Florida State vs Boston College Odds
| Florida State Seminoles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-16.5 -115 | 51 -110 / -110 | -800 |
| Boston College Eagles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+16.5 -105 | 51 -110 / -110 | +550 |
- Closing Point Spread: Florida State -16.5 | Boston College +16.5
- Closing Total: Over/Under 51
- Closing Moneyline: Florida State -800 | Boston College +550
Down went the Seminoles — again — on Monday night.
After Florida State was upset by Georgia Tech in the opening game of the 2024 college football season in Ireland, Florida State still entered its Week 1 matchup with Boston College as one of the top 10 teams in the nation. That won't be the case in the next Top 25 pull after a 28-13 loss to the Eagles.
Florida State was a 16.5-point favorite and -800 on the moneyline against Boston College on Monday night. The Eagles were +550 to pull off the upset.
Unfortunately, our best bet for Monday was on the Seminoles to cover. Suffice it to say that they did not.
But here's how we previewed the game.
Our Florida State vs. Boston College Preview
Florida State was embarrassed overseas as a double-digit favorite, losing the season opener to Georgia Tech in Ireland by a score of 24-21.
FSU missed 11 tackles in a defensive effort that allowed the Yellow Jackets to generate an elite 71% Success Rate in standard downs. Georgia Tech tripled the national average in methodical drives while averaging 4.2 points when the offense crossed the 40-yard line.
With more than a week of rest and a loss on the schedule, FSU is expected to give a better effort in front of its home crowd in Week 1.
On the other side, Boston College enters the season with a new head coach. Former NFL head coach and Alabama offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien takes over for the Eagles after most recently serving as the New England Patriots' offensive coordinator.
The program was without a coach when Jeff Hafley elected to leave BC for a position with the Green Bay Packers. Hafley cited NIL and various changes to college football as the root cause of the move.
BC will look to fall into a trend that favors Week 1 teams that did not play in Week 0. Since 2016, teams that play in Week 0 are at a disadvantage, with fresh teams in Week covering at a 56% clip.
Expert Picks for Florida State vs. Boston College
SPREAD
My Florida State vs Boston College pick against the spread is on the Seminoles to cover the spread at FSU -17 or better, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
TOTAL
While I'm expecting FSU to be re-energized after its Week 0 loss, I don't have a bet on the over/under.
MONEYLINE
Florida State should win this game, as we're betting the Seminoles to cover the spread. However, I don't see any value on the moneyline.
How to Watch Florida State-Boston College
| Location: | Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL |
| Date: | Monday, Sept. 2 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
The FSU vs BC start time on Monday night is scheduled for a 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff, live on ESPN and ESPN+. You can also stream the game on YouTube TV and other streaming platforms that carry ESPN.
Florida State head coach Mike Norvell has one focus in the week of practice leading up to the game against BC: fundamentals. Not only did the Seminoles tackle poorly, but the defense failed to record a pass breakup or sack.
Slot cornerback Shyheim Brown had the most productive day on the defense, recording 10 tackles and three stops against the Yellow Jackets.
However, pass coverage was a massive issue for the Seminoles, as inside linebacker DJ Lundy allowed catches on all four targets, which led to 53 yards after the catch.
The offense failed to show any explosiveness on the ground, as Roydell Williams averaged 2.4 yards after contact.
While quarterback DJ Uiagalelei wasn't productive in zone-read rush attempts, the sixth-year senior did find success through the air. The former Oregon State and Clemson quarterback completed 18-of-26 passes with an average depth of target of 8.2 yards.
Florida State was excellent at moving the chains. Four of its seven drives contained at least two first downs.
Despite that success, the Seminoles failed to produce a receiving touchdown even with Ja'Khi Douglas and Malik Benson receiving six targets apiece.
Boston College is expected to move to a pro-style system with 12 personnel under O'Brien.
Quarterback Thomas Castellanos returns under center after throwing for 2,249 yards a season ago with a high 5.6% turnover-worthy play rate a season ago. Oddly enough, the junior's numbers are stable in pressured dropbacks, as he holds a 3.4% turnover-worthy play rate in a crowded pocket.
The trench will serve as the anchor for the offense, returning more 77% of snaps and over 100 starts.
Running back Treshaun Ward transfers in for a season from Kansas State after playing four seasons at FSU. The running back lost elusiveness in Manhattan a season ago, falling to 2.9 yards after contact.
Treshaun Ward goes for 118 rushing yards on just 15 carries. His most yards in a game as a Wildcat and the 3rd most of his career.
The blocking by the O-Line/TE/FB was excellent all night pic.twitter.com/9hcFxtGYyB
— The Kansas State Fan (@Thekstatefan) October 19, 2023
The Eagles are a bit of a mystery on the defensive side of the ball, as coordinator Tim Lewis has not coached in the college game since 1994.
Based on Lewis' most recent tenure in the NFL, Boston College will likely field a heavy tackle box with a more aggressive blitz package.
Defensive tackle Cam Horsley put up numbers across the board in 2023, including four quarterback hits and three pass breakups.
How to Bet FSU vs Boston College: Predictions, Spread Pick
Florida State has become re-energized since returning from Dublin, using practice opportunities to focus on fundamentals and correct mistakes from an opening loss.
The Seminoles were stuffed on 33% of their rushing attempts against Georgia Tech, racking up just one run over 12 yards.
However, BC's defensive front is expected to take a step back in stopping the run this season, giving Florida State a chance to stay in standard downs.
More importantly, Castellanos and Ward won't be able to produce the same number of explosives as Georgia Tech. The Eagles' passing attack fell outside the top 100 in Success Rate a season ago, as Castellanos ranked 94th nationally in on-target passing.
Florida State led the nation in on-target passes allowed, so expect improvement in the secondary.
Look for Boston College's new 12 personnel to struggle out of the gate against a Florida State team that has had extra rest after an embarrassing loss on national television.
The Seminoles are expected to play a clean game from a fundamentals perspective. Still, the market has bottomed out from the negativity surrounding Norvell's squad.
With an Action Network projection of Florida State -17.5, look to back the home team to buck the Week 0-to-Week 1 covering trend.
Pick: Florida State -17 or better
Florida State vs Boston College Weather
