The 2024 campaign has been a tremendous success for San Jose State under first-year head coach Ken Niumatalolo.
The Spartans' preseason win total was 4.5, as speculation ran rampant about the former Navy head coach's preferred style of offense.
Relying on the experience of his offensive coordinator, Niumatalolo chose the hybrid run-and-shoot offense that already has San Jose State at six wins with an outside chance of making the Mountain West championship game.
The road to the conference championship runs through the Boise State program, currently undefeated in conference play and looking in at the College Football Playoff with an 8-1 record on the season. The Broncos' lone loss for the season came by a field goal at Autzen Stadium against Oregon in Week 2.
Led by a Heisman-contending running back, Boise State will complete its Mountain West run on the road with back-to-back travel at Spartan Stadium and Wyoming next week.
Boise State opened as a 14-point favorite over San Jose State, a number that has remained just below two touchdowns in weekly wagering, with a 61.5-point over/under.
Read on for our Boise State vs San Jose State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 16.
Boise State vs San Jose State Prediction
My Boise State vs San Jose State best bet is on the Spartans to cover the 13.5-point spread available at bet365 sportsbook.
Boise State vs San Jose State Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 / -110 | -550 |
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 / -110 | +400 |
- Boise State vs San Jose State Point Spread: Boise State -13.5 (-110) · San Jose State +13.5 (-110)
- Boise State vs San Jose State Total: Over/Under 61.5
- Boise State vs San Jose State Moneyline: Boise State -550 · San Jose State +400
Boise State vs San Jose State Preview
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview: Holes To Fill
Quarterback Maddux Madsen is coming off one of the worst games in his career, committing two turnover-worthy plays and throwing for only 119 yards on 25 dropbacks.
Madsen has seen an increase in recent weeks with his release time, averaging 3.1 seconds to throw against Nevada and San Diego State.
The great news for offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter is the Broncos' heavy preference to run the ball behind the nation's best running back, Ashton Jeanty.
Jeanty sits at 1,733 yards on the season, a number that is within 1,000 yards of Barry Sanders' all-time single-season record at 2,628 yards.
The outside zone read concept has led the Broncos' rushing attack, ranking in the top 20 nationally in Success Rate.
Where Boise State has handled opponents is possessions that cross the opponent's 40-yard line, ranking as the best offense of all FBS teams in finishing drives. In 58 drives into the extended red zone, the Broncos average 5.2 points per trip.
Defensive coordinator Erik Chinander has plenty of holes to fill on the defensive side of the ball.
The 3-2-6 personnel generates defensive havoc at a top-10 clip nationally thanks to a 33% blitz rate, but issues tackling in space continue to plague Boise State. The Broncos rank 130th in Pro Football Focus's Tackling grades, falling to 196th of all FBS and FCS defenses in broken and missed tackles allowed.
Boise State may be without their top defensive player, as sixth-year senior team-captain safety Alex Teubner is dealing with a lower-body injury.
San Jose State Spartans Betting Preview: Run-and-Shoot
Niumatalolo selected Craig Stutzmann as the offensive coordinator. Stutzmann was a product of the Nick Rolovich offenses at Hawai’i and Washington State.
The run-and-shoot spread hybrid has successfully created explosive plays despite multiple quarterbacks under center this season. Both Emmett Brown and Walker Eget have over 150 dropbacks, with Eget starting the previous three games.
San Jose State passes on 64% of snaps, using many hitch-and-go routes against opposing coverage. Eget’s time to throw of 2.4 seconds has complemented an offense line in the bottom 10 nationally in Pro Football Focus's Pass Blocking grades.
No handicap on San Jose State is complete without the acknowledgment of receiver Nick Nash. The sixth-year senior leads the nation in receiving yards and touchdowns. With the bar set at two yards per route run to be an explosive wide receiver, Nash sits just over three yards per route run on 86 targets this season. More than 93% of Boise State passing attempts have seen Nash come out of the slot, putting a target on the safety position for Boise State.
The nickel defense has a do-break mantra. It struggles to stop opponents' rushing attacks but firms up in scoring position.
The front seven has stepped up in short-yardage situations, ranking 39th nationally in Stuff Rate. Still, they've struggled to stop teams in Standard Downs, and they're weak in the pass rush — although ranking top-35 nationally in Pass Efficiency allowed is a bright spot.
While the third-down defense is leaky, the Spartans rank in the top 30 nationally in defensive red zone efficiency this season
Boise State vs San Jose State
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boise State and San Jose State match up statistically:
Boise State Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 16 | 84 | |
| Line Yards | 40 | 31 | |
| Pass Success | 15 | 32 | |
| Havoc | 4 | 52 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 34 | |
| Quality Drives | 20 | 53 | |
San Jose State Offense vs. Boise State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 102 | 47 | |
| Line Yards | 132 | 40 | |
| Pass Success | 35 | 73 | |
| Havoc | 70 | 10 | |
| Finishing Drives | 77 | 73 |  |
| Quality Drives | 92 | 40 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 130 | 104 |
| PFF Coverage | 25 | 47 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 62 | 117 |
| Middle 8 | 24 | 23 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.6 (77) | 23.7 (11) |
| Rush Rate | 58% (31) | 37% (133) |
Boise State vs San Jose State Pick & Prediction
I expect plenty of points here, especially with San Jose State's high pace (23.7 seconds per pace).
The Spartans rank in the top 50 nationally in creating broken tackles, assisted by Nash's 23 missed tackles forced on 86 catches this year. Nash should create plenty of explosives against Boise's lackadaisical tackling unit, especially with Teubner sidelined.
San Jose State's aerial attack (top 40 in EPA per Dropback) should produce against Boise State's leaky defensive backfield (131st in Passing Downs Explosiveness allowed).
The total sits just below the small key number of 62, and our Action Network projections make the over/under 63.5.
The bigger question is if the Spartans' defense can provide any resistance against Jeanty and the Boise offense.
San Jose State's defense has produced a relatively weak 41% Success Rate against outside-zone read concepts, Boise State's heaviest-used rush concept. Jeanty will likely earn his yards here as he begins to really challenge Sanders' all-time record.
That said, the Spartans' defense should earn enough stops against Madsen and the passing attack, especially with their 59% Success Rate mark in quarters coverage.
The Action Network projects Boise State as a 12.5-point favorite, inside the current market number.
I will watch the refs closely this week after the Mountain West reprimanded Niumatalolo for criticizing the officials in the Oregon State game.
Ultimately, look for Nash to take advantage of a Boise State defense that will be missing their best player in the secondary, keeping the Spartans within the number.
Pick: San Jose State +13.5 or better
Boise State vs San Jose State Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How To Watch
| Location: | CEFCU Stadium, San Jose, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
Boise State vs San Jose State will be played at CEFCU Stadium in San Jose, California, on Saturday, Nov. 16 at 7 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on CBS Sports Network.
