The Boston College Eagles (4-1) head to Charlottesville to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (3-1), who are coming off a bye week.
Boston College had a strong first two weeks, especially after shocking the world against Florida State. However, the Eagles have come back down to earth after falling 27-21 to Missouri and experiencing a few close calls with a 23-19 win over Michigan State and a 21-20 victory against Western Kentucky.
Week 4 saw the Cavaliers come out with a dominating 43-24 win against Coastal Carolina, but there’s no doubt that it’s been a weird season for them. However, there’s reason for hope after the bye week allowed them to get healthier, primarily along the offensive line.
So, where does the betting value lie in this ACC matchup? Take a look at my Boston College vs. Virginia predictions below.
Boston College vs Virginia Prediction
- Boston College vs Virginia Pick: Under 53
My Boston College vs Virginia best bet is on the under, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Boston College vs Virginia Odds
| Boston Col Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -112 | 53 -110o / -110u | -102 |
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 53 -110o / -110u | -118 |
- Boston College vs Virginia Point Spread: Boston College +1.5 (-112) · Virginia -1.5 (-108)
- Boston College vs Virginia Total: Over/Under 53 (-110o / -110u)
- Boston College vs Virginia Moneyline: Boston College -102 · Virginia -118
Boston College vs Virginia Preview
Boston College Eagles Betting Preview: Defense Leading the Way
Quarterback Thomas Castellanos is as electric as they come. He’s well on his way to shattering his career highs, completing passes at a 64% rate and limiting turnovers.
I wish he'd throw the ball a little more as Boston College is passing at a bottom-10 rate. However, the Eagles are first in Explosiveness and second in PPA in Passing Play metrics, while ranking 20th in Passing Down Success Rate.
I also have no issue with Treshaun Ward and Kye Robichaux as running backs. Ward is rushing for six yards per carry with two touchdowns, but it’s clear that running the ball at the rate they’re doing so is limiting the team’s potential.
Perhaps it’s because of the lack of aerial weapons Boston College possesses. The only consistent option that gets the ball is Lewis Bond, who hauls in 12 yards per catch and has the most completions by a wide margin.
Regardless, this program excels defensively. The Eagles are the fifth-best run defense and are 38th in Explosiveness allowed.
Khari Johnson and Max Tucker each have two interceptions, but the one stud is defensive end Donovan Ezeiruaku, who has become a problem for any opposition. He leads the FBS with eight sacks and also has 10 tackles for loss.
Virginia Cavaliers Betting Preview: Was the Bye Week Beneficial?
Anthony Colandrea has a lot of potential and is completing passes at a 68% rate. The problem is his extreme volatility as he's already thrown four interceptions.
Additionally, Virginia is one of the worst third-down teams in the FBS, only converting at a 31.9% rate. What's more, the Cavaliers are 97th and 99th in Passing Down Explosiveness and Success Rate, respectively.
However, I wonder if the returns of offensive linemen McKale Boley and Ty Furnish will help Colandrea. The Cavaliers have used converted tight end Jack Witmer at left tackle and he's fared well, but a matchup with Ezeiruaku will not be a walk in the park for anyone.
Malachi Fields is a favorite target for Colandrea and leads the team in receptions by a decently wide margin while averaging 14.5 yards per carry. Trell Harris, who averages 15.5 YPC, is also a viable option through the air.
Virginia’s rushing statistics may be a little skewed and don’t show just how good it is. It’s ranked 84th in Success Rate and 104th in Explosiveness, but a lot of that can be attributed to Colandrea losing yards from sacks.
Xavier Brown went off against Coastal Carolina, rushing for 171 yards, the most by a Virginia back in six years. He's also rushing at a stunning nine yards per carry pace, which is sixth in the nation.
I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t concerned about the Cavaliers' defense. They allow 27 points per game, rank toward the bottom in Rush Success Rate allowed, rank 107th in Standard Down Success Rate allowed and 101st in Havoc.
Boston College vs Virginia
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boston College and Virginia match up statistically:
Boston College Offense vs. Virginia Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 97 | 78 | |
| Line Yards | 82 | 82 |  |
| Pass Success | 43 | 88 | |
| Havoc | 70 | 108 | |
| Finishing Drives | 55 | 67 | |
| Quality Drives | 54 | 91 | [0]0 |
Virginia Offense vs. Boston College Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 51 | 21 | |
| Line Yards | 24 | 28 | |
| Pass Success | 75 | 62 | |
| Havoc | 26 | 78 | |
| Finishing Drives | 61 | 33 | |
| Quality Drives | 76 | 71 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 14 | 40 |
| PFF Coverage | 40 | 66 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 51 | 53 |
| Middle 8 | 47 | 23 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.4 (110) | 25.4 (29) |
| Rush Rate | 66% (13) | 54% (62) |
Boston College vs Virginia Pick & Prediction
This game doesn’t exactly scream shootout to me, especially considering how limited each program is on the offensive end. To that end, I can’t see Virginia having an offensive party, especially with how dominant Boston College is on the defensive end.
The Cavaliers may be getting two of their starting offensive linemen back, but I can’t envision anyone having an answer for Ezeiruaku.
I think Boston College is the better team, and I have a lot more faith in Castellanos, but 1.5 is too small of a number for me to feel comfortable picking the spread.
The total seems much more feasible. Boston College, aside from Week 2, has found itself in chess matches each week and Virginia’s offense, while electric with the run, is far too volatile for me to put trust in.
Pick: Under 53 (-110)
How to Watch Boston College vs Virginia Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ACC Network |
Boston College vs Virginia Betting Trends
- 52% of the bets and 29% of the money is targeted for the Cavaliers to cover the spread.
- 58% of the tickets and 91% of the money is aimed for the Over.
- Virginia moneyline has 59% of the bets and 71% of the money
