After coming into this season with the hottest seat in the country, Baylor head coach Dave Aranda shockingly has the Bears (6-4, 4-3 Big 12) eligible for a bowl game. They have won 4 straight games and the offense is humming.
Now, they have an in-state matchup against the Houston Cougars (4-6, 3-4).
Houston is a rebuild in the first season under new head coach Willie Fritz. However, at 4-6, it has already eclipsed its preseason win total of 3.5 and has a chance to qualify for a bowl by winning out.
Baylor enters as a -7.5 favorite with an over/under of 50.5.
Let's dive into my Baylor vs. Houston predictions and college football picks for this Big 12 battle on Saturday, Nov. 23.
Baylor vs Houston Prediction
- Baylor vs Houston Pick: Baylor -7.5
My Houston vs. Baylor best bet is on the Bears to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Baylor vs Houston Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | -305 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 / -110 | +245 |
- Baylor vs Houston Point Spread: Baylor -7.5 (-110) · Houston +7.5 (-110)
- Baylor vs Houston Over/Under: 50.5 Points
- Baylor vs Houston Moneyline: Baylor -305 · Houston +245
Baylor vs Houston Preview
Baylor Bears Betting Preview: Well-Balanced Offense
Baylor’s success this season has largely been the result of superb quarterback play from Sawyer Robertson. After Toledo transfer Dequan Finn went down with an injury, Robertson took over and has thrown 20 touchdowns with just four interceptions.
Over the team’s winning streak, Robertson has 11 touchdowns and just one pick.
The offense is well-balanced, ranking top-50 in Pass and Rush Success Rate.
Receiver Josh Cameron leads the team with eight touchdowns and averages over 15.4 yards per catch, and running back Bryson Washington has rushed for 10 scores on the ground with an average of 6.1 yards per carry.
Aranda has always been a defensive guy, and after putting out a horrible unit last year, he has turned things around a little bit this season.
Baylor’s defense has been terrific at defending the run, ranking 14th in the country, but it still has a lot of issues against the pass. Nearly every team that has moved the ball on Baylor has been able to score, turning most of its games into shootouts.
Houston Cougars Betting Preview: Very Specific Strengths
Houston has been better than expected this season, although it certainly is not its offense doing the heavy lifting. The Cougars rank outside of the top 100 in nearly every category, including 115th in Pass Success Rate and 131st in Rush Success Rate.
Most concerning is that Houston ranks 134th — dead last — in Finishing Drives.
Fritz made the switch from quarterback Donovan Smith to Louisiana transfer Zeon Chriss, but he's not much of a passer. Chriss has just four passing touchdowns and four interceptions on the season and is averaging 60.2 yards per game in the air.
What Chriss does provide is a rushing ability. He has rushed for 175 yards in the last three games and creates an RPO attack with running back Re’Shaun Sanford II.
It's never going to be the offense winning Houston games, though. The Cougars want to run the ball and play defense.
And the defense has been very strong. Houston ranks 33rd in the country against the run and has allowed more than 27 points just twice all season. It's are strong up front but not as lockdown in the secondary.
Baylor vs Houston Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Baylor and Houston match up statistically:
Baylor Offense vs. Houston Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 47 | 33 | |
| Line Yards | 37 | 30 | |
| Pass Success | 28 | 64 | |
| Havoc | 10 | 51 | |
| Finishing Drives | 36 | 54 | |
| Quality Drives | 71 | 52 | |
Houston Offense vs. Baylor Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 131 | 14 | |
| Line Yards | 124 | 51 | |
| Pass Success | 115 | 85 | |
| Havoc | 132 | 83 | |
| Finishing Drives | 134 | 99 | |
| Quality Drives | 91 | 89 |  |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 93 | 76 |
| PFF Coverage | 124 | 68 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 54 | 123 |
| Middle 8 | 93 | 86 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.7 (12) | 30.6 (129) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (56) | 62% (28) |
Baylor vs Houston Pick & Prediction
This is a very good matchup for a Baylor team that's red-hot.
Robertson has been playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the country over the last month. As solid as the Houston defense has been, it's much better at defending the run. Robertson should be able to find success against this secondary.
And on the other side of the ball, this matchup sets up perfectly for the Bears defense. Baylor has been terrific against the run this season, ranking 14th in Rush Success Rate allowed. It has its issues against the pass, but Houston can't throw the ball at all.
The Bears will be able to stack the box and take away this Cougars rushing attack.
Houston is averaging just 14 points per game this season and has eclipsed 25 points just twice all year.
The Bears have scored at least 37 points in in four straight games and should pull away from the Cougars, who will struggle to get back into it if they fall behind early.
Pick: Baylor -8 or Better
Baylor vs Houston Start Time, TV Channel, Location, How to Watch
| Location: | TDECU Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 23 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 |
Baylor travels to TDECU Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 23 to face Houston at 7 p.m. ET on FS1.
Baylor vs Houston Betting Trends
Baylor vs Houston Weather
