West Virginia vs Baylor Odds
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 55 -110o / -110u | +140 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 55 -110o / -110u | -165 |
We’re now hitting the point of the season where we start to get some interesting weeknight matchups.
In this one, two Big 12 teams will face off in West Virginia with hopes of winning this wide-open conference. Both WVU and Baylor are coming off of a bye week, so there are no rest differences to worry about here.
However, there is one team that I think is just on a higher level and should be able to cover this spread.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Mountaineers Offense
West Virginia’s offense has had a moderate amount of success under new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell and quarterback JT Daniels.
The Mountaineers currently rank 43rd in Offensive Success Rate and have been best on the ground, ranking 32nd in Rushing Success Rate.
The issue with this is that Baylor has one of the best rushing defenses in the country and should be able to stop the Mountaineers. Daniels being able to open up the passing game will be a key to them scoring points.
WVU did post a 66th-percentile Offensive Success Rate while playing from behind against Texas. The Mountaineers also dominated Virginia Tech offensively.
Against Pitt, they struggled to pass at times and the offense had a remarkably terrible day against a questionable KU defense.
The saving grace for WVU’s offense is that Baylor has struggled to defend the pass this year, so if Mountaineers can be effective, there may be a path to victory.
Mountaineers Defense
The West Virginia defense is ranked 17th in Success Rate, but did struggle in its most recent game against Texas. The Longhorns were able to post a 98th-percentile Offensive Success Rate in their domination of the Mountaineers.
In its first three games though, West Virginia had just slightly below average performances against two good offenses in Pitt and Kansas, as well as completely shutting down a bad Virginia Tech offense.
Outside of the Virginia Tech game, West Virginia has allowed 38 points or more in each of its FBS games.
If you’re backing the Mountaineers this weekend, you are hoping that they will be able to limit Baylor’s offense to just a moderate amount of success and that the Bears aren’t able to replicate Texas’ offensive performance.
However, since West Virginia ranks 125th in PFF coverage grade and Baylor has the sixth-best passing grade, I think that Baylor has the advantage here.
Baylor Bears
Bears Offense
Baylor’s offense has looked very good this season against some solid defenses.
The Bears rank 19th in Offensive Success Rate and have the No. 34 offense, per SP+. Both their passing and rushing attacks have been strong, ranking 20th and 24th in Success Rate, respectively.
West Virginia will be on the lower end of defenses that Baylor has faced this year.
The opponent hasn't seemed to matter too much for Baylor, though. The Bears have been remarkably consistent, posting Offensive Success Rates between the 76th and 86th percentile in every game so far.
They have done this against two defenses ranked in the top 32 by SP+ (Oklahoma State and Iowa State), as well as two defenses ranked lower in BYU (55th) and Texas State (78th).
At this point, it would seem like we know almost exactly what to expect from Baylor’s offense in this matchup, as it will probably be very similar to its other performances.
Bears Defense
This defense looks good overall, as it ranks 25th in Success Rate and third against the run.
However, it has a glaring weakness against the pass, ranking 72nd in Defensive Passing Success Rate.
Iowa State, Oklahoma State and BYU all posted Success Rates between the 70th and 80th percentile against this defense. These teams are ranked 70th, 17th and 45th in SP+ offenses, signaling that Baylor has had this issue against everyone.
Since West Virginia passes at the 40th-highest rate in the country, Baylor will need to figure out these issues in order to win.
West Virginia vs Baylor Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how West Virginia and Baylor match up statistically:
Baylor Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 20 | 61 | |
| Line Yards | 63 | 67 |  |
| Pass Success | 70 | 106 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 34 | 59 | |
| Havoc | 54 | 109 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 111 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
West Virginia Offense vs. Baylor Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 22 | 10 | |
| Line Yards | 31 | 18 | |
| Pass Success | 53 | 65 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 4 | 37 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 36 | |
| Finishing Drives | 32 | 45 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 25 | 36 |
| PFF Coverage | 29 | 125 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 67 | 53 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.7 (70) | 25.7 (47) |
| Rush Rate | 57.5% (37) | 49.4% (89) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
West Virginia vs Baylor Betting Pick
Overall, I believe that Baylor is the better team here. The Bears are in the hunt for the Big 12 Championship, while West Virginia may struggle to get to a bowl game.
The Bears are just the better team, and this number is too short at 3.5.
Playing this number, I feel confident in Baylor winning this game handily and moving to 4-2 on the season.
