2018 Texas Bowl Betting Odds: Baylor-Vanderbilt
- Odds: Vanderbilt -4
- Over/Under: 55.5
- Date: Thursday, Dec. 27
- Location: Houston, Texas
- Time: 9 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
>> All odds as of Wednesday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time bowl odds and win probabilities on your bets.
Baylor and Vanderbilt both became bowl eligible in the final week of the season and are looking for their first postseason victories under their respective coaches.
Both teams have above average quarterbacks and defensive flaws. But which should you back on Wednesday night?
Odds Movement for Texas Bowl
By Danny Donahue
After opening at -6, Vanderbilt is down to just a 4-point favorite across the market. That’s not due to a public backing of the dog, either. Baylor has attracted only 30% of bettors, but has seemingly been on the sharper side as evidenced by the 45% of money it has received (see live betting data here).
This game also features the most popular over of bowl season, drawing 93% of bets. Despite that, the total still sits around its opening number of 55 at a number of sportsbooks.
Trends to Know for Baylor-Vanderbilt
By John Ewing
Vandy and Baylor finished the season with identical 6-6 records. When two teams with .500 or worse records meet in a bowl game the favorite has gone 13-7 ATS since 2005.
By Evan Abrams
Since 2005, the SEC is the most profitable conference against the spread in bowl games at 74-53-1 ATS (58.3%). In that span, the SEC’s most profitable opponent is the Big 12, going 19-8 ATS (70.4%). The SEC and Big 12 face off four times this bowl season:
- Baylor/Vanderbilt
- Oklahoma/Alabama
- Oklahoma State/Missouri
- Texas/Georgia
Who's More Motivated?
By Stuckey
We should get two extremely motivated teams, as both teams got here in similar fashion.
Baylor pulled off an upset in its regular season finale over Texas Tech in order to get to six wins. Vanderbilt did the same thing against Tennessee.
Neither team played in a bowl last season. And while Vanderbilt should be fired up to get its first winning season and bowl victory under Derek Mason, the same can be said for Baylor, which is looking to win a bowl just one season after going 1-11, which would be a remarkable achievement.
Vandy's Offense Is Better Than You Think
By Steve Petrella
Vanderbilt's offense ranks 45th in S&P+ and 46th in yards per play. The Commodores are balanced, ranking top 50th in both passing and rushing offense.
Against good defenses, Vandy really struggled.
- at Notre Dame: 17 points
- South Carolina: 14
- at Georgia: 13
- at Kentucky: 7
But against everyone else, the 'Dores were much better. They scored at least 27 points in every game and averaged at least 6.0 yards per play in all but one. I expect Vandy to move the ball and score against a Baylor defense that ranks 90th in S&P+, though it did improve late in the season.
Two Bad Third-Down Defenses
By Stuckey
Vanderbilt's defense ranks 118th in third down conversions (46.1%). Baylor is 104th at 43.3%. However, But Baylor is more likely to take advantage.
The Bears offense is actually tied with Washington State and Clemson at 43.8%, which ranks in the top 30th nationally. Meanwhile, Vandy’s offense has struggled converting third downs all season, ranking 107th (35.3%). In a game that should be close, Baylor should keep the sticks moving with much greater efficiency.
Bad in the Red Zone
By Stuckey
Baylor had one of the worst red zone defenses in the entire country, as teams scored at over a 90% clip inside the 20. However, I’m not sure Vandy can exploit this clear weakness.
This game will feature two of the worst red zone offenses in the entire country. Baylor only scored on 75.5% of its red zone trips, while Vanderbilt was even worse at 74.5%. Both those rank in the bottom 10 in college football.
Bet to Watch
By Collin Wilson
Both 6-6 teams are happy to be in a bowl after missing out last season. As for the close of 2018, these two teams come in on different trajectories. Baylor lost four of their last six games and will have star wide receiver Jalen Hurd out with a knee injury.
Like Hurd, Vanderbilt's quarterback, Kyle Shurmur, will be playing on Sundays in 2019 but he will be playing in this one and led the Commodores to three wins in their last four games to make it to a bowl.
Vanderbilt played a strength of schedule ranked 12th by S&P+ due to tough conference opponents, similar to Baylor’s reasoning for having a schedule rank of 48th.
The Commodores have impressive advanced stats, including explosiveness ranks of 19th in rushing and fourth in passing downs. The Bears defense ranks outside the top 100 in both of those categories, which should make for a big night from Shurmur in his showcase game for NFL scouts.
There is a big difference in net turnovers between the two teams, as well. The Bears have a -9 differential to the Commodores +8, as Baylor has had a number of games this season with a flurry of turnovers.
It doesn't matter that the crowd will be dominated by Baylor fans, I am backing Vanderbilt as the more explosive team with a better defense that isn't missing its best weapon.
Collin's Pick: Vanderbilt -4
By Stuckey
I actually completely disagree with Collin here. I think Baylor will be able to efficiently move the ball on the ground against a weak Vanderbilt run defense that allows 4.8 yards per rush (95th in the country). And when Charlie Brewer needs to throw, he will have time to make plays through the air (or with his legs).
Pass protection has been a major issue for Baylor all season, as the Bears rank 98th in Adjusted Sack Rate on Passing Downs. However, Vanderbilt gets almost no pressure on opposing quarterbacks, ranking 114th in that same category.
I just trust in Rhule here and the matchup advantages in a quasi-home game for the Bears.
Stuckey's Pick: Baylor +4
