The No. 17 Boise State Broncos (5-1) and UNLV Rebels (6-1) meet in Las Vegas on Friday night for one of the biggest Group of 5 matchups of the season.
The Broncos only have the 1 37-34 loss at Oregon as the lone blemish on their schedule, sporting a 5-1 record and 2-0 start in the Mountain West Conference.
Meanwhile, the Rebels also have the lone 44-41 overtime loss in nonconference action to Syracuse to go with six wins on the season.
This is a rematch of last year’s Mountain West Championship, and with the conference and playoff ramifications, we should get a great battle in Allegiant Stadium.
Let's dive in and find out my Boise State vs. UNLV predictions and college football picks for Friday, Oct. 25.
Boise State Broncos vs. UNLV Rebels Prediction and Picks
- Boise State vs. UNLV Pick: 1st Half Over 31.5 (Play to 33.5)
My UNLV vs. Boise State best bet is on the first half total, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Boise State vs. UNLV Odds, Betting Line, Spread
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -120 | 64 -115o / -105u | -205 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 +100 | 64 -115o / -105u | +170 |
- Boise State vs. UNLV Point Spread: Boise State -4
- Boise State vs. UNLV Over/Under: 64
- Boise State vs. UNLV Moneyline: Boise State -205, UNLV +170
Boise State vs. UNLV College Football Preview
Boise State Broncos Betting Preview
Coming into the year, Boise State was a popular pick to be the G5 representative in the new playoff format. The three-point loss against the Ducks doesn’t leave much more room for error, but I do expect the Broncos to be in the running by the end of the year.
It helps when you have arguably the best player in the country on your roster at running back with Ashton Jeanty. The Heisman frontrunner leads the nation in rushing yards (1,248), yards after contact (914), and rushing touchdowns (17).
The numbers speak for themselves, but it is also the explosiveness that makes him even more exciting to watch. He is the only player with four rushing scores of 70-plus yards, which means he has the potential to score on every touch.
Meanwhile, quarterback Maddux Madsen has also played well. He leads the MWC and ranks 29th nationally in pass efficiency rating at 152.8.
This duo should be looking to stay hot in this high-scoring affair.
UNLV Rebels Betting Preview
The turnaround that coach Barry Odom has led at UNLV in just two seasons has been remarkable. The 15 wins in 21 games under Odom are the most victories over any two-season span for the school since the 1984-85 campaigns.
The records don’t stop there for the Rebels. They have won their first four road games in a season for the first time ever and set a school record last week with their sixth straight road victory.
Now, Odom has his sights on another new mark of downing a ranked opponent. The last triumph over a Top 25 foe came against Arizona State back in 2008.
Yes, Hajj-Malik Williams has stolen the spotlight with his play since becoming the starter, but one interesting wrinkle for UNLV has been Ricky White III on special teams.
White leads the nation with his school-record three blocked kicks on punts this season, which could be important when trying to steal an extra possession here.
UNLV vs. Boise State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UNLV and Boise State match up statistically:
Boise State Offense vs. UNLV Defense
 | Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 17 | 34 | |
| Line Yards | 28 | 59 | |
| Pass Success | 21 | 54 | |
| Havoc | 7 | 21 | |
| Finishing Drives | 5 | 113 | |
| Quality Drives | 17 | 33 | |
UNLV Offense vs. Boise State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 48 | 54 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 36 | |
| Pass Success | 22 | 100 | |
| Havoc | 46 | 12 | |
| Finishing Drives | 23 | 55 | |
| Quality Drives | 15 | 52 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 122 | 62 |
| PFF Coverage | 42 | 16 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 77 | 2 |
| Middle 8 | 44 | 20 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.0 (61) | 27.5 (74) |
| Rush Rate | 56% (40) | 69% (4) |
How to Bet My Boise State vs. UNLV Pick
The big question here is how either team gets stops in this game, and I don’t have an answer. The total is a high one for the full game, so I’m targeting another bet in this spot.
With that said, my best bet is for the first half to fly over its total of 31.5 at DraftKings. I would bet that up to 33.5, and I also don’t hate the yes on the prop of both teams to score 30-plus points at +140 odds or better.
We’ve seen both teams get into early shootouts this season. For UNLV, this same bet would have cashed in three of four games with Williams under center, with those contests averaging 35 points in the first half.
Meanwhile, the same can be said for Boise. The Broncos’ games have averaged 37.7 points per opening half, with this play cashing in four of six matchups.
When you add it all up, both rank inside the Top 15 in the country in first-half points per game. There are also a couple of key advantages for both offenses.
For the visitors, UNLV ranks 113th in the FBS in Finishing Drives defensively. The Rebels are also in the Bottom 20 among P5 programs in Rush Explosiveness allowed, which is not good against Jeanty.
When UNLV has the ball, I expect Hajj-Malik Williams to have success against a Boise defense that is 100th in Pass Success Rate allowed. It also doesn’t help the Broncos that they are 122nd in PFF’s Tackling grades.
In the MWC Championship game last season, there were 48 points in the opening period before the scoring died after halftime. I’m backing that to happen again here in the rematch.
Pick: First-Half Over 31.5 (Play to 33.5)
Boise State vs. UNLV Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV |
| Date: | Friday, Oct. 25 |
| Kickoff Time: | 10:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | CBS Sports Network |
Boise State is set to take on UNLV in Las Vegas on Saturday at 10:30 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Boise State vs. UNLV Betting Trends
- 85% of bets and 95% of the money are on Boise State to cover the spread
- 71% of bets and 59% of the money on the moneyline are on Boise State to win outright
- 31% of bets and 80% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Boise State vs. UNLV Weather
