC against Colorado — with 45 of their total rushing yards coming on a big touchdown run. Take out that explosive play, and the Bears averaged three YPC.
I appreciate you saying Retzlaff looks sensational. It’s the smartest thing Tanner has said in this article.
Retzlaff has thrown nine touchdowns on the season, averaging 8.6 yards per attempt. Retzlaff has excellent chemistry with leading receiver Chase Roberts, but the Cougars have nine players averaging at least 10.5 receiving per game.
BYU has struggled to run the ball this season, largely due to LJ Martin’s injury. But the Cougars may have found an answer last week.
Freshman Sione Moa got his first career start and put up 76 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries, averaging over five yards per carry. If they find something with Moa going forward, this offense will be much more balanced.
I am not buying the improvement of the Baylor defense — at least not to this extent.
Of course, the Bears' defensive numbers are great against the pass. Their first three games came against Tarleton State, Utah in a game Cam Rising got hurt, and Air Force. They only faced 46 total pass attempts in the first three games. But then Colorado torched them for 341 yards and two scores through the air and added three scores on the ground.
This was one of the worst pass defenses in the country last season. Although they have had an easy start to the season, they still rank 120th in PFF's Coverage grades. I expect Retzlaff to have a lot more success against this Baylor defense than Robertson will against this BYU secondary that ranks in the top 10 in the country in passing success rate.
While Tanner says the BYU offense is one-dimensional, the Baylor offense is zero-dimensional. They stink at everything.
Closing Arguments for Baylor vs BYU Spread
McGrath: Bet Baylor -3
Thanks to some good fortune, the 4-0 Cougars are overvalued. And road ‘dogs coming off a win in which they were outgained by 100-plus yards have covered the spread at a 37% rate since 2005, proving their overrated-ness.
The 2-2 Bears are undervalued, thanks to some bad fortune.
This is the easiest buy-low, sell-high spot in Week 5. Don’t overthink it, folks.
I like where the Bears are headed with Robertson under center and Aranda calling plays. Meanwhile, I don’t trust BYU’s one-dimensional offense.
The Bears should be five-point favorites on Saturday. Sic ‘em.
Ianniello: Bet BYU +3
We can talk about situational spots, let downs, and buying low until we are blue.
Ultimately, BYU is just a better football team than Baylor is.
That’s what I’m betting on.
The Bears are 15-23 in conference games and 2-8 in Big 12 games over the past two seasons.
BYU is 4-0 on the field and against the spread this season. The market has not adjusted to how much improvement the Cougars have made.
The Cougars blew out a top-15 team last week and now are underdogs of more than a field goal against a bottom-three team in the Big 12.
How is that an overreaction?
Kalani Sitake is 14-8 (63.6%) ATS as a road underdog since becoming the head coach at BYU. Meanwhile, Aranda is just 20-28-1 ATS as a favorite at Baylor.
Of all the mismatches in his game, the biggest one might be on the sideline.
