The Boise State Broncos are one of the best teams in the Group of Five and start the season with a tough test as they travel to take on the Georgia Southern Eagles.
Kickoff is set for 4:00 pm ET this Saturday on ESPNU.
It’s expected to be 93 degrees in Statesboro, Georgia, for this matchup, which may favor Georgia Southern.
However, the Eagles are still at a disadvantage as 13-point underdogs.
Let’s look at my Boise State vs Georgia Southern prediction, pick and preview for Saturday, August 31.
Boise State vs Georgia Southern Prediction
- Boise State vs. Georgia Southern Prediction, Preview, Pick: Georgia Southern Team Total Under 20.5
My Boise State vs Georgia Southern preview, prediction and best bet is the Eagles' team total under with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Boise State vs Georgia Southern Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 56.5 -112o / -108u | -535 |
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 56.5 -112o / -108u | +400 |
- Boise State vs Georgia Southern Point Spread: Boise State -13 (-110) · Georgia Southern +13 (-110)
- Boise State vs Georgia Southern Total: Over/Under 56.5
- Boise State vs Georgia Southern Moneyline: Boise State -535 · Georgia Southern +400
Boise State vs Georgia Southern Preview
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview: Is Madsen the Better Quarterback?
Boise State is the favorite to win the Mountain West Conference this season and among the top contenders to make the 12-team playoff as the Group of 5 representative.
There's plenty of hype around the Broncos, but this first road test won’t be easy.
The headliner of Boise State’s offense is junior running back Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty ran for 1,347 yards last season (6.1 per carry) and 14 touchdowns. He also added another 569 yards and five touchdowns receiving — he's the focal point of this offense.
Maddux Madsen will be under center for the Broncos. The sophomore saw some action last season, throwing for 1,191 yards, nine touchdowns and three picks over 132 attempts. Madsen beat out USC transfer Malachi Nelson for the starting role in what many consider to be an upset.
It could be that Madsen is the better quarterback than Nelson, but this seems like the lower-ceiling option.
This offense returns six starters from last year's squad, including three on the offensive line. That year, they ranked 23rd nationally in Success Rate and 38th in Finishing Drives. Boise State ran the ball 58% of the time — 18th nationally — ranking 11th in Rush Success Rate and 15th in Rush PPA.
Boise State fired head coach Andy Avalos towards the end of last season and replaced him with their defensive coordinator, Spencer Danielson. Dirk Koetter is again back in town as the Broncos’ offensive coordinator.
On the defensive side of the ball, Boise State returns all 11 starters from last year's team, including 13 of its top 15 tacklers. The unit ranked 50th in Success Rate allowed last season but 92nd in Finishing Drives allowed and 115th in Explosiveness allowed.
The Broncos were much better against the pass, ranking 37th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed, compared to 73rd in Rush Success Rate allowed.
Georgia Southern Eagles Betting Preview: Lots To Replace
Clay Helton returns to Georgia Southern for his third year in Statesboro.
This team's strength will be its defense, as eight starters return from last year's stop unit that ranked fifth nationally in Havoc.
Still, the Eagles also ranked 99th in Success Rate allowed, including 113th in Pass Success Rate allowed and 80th in Rush Success Rate allowed.
While there is hope they've improved, I’m not expecting a massive jump.
Offensively, the Eagles ranked 32nd in Success Rate last season but just 88th in Finishing Drives and 102nd in Explosiveness. They were methodical, even though they mostly passed the ball (fourth nationally in pass rate). They ranked 32nd in Pass Success Rate but 133rd in Explosiveness.
When they did run the ball, they were solid, ranking 27th in Rush Success Rate.
Five starters from that offense return, including the top five leading rushers. The Eagles have to replace three starting offensive lineman and their leading receiver from last year, and former quarterback Davis Brin is gone. JC French will start under center, who recorded only 16 pass attempts last season.
Boise State vs Georgia Southern Pick & Prediction
I’m uncertain how Madsen and the new-look Boise State offense will play against Georgia Southern’s respectable defense. Jeanty is always electric, but I’m ultimately uncomfortable betting the spread.
Instead, I like looking towards the under on Georgia Southern’s team total.
The Broncos bring back everyone on defense and should be among the Group of Five's top units. Georgia Southern has much to replace on offense, and I don’t think Boise State is the team you want to face in that scenario.
My best bet for this game is taking Georgia Southern under 20.5 total points at -110, as I believe this Boise State defense will be able to slow the Eagles down, make them work, and ultimately stop them.
Pick: Georgia Southern Team Total Under 20.5 Points (-110, DraftKings) | Play to 20.5 (-120)
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How to Watch Boise State vs Georgia Southern Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Allen E. Paulson Stadium, Statesboro, Georgia |
| Date: | Saturday, Aug. 31 |
| Kickoff Time: | 4 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
Boise State vs Georgia Southern Betting Trends
- The public is backing the home pup, with over 60% of the tickets and money on Georgia Southern.
- Boise State went 5-0-1 against the spread at home last season but just 2-4-1 ATS on the road.
- Georgia Southern is 8-4 ATS at home since the start of 2022 but went 0-4 ATS as an underdog last year.
