The Baylor Bears (2-1) will head to Boulder, Colorado, to rekindle an old Big 12 rivalry against the Colorado Buffaloes (2-1) this Saturday. This game is set to take place at Folsom Field at 8:00 p.m. ET on FOX.
Colorado is a slight favorite with the line set at just 1.5. This game also has an over/under set at just 51.5 points, which is the second-lowest total for a Colorado game in the Deion Sanders era and lowest in a game in which Shedeur Sanders is slated to play with the Buffs.
That leads me to my favorite angle to play in this game, so let’s dive into my Baylor vs. Colorado prediction.
Baylor vs Colorado Prediction
- Baylor vs Colorado Pick: Over 50.5
My Baylor vs Colorado best bet is on the over with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Baylor vs Colorado Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 50.5 -105 / -115 | +110 |
| Colorado Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 50.5 -105 / -115 | -130 |
- Baylor vs Colorado Point Spread: Baylor +2 (-110) · Colorado -2 (-110)
- Baylor vs Colorado Total: Over/Under 50.5
- Baylor vs Colorado Moneyline: Baylor +110 · Colorado -130
Baylor vs Colorado Preview
Baylor Bears Betting Preview: Is This Defense Legit?
Nothing has come easy for Baylor's offense this season as the Bears rank 85th in success rate and 108th in finishing drives. They're 80th in rushing success rate and 79th in passing success rate, as they've been equally bad in both facets.
After starting Toledo transfer Dequan Finn for the first couple weeks of the season, coach Dave Aranda made the switch last weekend to instead go with Sawyer Robertson under center.
Robertson delivered, completing 18-of-24 passes for 244 yards. Robertson didn’t pass for any touchdowns, but also didn’t turn the ball over and ran for a touchdown.
This helped Baylor post a 73rd-percentile success rate and 7.28 yards per play against Air Force in a 31-3 victory last weekend. It’s hard to say how this may carry over to the Bears' matchup with Colorado, but the Buffaloes aren’t exactly known for their defense, so it may be another good matchup for Robertson to flash.
If you're looking at just the raw defensive metrics, you'd think Baylor is one of the best teams in the nation. The Bears rank second in success rate allowed and 12th in defensive finishing drives. They're fourth in success rate allowed against both the run and the pass.
However, severe adjustments need to be made for the context behind those outputs. Air Force is fielding one of its worst offenses in years after returning only two starters and is averaging just over 10 points per game this season, despite facing an FCS team already.
The Bears have also played Tarleton State from the FCS level and Utah. On the surface, holding Utah to a second-percentile success rate and no points in the second half seems great, but the Utes' starting quarterback was injured in the second quarter of that game.
It’s possible that Baylor's defense is actually one of the better units in the Big 12, but I'll need to see more from the Bears against an offense like Colorado’s to believe in them going forward.
Colorado Buffaloes Betting Preview: Can Offensive Line Improve?
Colorado’s offense is known for its passing attack with Sanders throwing the ball at the highest rate in the nation (70%). This has resulted in the Buffaloes ranking 32nd in passing success rate and 35th in success rate.
However, the passing game has lacked explosiveness as the Buffs are just 102nd in passing explosiveness and 64th in passing PPA.
Following the loss to Nebraska, Sanders notoriously threw his offensive line under the bus. That unit ranks 85th in PFF pass blocking grade and 79th in PFF run blocking grade this season.
Luckily for the Buffaloes, Baylor ranks outside of the top 50 in both PFF run defense and pass rushing grades, so it shouldn’t be quite as tough on the fronts as Nebraska.
Colorado’s defense ranks 64th in success rate allowed and 50th in finishing drives. The unit is 57th in success rate against the run and 75th in success rate against the pass, which seems to be an improvement from where it was last season.
Baylor vs Colorado
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Baylor and Colorado match up statistically:
Baylor Offense vs. Colorado Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 83 | 57 | |
| Line Yards | 95 | 41 | |
| Pass Success | 79 | 92 | |
| Havoc | 95 | 66 | |
| Finishing Drives | 97 | 50 | |
| Quality Drives | 82 | 65 | |
Colorado Offense vs. Baylor Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 57 | 4 | |
| Line Yards | 99 | 35 | |
| Pass Success | 32 | 3 | |
| Havoc | 88 | 124 | |
| Finishing Drives | 88 | 12 | |
| Quality Drives | 86 | 11 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 28 | 2 |
| PFF Coverage | 91 | 42 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 20 | 97 |
| Middle 8 | 46 | 65 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.8 (23) | 25.0 (27) |
| Rush Rate | 62% (30) | 34% (134) |
Baylor vs Colorado Pick & Prediction
I think this game is a great spot for an over.
Baylor’s offense has been terrible by the metrics, but with the change at quarterback and another week in the new offensive system, I think there's hope for the unit to be able to put points on the board against a Colorado defense that ranks 86th in SP+.
On the other side, Baylor’s defense is well regarded by many metrics, but I don’t think it's quite as good as the metrics suggest.
At just 50.5 points, I love taking the over in this game and would take it all the way up to 54.5.
Pick: Over 50.5 (Play to 54.5)
How to Watch Baylor vs Colorado Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Folsom Field, Boulder, Colorado |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 21 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Baylor vs Colorado Betting Trends
- 54% of the bets are on Colorado against the spread against Baylor.
- The money is 50-50 on the spread, as well.
