The Texas Longhorns’ time in the Big 12 is ending as they play their last conference game in the Big 12 Championship game on Saturday, Dec. 2, against Oklahoma State.
Texas will need to win this game and win big to jump their way into the College Football Playoff field.
The Horns used that same strategy last week, hammering Texas Tech, 57-7.
When appropriately used, same-game parlays can provide a way to combine correlated outcomes into a single bet. When creating one of these parlays, you want to tell a story about the game script might unfold.
I'm building my parlay based on Texas' potential playoff scenario, considering the game script alongside the Longhorns' strengths and weaknesses on defense.
Texas vs. Oklahoma State Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -112 | 54.5 -118o / -104u | -750 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -108 | 54.5 -118o / -104u | +520 |
Texas -14.5
For the first leg of my parlay, I'm banking on Texas covering the two-touchdown spread.
Texas has been excellent in the trenches this year, particularly on defense, ranking seventh nationally in Rush Success Rate allowed and ninth in Rush PPA allowed. The 'Horns are also 30th in Havoc created, 12th in Pro Football Focus's Pass-Rush grades and 19th in their Rush Defense grades.
Meanwhile, Texas's offense is ranked eighth nationally in ESPN's SP+ ratings, and the unit is 36th in Success Rate.
With quarterback Quinn Ewers back from injury, the Texas passing game will be back at full strength as they take on an Oklahoma State secondary that ranks 83rd in PFF's Coverage grades.
Texas’s primary weakness is its ability to stop explosive passing plays, ranking 81st in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
However, Oklahoma State can't exploit that, ranking 118th in Pass Explosiveness.
I think Texas can impose its will on the Cowboys, and I expect the Horns will try to run up the score to impress the College Football Playoff Committee.
Ollie Gordon II Under 97.5 Rush Yards
Ollie Gordon II is among the nation's best running backs. He's been unbelievable in the lead-back role.
However, he might not see much action if Texas jumps out to a big lead, as I expect the 'Horns do.
For an example, check out the Pokes' game against UCF. The Knights went up 24-0 in the first half, and Oklahoma State was forced to throw the ball from behind. So, Gordon received only 12 carries for 25 yards.
As mentioned, Texas has been great against the run, ranking in the top 10 nationally by almost every rush defense metric. Meanwhile, Oklahoma State ranks 89th in PFF's Rush Blocking grades.
The 'Horns should neutralize the Pokes at the point of attack, which doesn't bode well for Gordon.
Texas will clog up the running lanes, and the game script isn't favorable for Gordon.
Alan Bowman Over 275 Pass Yards
Instead of leaning on Gordon's legs while protecting a lead, I expect the Pokes will depend on Alan Bowman's arms while playing from behind.
Oklahoma State already passes at the 22nd-highest rate in the nation, and Gundy will likely throw more once the Pokes drop into an early hole.
Ironically, this might be good for the Cowboys, as Texas' secondary is vulnerable against big passing plays. The 'Horns rank 85th in total pass defense (240.1 pass yards allowed per game).
And because it's leading so often, opponents are forced to throw the ball against Texas, as the Longhorns have had the 12th-most passing attempts per game against them this year (35.5).
The 'Horns are relatively weak in coverage, ranking 65th in PFF's Coverage grades. While they started strong, opposing quarterbacks have hit 275 yards in five of their past seven games.
As mentioned, the Pokes love to throw the ball, especially since Bowman became QB1. In nine full games he's played this year, he's cashed over 275 yards six times while attempting at least 34 passes in each contest.
I expect more of the same in the Big 12 Championship game, and I'm wagering accordingly.
Texas vs. Oklahoma State Same Game Parlay
- Texas -14.5
- Ollie Gordon II Under 97.5 Rush Yards
- Alan Bowman Over 275 Pass Yards
Parlay Odds: +840 at FanDuel Sportsbook
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