The Baylor Bears (5-4) travel to Morgantown, West Virginia, on Saturday, Nov. 16 to play the West Virginia Mountaineers (5-4) in this NCAAF Week 12 Big 12 battle.
The game kicks off at 4 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on ESPN2.
Baylor will look to win its fourth straight game, while West Virginia will look to win its third.
Read on for my Baylor vs West Virginia predictions and college football picks.
Baylor vs West Virginia Prediction
- Baylor vs West Virginia Pick: Baylor -1.5
My Baylor vs West Virginia best bet is on the Bears to cover the short spread, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Baylor vs West Virginia Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 / -110 | -120 |
| West Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 / -110 | +100 |
- Baylor vs West Virginia Point Spread: Baylor -1.5 (-110) · West Virginia +1.5 (-110)
- Baylor vs West Virginia Total: Over/Under 59.5
- Baylor vs West Virginia Moneyline: Baylor -120 · West Virginia +100
Baylor vs West Virginia Preview
I'm not sure many realize how well Baylor is playing of late. After a blowout loss at Iowa State, the Bears have won three straight and will come in fresh off the bye week for their trip to Morgantown.
Keep in mind that their two losses prior to Iowa State came against the two teams sitting atop the Big 12 standings in Colorado and BYU — both by one possession with the former coming in overtime after the Buffaloes completed a Hail Mary as time expired to end regulation.
Meanwhile, the Mountaineers will return home after a grueling two-game road trip that saw them win back-to-back one-possession games against a reeling Arizona team and Cincinnati.
While impressive on the surface, the 'Neers had no business winning last week in Cincinnati. They simply benefited from extreme turnover luck in a game they finished with 15 fewer first downs and under 250 total yards of offense. Just take a look at how they scored:
- Absolutely gifted pick-six
- 31-yard FG drive following a Cincy fumble
- 41-yard TD drive after a big punt return
- 51-yard TD drive
- Fumble return for a TD
That's 31 points on drives that totaled 123 yards. Talk about getting lucky!
More importantly, this is a favorable matchup for Baylor.
Regardless of who's under center between Nicco Marchiol (who has started the past two games) and Garrett Greene, West Virginia is a run-first offense. Everything flows from the ground game.
Well, that plays right into the strength of Baylor's defense, which ranks in the top 10 nationally in Rush Success Rate and has allowed only 3.8 yards per attempt in 2024.
The Baylor secondary can be attacked a bit, but its metrics are certainly impacted by a number of injuries earlier this season. The Bears should come into this one fully healthy on the back end and can hold their own against a fairly underwhelming Mountaineer passing attack that's also dealing with wide receiver injuries.
On the other side of the ball, Baylor's season-long rushing metrics aren't stellar, but it's been much better since making a change at left tackle and with the recent emergence of freshman back Bryson Washington. While the Bears have had more balance of late, WVU's stout run defense will certainly make things difficult in the trenches.
However, quarterback Sawyer Robertson and company can fully exploit a horrid West Virginia secondary that ranks 130th in coverage, per PFF, and 133rd in EPA per Pass allowed.
Baylor vs West Virginia
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Baylor and West Virginia match up statistically:
Baylor Offense vs. West Virginia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 61 | 25 | |
| Line Yards | 44 | 21 | |
| Pass Success | 40 | 130 | |
| Havoc | 14 | 104 | |
| Finishing Drives | 41 | 121 | |
| Quality Drives | 86 | 91 | |
West Virginia Offense vs. Baylor Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 86 | 6 | |
| Line Yards | 59 | 39 | |
| Pass Success | 78 | 96 | |
| Havoc | 85 | 93 | |
| Finishing Drives | 14 | 101 | |
| Quality Drives | 19 | 90 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 77 | 20 |
| PFF Coverage | 124 | 130 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 40 | 15 |
| Middle 8 | 95 | 38 |
| Seconds per Play | 23.6 (9) | 28.5 (100) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (54) | 61% (26) |
Baylor vs West Virginia Pick & Prediction
There's no reason why Baylor shouldn't move the ball efficiently through the air all afternoon.
From a pure net yards per play perspective sans garbage time, Baylor ranks 46th at +0.55, while West Virginia is at 77th (-0.25) with a relatively similar strength of schedule.
I don't show a ton of value in the Bears from a power ratings perspective. Still, I like anything under a field goal based on the spot and matchup against a Mountaineers team that would be 0-4 straight up in Morgantown against FBS teams this season if not for a miraculous comeback victory over Kansas.
For what it's worth, West Virginia head coach Neal Brown is just 6-12 ATS (33.3%) as a home underdog, including 0-3 ATS this year.
Pick: Baylor -1.5 (-110, bet365)
Baylor vs West Virginia Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, WV |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Baylor vs West Virginia will be played at Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown, West Virginia, on Saturday, Nov. 16 at 4 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN2.
