The Boise State Broncos and Oregon Ducks — two teams with College Football Playoff hopes — will meet Saturday after a pair of unsatisfactory victories in Week 1.
The Ducks struggled to create separation from Idaho last week, allowing a few busted plays to result in touchdowns for the Vandals. Despite a small 10-point victory, Oregon outgained Idaho by 270 yards and gained two or more first downs on half of its offensive possessions. Oregon's struggle to secure a decisive victory against FCS Idaho was unexpected, given their favored status.
Red-zone issues resulted in a poor Finishing Drives number — something to keep tabs on through Week 2.
Boise State went cross-country to Statesboro, Georgia, to survive Georgia Southern's offensive assault in the southern humidity.
The Broncos may have the best running back in college football, but the defense allowed the Eagles to create multiple methodical drives. Georgia Southern cashed in on possessions that crossed Boise's 40-yard line, averaging a whopping 5.6 points per trip.
Boisr State is the last nonconference team to win in Autzen Stadium since 2008. For the Broncos to pull an upset in Eugene this time around, a better defensive performance is needed from a secondary that allowed too many explosives against a Sun Belt offense.
Let's take a look at my Boise State vs Oregon prediction.
NCAAF Week 2: Boise State vs Oregon Pick, Prediction
- Boise State vs Oregon Picks: Oregon Team Total Over 40.5
My Boise State vs Oregon best bet is on the Ducks team total, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Boise State vs Oregon Odds, Spread for NCAAF Week 2
| Boise State Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+18.5 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | +650 |
| Oregon Ducks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-18.5 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
- Spread: Boise State +18.5 · Oregon -18.5
- Total: Over/Under 61 Points
- Moneyline: Boise State ML +650 · Oregon ML -1000
Boise State Football vs Oregon Football Preview
Boise State Broncos Preview: All Aboard the Jeanty Train
A tough road game at Georgia Southern provided a mixed bag when it comes to handicapping Boise State.
The good comes in running back Ashton Jeanty, who ran for 267 yards and six touchdowns while posting 8.2 yards after contact.
Offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter made a triumphant return to the program, orchestrating an overall Success Rate of 59% while gobbling up 62% of available yards on 14 possessions.
While Maddux Madsen was competent at quarterback, the Broncos' combination of outside zone read and Jeanty will be the gravy train of this offense.
If there's 1 position Boise St. consistently produces, it's Running back!
Ashton Jeanty is RB1 in the 2025 Draft Class 🔵🟠🔵🟠 pic.twitter.com/voByPNzcD6— KB (@KidBlueRB27) September 1, 2024
Boise State ran 51 plays in standard downs to just 15 in passing downs, creating a low average of third-down distance at 4.2 yards.
Madsen completed 22 of his 31 passing attempts, recording a big-time throw and a pair of turnover-worthy plays.
There are playmakers on the outside with receivers Latrell Caples and Cam Camper, who each put up over 3.5 yards per route run in 14 total targets.
While the offense played well, the Boise State defense struggled to get Georgia Southern off the field.
Head coach Spencer Danielson was promoted from defensive coordinator to interim coach before taking the job outright at the Mountain West Championship last season.
The open position at DC was filled by Erik Chinander, a longtime assistant to Scott Frost at UCF and Nebraska. Chinander runs a three-man front with more dime formations to prevent explosives.
While the 37% blitz rate contributed to 21 pressures, the secondary proved to be the culprit behind the Eagles' 24 first downs. Fifteen of those came from passing attempts.
Boise State pulled a top-15 tackle grade and ranks 66th in coverage, per PFF, putting the target for the Oregon offense squarely on the back end of the Broncos defense.
Oregon Ducks Preview: Opening It Up in Week 2?
Against Idaho, Oregon head coach Dan Lanning implemented the most vanilla game plan offensively while sitting in a base 3-3-5 defensively with a low blitz rate to put nothing on tape for future opponents.
Heisman hopeful quarterback Dillon Gabriel ended the day going 41-of-49 through the air, generating one of the lowest average depth of targets at 4.3 yards.
The Ducks' first drive of the game against the Vandals consisted of 11 plays, more than five minutes of clock and a touchdown. The game plan was clear: create methodical drives and keep a two-possession lead.
Tez johnson is him! The amount of separation he gets on routes is unreal! pic.twitter.com/CoCUXmxrkY
— Jonathan Stewart (@Jonathanstewar1) August 31, 2024
While the game plan was to keep the playbook limited, the offensive line struggled to move Idaho defenders. Tackle Ajani Cornelius gave up two sacks, as the entire offensive line allowed 10 pressures.
The defensive line produced better results, stuffing nearly half of the Vandals' rushing attempts. Idaho failed to create a methodical drive, leaning into explosives through the pass game to get into scoring position.
Idaho gained only 27% of available yards, well below the national average of 44%. If there's an area the Ducks can feel confident in going against Boise State, Oregon did not record a single missed tackle in Week 1.
<span >How to Bet My Boise State vs Oregon Prediction</span>
Bosie State and Oregon had lackluster performances opening the season against inferior competition.
The handicap comes in defining which aspects will linger and which were due to the head coaches removing 90% of the playbook in anticipation of Week 2.
Gabriel is sure to surpass an average depth of target of under five yards, and the Ducks' tackling will carry over as well.
Jeanty tallied 163 yards after first contact, a number that could be reduced if Oregon continues to tackle in one-on-one situations.
On the other side, the Broncos defense gave up 15 first downs to Georgia Southern through the air — a significant point for Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein. Chinander, Boise State's DC, is sure to continue a three-man front with heavy blitz as well.
Gabriel has not been a stranger to blitzes throughout his career, logging a higher rate of big-time throws versus turnover-worthy plays in a crowded pocket over the past two seasons at Oklahoma.
Action Network's projection lands at Oregon by three touchdowns — in line with the current market offering.
Regardless of the final score against Idaho, the Ducks still gained more than the national average in available yards, Methodical Drive Rate and standard downs Success Rate.
Considering Boise State couldn't get Georgia Southern off the field, there's no expectation Oregon will have resistance putting points on the board.
My Week 2 Pick: Oregon Team Total Over 40.5
<span >How to Watch Boise State vs Oregon</span>
| Location: | Autzen Stadium, Eugene, OR |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Peacock |
Oregon Ducks vs Boise State Broncos Betting Trends
- Oregon has received 45% of the bets but 58% of the money.
- The under has taken 41% of the tickets but has generated 61% of the money.
NCAAF Week 2 Weather: Oregon-Boise State
