Boston College vs Notre Dame Odds
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20 -110 | 42.5 -105o / -115u | +985 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20 -110 | 42.5 -105o / -115u | -2146 |
Boston College looks for another upset this week as it travels to South Bend for the Holy War.
Marcus Freeman started out his tenure with Notre Dame by losing his first two games. The first was a respectable loss to Ohio State, but the loss to Marshall as 20-point favorites didn’t win him any fanfare.
But Notre Dame has now won seven of its last eight games. It avoided a letdown last week against Navy coming off huge victories over Syracuse and Clemson.
Now they will face off against a Boston College program that has been one of the biggest disappointments this season. The Eagles are 3-7 and despite having nothing to play for, have found themselves amidst a quarterback controversy late in the season.
We’ve seen Notre Dame fall to inferior opponents this season — can they avoid that and get the cover against Boston College in this historic rivalry?
Boston College Eagles
Boston College masked many of its issues this season in its upset victory over NC State as +800 underdogs. Recreating that effort against a Notre Dame team that is firing on all cylinders is another question.
Quarterback controversy has hit the Eagles program after Phil Jurkovec missed the last two weeks with a knee injury. In that time, Emmett Morehead has flourished, throwing for 330 yards against both Duke and NC State. In those two games, he has tallied seven touchdowns through the air.
Morehead gives Boston College the best chance to compete in this game. Though a small sample size, he’s looked great and has spread the ball around to all Boston College receivers.
But Jurkovec appears to be healthy, and head coach Jeff Hafley has preached he will be the starting quarterback if available. In Jurkovec’s eight starts this season he totaled 11 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He’s averaging 6.9 yards per attempt and 210 passing yards per game.
This is a second chance for Jurkovec to get revenge against his previous school. In 2020, Boston College was defeated 45-31 in a matchup Jurkovec threw for 270 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. But that was a much better Eagles program with a solid offensive line that could protect him.
That’s not the case this year.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
The Irish have found their groove, winning four contests in a row including victories over Syracuse and Clemson.
The offense has been efficient, averaging 30 points per game behind its dominant rushing attack which averages 4.3 yards per carry. The Irish own a rush rate of 61%.
Audric Estime has emerged as the lead back after recent dominant performances. Estime is averaging 5.7 yards per carry and has found the end zone nine times. The 5-foot-11 227-pound running back resembles Jerome Bettis with his brute-force running style.
Drew Pyne has remained a game manager who tossed 18 touchdowns to five interceptions. The Irish only throw the ball on 39% of their plays this season, and Pyne has averaged 7.6 yards per attempt. His main target is tight end Michael Mayer, who has 54 receptions for 647 yards and seven touchdowns.
The Notre Dame defense won’t have to worry about Boston College’s non-existent run game. Boston College is averaging a measly 2.1 yards per rush attempt this season. That will allow them to focus on either Jurkovec or Morehead.
The key to Notre Dame is to apply pressure to them against an offensive line that has remained one of the worst in the nation.
Boston College vs Notre Dame Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boston College and Notre Dame match up statistically:
Boston College Offense vs. Notre Dame Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 128 | 59 | |
| Line Yards | 131 | 65 | |
| Pass Success | 105 | 8 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 93 | 23 | |
| Havoc | 129 | 101 | |
| Finishing Drives | 97 | 77 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Notre Dame Offense vs. Boston College Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 31 | 44 | |
| Line Yards | 13 | 19 | |
| Pass Success | 36 | 59 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 19 | 67 | |
| Havoc | 20 | 42 | |
| Finishing Drives | 81 | 110 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 62 | 2 |
| PFF Coverage | 118 | 65 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 119 | 41 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.1 (61) | 29.0 (112) |
| Rush Rate | 43.4% (118) | 62.5% (14) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Boston College vs Notre Dame Betting Pick
Jeff Hafley’s decision on a starting quarterback for this matchup got much harder after Morehead’s performance against NC State.
I believe that Morehead gives Boston College the best chance at competing against Notre Dame. But I’m under the impression that it will ultimately be Jurkovec under center for this game.
Regardless of who starts, Notre Dame is poised to dominate this matchup.
The Eagles have one of the worst running games in the country that averages just 2.1 yards per carry. That’s due to a whole new starting five this year that has dealt with its fair share of injuries. The lack of blocking up front has had a strong impact on the lack of consistent passing as well.
Notre Dame’s defensive front is in for a field day. The Irish will have a boatload of tackles for loss and constantly pressure whoever starts for Boston College.
Boston College defense isn’t going to be able to slow down Audric Estime. He should be in for a big day ripping of chunk runs consistently.
I’m backing Notre Dame to win this edition of the Holy War in blowout fashion and continue to stay hot.
Pick: Notre Dame -21 |
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