Ashton Jeanty and the Boise State Broncos (4-1, 1-0 MWC) travel out to the big island to take on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (2-3, 0-1) to close out Saturday's college football slate. Kickoff is set for 11 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network, and the game can be streamed on YouTube TV.
The story of college football over the past 2 weeks has been Jeanty, the Boise State back. He's now the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy with numbers that rival Barry Sanders' historic season at Oklahoma State.
The Broncos' only loss came by a field goal on the road at Oregon, 37-34, so if they can win out, they'll likely be in the College Football Playoff.
Hawaii narrowly lost to San Diego State, 27-24, last weekend to drop to 2-3 on the season. Its lone two wins have come against FCS opponents, so Timmy Chang's team is still looking for its first win over an FBS opponent.
The Rainbow Warriors also haven't beaten Boise State since 2007, so they'll be looking to end a couple of streaks on Saturday night.
Boise State enters as a -20.5 favorite with an over/under of 59.5. Check out my Boise State vs. Hawaii predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Oct. 12 below.
Boise State vs Hawaii Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -112 | 60 -110 / -110 | -1650 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 -108 | 60 -110 / -110 | +950 |
- Boise State vs Hawaii Spread: Boise State -21 (-112)
- Boise State vs Hawaii Over/Under: 60 Total Points
- Boise State vs Hawaii Moneyline: Boise State ML -1650 · Hawaii ML +950
Boise State Broncos vs Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Pick
My Hawaii vs Boise State best bet is on the Rainbow Warriors to cover the spread. Find the best odds on our live NCAAF odds page.
- Boise State vs Hawaii Prediction: Hawaii +21
Prediction
My top bet for Boise State vs. Hawaii is on the spread of Hawaii +21.
Spread
I do see value on Saturday's three-touchdown spread, and I think the underdog will cover.
Over/Under
With the total at a relatively high 60.5, I'm not betting this over/under.
Moneyline
While I am betting Hawaii on the spread, I don't see value on either side to win this game outright.
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview
Well, the question on everyone's mind is how on earth does one stop Jeanty?
He didn't play in the second half against Utah State because he had already complied 186 yards and three touchdowns on 13 carries.
Heading into Week 7, Jeanty has a 99.8 PFF rushing grade, which is the highest grade PFF has ever given out. He's averaging 10.9 yards per carry and has been nearly impossible to bring down on first contact, averaging 7.9 yards per carry after contact.
Ashton Jeanty AFTER CONTACT Ranks 4th in Rush Yards🤯 pic.twitter.com/UsKSz0xedx
— PFF College (@PFF_College) October 9, 2024
Of his 95 attempts, he has forced 49 missed tackles and has 20 runs of 10 yards ore more.
Hawaii is a pretty average run defense, but it's better than some of the defenses Jeanty has seen.
Because Boise State has led in most of its games and Jeanty has been so effective, quarterback Maddux Madsen hasn't been asked to throw a lot.
Jeanty missed the second half against Oregon, and Madsen had to throw the ball 40 times in that game and was terrible. He averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt and put up a PFF passing grade of 54.8.
Hawaii has a really good secondary, so if Madsen is forced to throw at all in this game, it's going to play right into Hawaii's hands.
However, the Boise State defense has been pretty bad. The Broncos brought back all 11 starters from last season but haven't shown any improvement.
The struggles have come in the secondary, where Boise State ranks 106th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 92nd in explosive passing plays allowed. That's bad news against a Hawaii team that throws the ball at the highest rate in the country.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Betting Preview
Despite being 2-3, Hawaii is a lot better than its record shows.
Sure, its schedule has been pretty easy, but the biggest improvements have been on the defensive side of the ball. The Rainbow Warriors rank 12th in the nation in Success Rate Allowed and are allowing only 5.5 yards per play to FBS opponents, which ranks inside the top 60.
Are they going to slow down Jeanty? Probably not.
However, they've been great at forcing turnovers and missed tackles. The Bows rank 14th nationally in Havoc, so maybe — just maybe — they can force Madsen into an interception or get Boise State into some third-and-long situations.
The Hawaii offense does have a great matchup in this game with how bad the Boise State secondary has been.
Quarterback Brayden Schager has been pretty average this season, recording 6.5 yards per attempt with a 72.3 PFF passing grade. However, his receivers haven't helped him out at all because they have dropped 18 passes — the most by any receiving corps in college football.
Even with all of those drops, Hawaii ranks 51st in Passing Success Rate because Schager has been good in the short-to-intermediate passing game, posting a PFF passing grade of 78.2 on throws between 1-20 yards.
The biggest improvement Hawaii has made from last season is Finishing Drives. It's averaging 4.3 yards per scoring opportunity and ranks 40th in Finishing Drives, which is huge because Boise State sits 82nd in Finishing Drives Allowed.
Hawaii vs Boise State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Hawaii and Boise State match up statistically:
Boise State Offense vs. Hawaii Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 14 | 42 | |
| Line Yards | 29 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 35 | 51 | |
| Havoc | 12 | 14 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 2 | 85 | |
| Quality Drives | 28 | 53 | |
Hawaii Offense vs. Boise State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 51 | 58 | |
| Line Yards | 32 | 47 | |
| Pass Success | 52 | 106 | |
| Havoc | 75 | 36 | |
| Finishing Drives | 40 | 82 | |
| Quality Drives | 109 | 70 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 103 | 50 |
| PFF Coverage | 24 | 8 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 76 | 102 |
| Middle 8 | 28 | 108 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.7 (56) | 26.8 (57) |
| Rush Rate | 55% (47) | 38% (134) |
My Boise State vs Hawaii Best Bet
This is a really big spread for Boise State to cover, and I'm not sure it can do it.
Of course, Jeanty is going to put up big numbers, but the rest of this matchup actually favors the Rainbow Warriors.
If Hawaii can somehow slow down Jeanty and put Boise State in third-and-long situations, Madsen is very limited as a downfield passer.
Hawaii owns the eighth-best coverage grade in college football, so Boise State is likely going to have to solely rely on Jeanty, which limits its ability to cover this large spread.
Boise showed last week against Utah State that it can't stop decent passing attacks. The Broncos allowed the Aggies to throw for 371 yards and 9.1 yards per attempt with most of it coming in garbage time.
The Boise State secondary is allowing 8.5 yards per attempt, so facing this isn't a good matchup considering it'll be facing a Hawaii passing attack that throws the ball at the highest rate in the country.
I only have Boise State projected as a -17.8 favorite, so I like the value on Hawaii at a key number of +21.
Plus, Chang's teams have performed well as double-digit underdogs in his three seasons as Hawaii's coach.
Pick: Hawaii +21 via BetRivers
Boise State vs Hawaii Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, HI |
| Date: | Saturday, October 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 11 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
Hawaii vs Boise State Betting Trends
- Hawaii has landed 65% of the tickets but generated 78% of the money.
- The over has taken 78% of bets and produced 81% of the cash.
Boise State vs Hawaii Weather
