The No. 16 Iowa State Cyclones (4-0) look to remain undefeated when they host the Baylor Bears (2-3) at Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday. Kickoff is at 7:30 p.m. ET on FOX.
Baylor is in a state of disarray at the moment. It completely choked away the game against Colorado two weeks ago and then got hammered at home against BYU last Saturday, 34-28.
Dave Aranda's seat continues to get hotter by the day, so Bears really need a response in Ames, otherwise it'll be three straight losses.
Iowa State got a dominant 20-0 win over Houston on Saturday to move to 4-0 on the season. Matt Campbell and the Cyclones were one of the dark horses to win the Big 12 before the season, and the way things have opened up in conference, they now look more like one of the favorites.
However, they have to win games like this as big favorites at home if they want to get to the Big 12 Championship game.
The Clones are -11.5 favorites on the spread and are -500 on the moneyline. The total is set for 45 points in this game.
Here's my Baylor vs. Iowa State predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Baylor vs Iowa State Odds, Spread, Pick
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11.5 -110 | 45 -110 / -110 | +350 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11.5 -110 | 45 -110 / -110 | -455 |
- Baylor vs Iowa State spread: Iowa State -11.5
- Baylor vs Iowa State over/under: 45 points
- Baylor vs Iowa State moneyline: Iowa State -455
- Baylor vs Iowa State pick: Iowa State -11.5
Baylor vs Iowa State Preview
Baylor Football
Dequan Finn is more than likely going to miss another game, which means that Sawyer Robertson is going to be the starting quarterback for the fourth straight game
The last two games for Robertson haven't been very good, and the biggest issue has been turnovers.
Against Colorado and BYU, Robertson had four turnover-worthy plays compared to just one big-time throw. He did get to 324 yards passing against BYU, because the Bears got behind early and were forced to the ball for pretty much the entire game. Robertson had 49 pass attempts.
Baylor needs to run the ball better if it wants to be better offensively. It's 100th in rushing success rate because the offensive line hasn't done a good enough job opening up running lanes for its backs, ranking 94th in offensive line yards.
Baylor brought back almost everyone on the defensive side of the ball, but it's been pretty shaky against the pass, just like it was last season.
Playing Tarleton State and Air Force is going to make all of Baylor's metrics against the pass look good, but Shedeur Sanders and Jake Retzlaff torched the Bears the last two games for over 500 yards passing and five touchdowns.
Last season, Baylor was one of the worst secondaries in the country, ranking 128th in EPA/pass allowed. This season, the Bears are 121st in terms of a PFF coverage grade.
Iowa State Football
Last season, the Cyclones were built on big plays, as they led the country in explosiveness.
The offense hasn't been nearly as explosive this year, but that's a good thing because the unit is much more consistent this season.
In 2023, the Clones were outside the top 100 in success rate, whereas this season, their offense is 48th in success rate.
Quarterback Rocco Becht has been solid this season, with the Iowa game being the only one in which he's really struggled. Overall, for the season, he's averaging 8.3 yards per attempt and has seven touchdowns compared to only two interceptions.
He's also very good when throwing from a crowded pocket, as he's top-20 in terms of a PFF passing grade when under pressure.
He'll be the key to this game, as Baylor has done a good job of stopping the run, ranking 11th in rushing success rate allowed.
I know a big zero on the scoreboard looks impressive, but Houston actually wasn't completely helpless offensively in its game against ISU. In fact, for the game, the Cougars were able to average 5.7 yards per carry, as the weakness of this Iowa State defense has been stopping the run.
The Cyclones are 57th in rushing success rate allowed and 62nd in rushing explosiveness allowed, which could give Baylor an avenue here to have some success offensively.
The reason Iowa State's defense has been so good is because it's been able to limit teams' scoring opportunities.
The Cyclones are third in the country in finishing drives allowed. They've only allowed 1.76 points per scoring opportunity to their opponents, which is really impressive, but also isn't sustainable over the course of a full season.
Baylor vs Iowa State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Baylor and Iowa State match up statistically:
Baylor Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 100 | 52 | |
| Line Yards | 94 | 20 | |
| Pass Success | 73 | 2 | |
| Havoc | 82 | 31 | |
| Finishing Drives | 95 | 3 | |
| Quality Drives | 103 | 4 | |
Iowa State Offense vs. Baylor Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 74 | 11 | |
| Line Yards | 68 | 41 | |
| Pass Success | 30 | 22 | |
| Havoc | 24 | 86 | |
| Finishing Drives | 34 | 37 |  |
| Quality Drives | 23 | 34 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 32 | 92 |
| PFF Coverage | 121 | 15 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 36 | 106 |
| Middle 8 | 68 | 27 |
| Seconds per Play | 24.1 (14) | 29.2 (104) |
| Rush Rate | 57% (44) | 54% (52) |
Baylor vs Iowa State Prediction
Even with the struggles that Baylor has had on the offensive side of the ball, I think the total is a little too low here.
The Bears showed last week against BYU that if they fall behind early, they're going to throw the ball over and over again. Not only that, but they're going to play fast from the start because they're 14th in the country in seconds per play.
That isn't really going work here against Iowa State's elite secondary with high wind gusts in the forecast.
Baylor's run defense may be 11th in the country in success rate, but the Bears have actually been giving up a lot of big plays, ranking outside the top 100 in rushing explosiveness allowed.
That — and their secondary — has been exposed in the last two games and gives Iowa State a pretty big advantage offensively.
The winds are going to be blowing at close to 17 mph in this game, which means if Baylor isn't able to run the football, Robertson will be throwing into a top-20 secondary. That's bad news, and I have Iowa State projected at -13.7, so I like the value on the Cyclones at -11.5.
Pick: Iowa State -11.5
How to Watch Baylor vs Iowa State Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Jack Trice Stadium |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Baylor vs Iowa State Betting Trends
- 64% of the bets and 90% of the money is on Baylor to cover the spread against Iowa State.
- 79% of the bets and 70% of the money is on the over to hit.
Baylor vs Iowa State Weather
