Baylor vs Texas Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -365 |
Baylor’s chances to make the Big 12 Championship Game were crushed last weekend in a gut-wrenching loss to No. 4 TCU. The Bears put together a valiant effort against a top-tier opponent but came up just short in the end.
Despite the ups and downs that Texas football has had this season, the Longhorns still have a chance to make it to the Big 12 Championship. The only way that this would be possible would be with a Texas victory in this game over Baylor and a Kansas victory over Kansas State.
This isn’t super far-fetched, but it will take some good luck on Texas’ side. The Longhorns sit at +1000 to win the Big 12 as of writing.
Baylor Bears
Bears Offense
This Bears offense has been solid this year, mostly on the back of their running game. Baylor ranks 22nd in Offensive Success Rate and 27th in points per opportunity. On the ground, it ranks 19th in Success Rate, 23rd in PPA and 21st in Explosiveness.
Baylor runs at the 30th-highest rate in FBS, so it’s likely that its game plan will once again be centered around their strength on the ground. Texas has a stout run defense, so this may hamper the Bears’ offensive production.
Through the air, Baylor has been successful as well, but quarterback Blake Shapen does tend to let them down from time to time.
The Bears rank 20th in Success Rate and 34th in Passing PPA. However, they rank just 85th in Passing Explosiveness. This would be the route to use to attack Texas, but whether Shapen can get that done is another question.
Bears Defense
Similar to the offense, Baylor’s defense excels in the running game. The Bears rank 45th in Rushing Success Rate, 41st in PPA and 32nd in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed.
This Bears defense will need to step up if they hope to stop Bijan Robinson, who just ran for 243 yards and four touchdowns against Kansas last weekend.
The way to target this Baylor defense is through the air. They rank just 88th in Passing Success Rate. However, because of their ability to limit explosive passing plays (39th), they are 64th in PPA.
Texas Longhorns
Longhorns Offense
Texas’ numbers for the season on offense are strong, and that would fail to account for the times that Quinn Ewers was sidelined due to injury. With Ewers in the game, the Longhorns have been even more efficient on offense.
Overall this team ranks 25th in Offensive Success Rate and is the 25th highest-rated offense by SP+. It's fairly well-rounded, as both its run and pass rates are middle of the pack.
Texas is effective at attacking in both ways as well. The Longhorns rank 26th in Pass Success Rate and 38th in Passing PPA compared to 31st and 27th in those two figures when running the ball.
Behind Robinson, this Texas offense has the second-highest PFF Rushing Grade in the country, at 93.8, despite ranking 93rd in Run Blocking Grade. Robinson has rushed for 1,401 yards and 16 touchdowns on the season, which ranks sixth and fifth in the country, respectively.
This hasn’t been an overly explosive offense this year. Texas ranks 97th in Passing Explosiveness and 55th in Rushing Explosiveness, which puts them at 84th overall.
With Baylor being effective at preventing these explosive plays, the Longhorns may not pull away from the Bears at all if they aren’t able to generate these explosive gains.
Longhorns Defense
As mentioned above, the strength of this Texas defense lines up directly with how Baylor will want to attack. Texas ranks ninth in Rushing Success Rate on defense and 13th in Rushing PPA allowed. It also boasts the eighth-highest PFF Run Defense Grade.
The Longhorns' one weakness against the run is allowing explosive plays (70th), so it’s possible that one of these Baylor backs could get free on a long one.
Texas hasn't been quite as strong against the pass.
It ranks 55th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 51st in PPA. The Longhorns have similar issues guarding explosive plays through the air, ranking 79th in Passing Explosiveness. However, Baylor’s passing attack isn’t potent enough for me to worry about this unit being in trouble.
Baylor vs Texas Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Baylor and Texas match up statistically:
Baylor Offense vs. Texas Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 19 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 32 | 26 | |
| Pass Success | 20 | 55 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 16 | 14 |  |
| Havoc | 38 | 52 | |
| Finishing Drives | 27 | 12 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Texas Offense vs. Baylor Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 45 | |
| Line Yards | 54 | 82 | |
| Pass Success | 26 | 88 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 20 | 50 | |
| Havoc | 16 | 64 | |
| Finishing Drives | 26 | 81 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 45 | 50 |
| PFF Coverage | 25 | 67 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 35 | 39 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.6 (70) | 24.5 (26) |
| Rush Rate | 58.5% (30) | 54.2% (67) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Baylor vs Texas Betting Pick
I like this matchup for the Longhorns as the Bears won’t be able to rely on their rushing game against this defense, and I don’t trust Shapen to take advantage through the air.
On the other side, I believe that Ewers will have an efficient day through the air when facing a Baylor team that has struggled to defend the pass this season.
SP+ has this spread set at Texas -11, and I like the value this presents on the consensus spread of Texas -8.5. This is a potential letdown spot for Baylor coming off of a deflating home loss a week ago, while Texas is still battling for a chance at the conference championship.
I would take the Longhorns up to -10 in this game.
Pick: Texas -8.5 (Play to -10) |
