The No. 3 Boise State Broncos (12-1, 7-0 Mountain West) meet the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions (12-2, 8-1 Big Ten) in the Fiesta Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals on Tuesday, Dec. 31.
Boise State has suffered only 1 loss on the season — a 37-34 defeat at the hands of Oregon on Sept. 7. After that, the Broncos cruised through their schedule to a Mountain West Conference title.
Penn State, meanwhile, is coming off a 38-10 thrashing of No. 11 SMU in the 1st round of the College Football Playoff.
The Nittany Lions enter as -11 favorites with the over/under set at 53.5.
With that said, let's dive into our Boise State vs. Penn State picks and college football predictions for the Fiesta Bowl and College Football Playoff quarterfinals on Tuesday, Dec. 31.
Boise State vs. Penn State Odds, Betting Lines
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -110 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | +380 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -110 | 54.5 -115o / -105u | -550 |
- Boise State vs. Penn State Spread: Boise State +12 · Penn State -12
- Boise State vs. Penn State Over/Under: 54.5
- Boise State vs. Penn State Moneyline: Boise State +360 · Penn State -480
By Pete Ruden
For the first time in the 12-team College Football Playoff era, a Group of Five team will take the field.
Not only did Boise State secure the G5 bid to the playoff, but the Broncos did enough to earn a first-round bye and secure a spot into the quarterfinals.
Of course, they did that on the back of Heisman finalist running back Ashton Jeanty.
Jeanty had a season for the ages, chasing Barry Sanders' historic rushing records. While he didn't pass Sanders, he still put up 2,497 yards with 29 touchdowns on 7.3 yards per carry.
However, he has quite the challenge ahead of him.
Penn State looked dominant in its dismantling of SMU in the first round and even put up a fight against top-ranked Oregon in the Big Ten Championship.
The Nittany Lions have relied on their 1-2 punch at running back in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, along with good decisions from quarterback Drew Allar in Andy Kotelnicki's offense.
Penn State has proven it can contend on the big stage, suffering one-possession losses to Ohio State and Oregon earlier in the season. Now, it's all about getting over the hump.
We polled eight members of our college football staff to get their leans for Tuesday night's spread and over/under. Let's get into their picks below.
Boise State vs. Penn State Best Bets, Predictions, Picks
Fiesta Bowl Spread
Spread Pick: Penn State -11
By Pete Ruden
Most of our staff sees Penn State taking this in a blowout.
The Nittany Lions’ biggest advantage in this game comes on the offensive side of the ball. Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki’s unit has put up 38 points or more in three straight games and four of the last five.
With a 58% rush rate, Penn State will lean on one of the nation's best backfield combinations in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen.
In the first round against SMU, the duo combined for 160 yards and three touchdowns on 6.4 yards per carry.
Penn State ranks 10th nationally in Rushing Success Rate, and while Boise sits 31st in that area defensively, that came against the 78th-best strength of schedule.
If the last two games were any indication — 293 rushing yards against top-ranked Oregon in the Big Ten Championship and 189 in a blowout over SMU — the Nittany Lions should have their way.
The discrepancy is even bigger when it comes to the passing game. Penn State sits third nationally in Passing Success Rate, while Boise State ranks 58th.
Quarterback Drew Allar has also done a phenomenal job of keeping mistakes to a minimum. The Medina, Ohio, native has a 21:7 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the season and has tossed only two in the last six games, which includes a four-game turnover-free streak.
Now, Ashton Jeanty is a beast that few teams have had to deal with this season, including Penn State. The Nittany Lions won’t stop him; they’ll have to find a way to contain him.
Luckily for PSU, Boise State’s offensive line might make that task a bit easier. The Broncos rank just 39th in Offensive Line Yards against their schedule, while the Nittany Lions’ defensive line comes in at fourth against a physical Big Ten schedule.
While containing Jeanty will certainly be a new challenge, expect Penn State’s offense to match — and exceed — Boise’s output.
Fiesta Bowl Over/Under
Over 53.5 | 5 Picks |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 53.5 | 3 Picks |
Total Pick: Over 53.5
By John Feltman
Our Action Network staff believes the total should go over, and I agree. The Penn State offense has been clicking over the last month, and I see plenty of ways that they could continue its success.
Penn State sits in the top 10 in Rushing Success Rate, Finishing Drives and Quality Drives, including third in Passing Success Rate.
Quarterback Drew Allar has quickly increased his draft stock as of late, and there's a big reason why.
Allar has shredded opposing defenses, and he’s done an outstanding job, especially when facing pressure in the pocket. It’s easy for quarterbacks to make throws when they’re not under duress, but when they can prove they can sit in the pocket and take hits but still deliver throws down the field, it speaks volumes about their overall talent.
The Boise State defense was pretty stout against the run throughout the regular season, but it hasn't faced a team like Penn State. It faced Oregon earlier in the year, and we also saw how its defense fared as it gave up 37 points.
The Boise State secondary is up for a tall task against Allar, and I think he'll have plenty of chances to capitalize. Allar has nearly been flawless throughout the regular season, so Penn State will put up its fair share of points.
Also, the Broncos are prone to allowing a ton of broken tackles, which should correlate to even more explosive plays down the field.
Offensively, the Broncos have a tall task against a stellar Penn State defense, but Jeanty is the best back the Nittany Lions will have faced all season. As stout as the Nittany Lions are against the run, Jeanty should have open lanes thanks to the offensive line getting healthier.
Quarterback Maddux Madsen is always waiting for a mistake, but he can make big-time throws. Madsen’s promise to make mistakes can be a blessing in disguise. If he commits many errors, it will correlate to short fields for the Penn State offense.
Even if the game gets out of hand, I would expect Penn State to pull its defensive starters late, allowing the Broncos to score some cheap points and help us get over the total.
