MACtion is back, baby!
The Bowling Green Falcons (4-4, 3-1 MAC) travel to take on the Central Michigan Chippewas (3-5, 1-3) to kick off the 2024 edition of one of our favorite events here at Action Network.
This game can be seen on ESPN2 on Tuesday night with kickoff set for 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Falcons are slated as 13.5-point favorites in the contest, steaming up from 9.5 on the opener. The total sits at 48.5, which has come down significantly due to impending wind in the Mount Pleasant, Michigan, area.
Below, read for my Bowling Green vs. Central Michigan predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Bowling Green vs Central Michigan Prediction
- Bowling Green vs Central Michigan Pick: Central Michigan Team Total Under 16.5
My Bowling Green vs Central Michigan best bet is on the Chippewas to score under 16.5 points, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Bowling Green vs Central Michigan Odds
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -108 | 48 -112o / -108u | -535 |
| Central Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -112 | 48 -112o / -108u | +400 |
- Bowling Green vs Central Michigan Point Spread: Bowling Green -14 (-108) · Central Michigan +14 (-112)
- Bowling Green vs Central Michigan Over/Under: 48 Points
- Bowling Green vs Central Michigan Moneyline: Bowling Green -535 · Central Michigan +400
Bowling Green vs Central Michigan Preview
Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview: An Efficient Offense
Bowling Green comes into this one off a big win on the road over Toledo in the “Battle of I-75” 10 days ago.
BGSU never trailed and took control midway through the third quarter, pulling away to keep pace atop the MAC standings.
The Falcons received efficient quarterback play from Connor Bazelak, and tight end Harold Fannin Jr. continues to dazzle in league play. The ground game also saw running back Terion Stewart rush for 99 yards and a touchdown.
Bowling Green's defense rose to the occasion when it mattered most, forcing a turnover and stopping Toledo on downs in the fourth quarter.
There's no room to exhale this week, as the Falcons must continue to pile up conference wins to punch their ticket to the MAC title game in Detroit.
Central Michigan Chippewas Betting Preview: Struggling in Conference Play
CMU enters play as losers of three straight in conference play, and last week might have been rock bottom for the Chips against Miami (OH).
The RedHawks outgained CMU, 518-168, as the Chips' passing attack was held in check and the ground game was pedestrian. CMU did not record an explosive play, and quarterback Tyler Jefferson passed for just 62 yards on seven completions.
Central Michigan's defense was exposed on the ground, as the Chips surrendered 277 rushing yards and 7.1 yards per carry.
The injuries are starting to pile up for CMU, especially on offense, making it extremely difficult to find success.
Being down to a third-string quarterback and down several wide receivers will make the task even tougher against a Bowling Green team peaking at the right time.
Bowling Green vs Central Michigan Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Central Michigan match up statistically:
Bowling Green Offense vs. Central Michigan Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 84 | 75 | |
| Line Yards | 64 | 80 | |
| Pass Success | 31 | 102 | |
| Havoc | 120 | 28 | |
| Finishing Drives | 77 | 61 | |
| Quality Drives | 27 | 122 | |
Central Michigan Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 51 | 60 | |
| Line Yards | 21 | 126 | |
| Pass Success | 117 | 14 | |
| Havoc | 81 | 102 | |
| Finishing Drives | 68 | 56 | |
| Quality Drives | 63 | 80 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 30 | 24 |
| PFF Coverage | 56 | 107 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 65 | 62 |
| Middle 8 | 44 | 89 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.8 (122) | 27.4 (75) |
| Rush Rate | 52% (81) | 57% (47) |
Bowling Green vs Central Michigan Pick & Prediction
I am taking Central Michigan to stay under its team total of 16.5 (+102) currently available at FanDuel.
CMU is down to a third-string quarterback and lacks playmakers on offense.
We saw the offense hit rock bottom 10 days ago against Miami (OH) in a game where it racked up achieved only 12 first downs and punted or turned the ball over on their last nine offensive possessions.
CMU, on the season, ranks just 131st nationally in Offensive Explosiveness and 1344th (dead last) in Offensive Finishing Drives.
Bowling Green has one of the best red-zone defenses in the MAC, allowing touchdowns on just nine of 24 red-zone possessions this year. The Falcons have held teams to an incredible 11 red-zone field goals in 2024.
The Chips lack a passing attack with Jefferson as the quarterback. He played poorly against Miami (OH) and also went just 2-of-8 for six yards against EMU the week prior. Bowling Green ranks 36th nationally in Defensive Passing Success Rate and 16th nationally in Defensive EPA Per Play.
It will be very hard to move the ball against this BG defense with the weapons that CMU will roll out there. Defensively, Bowling Green is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 56% of passes for 181.5 yards per game this season.
A major factor here that will affect play for both teams will be the weather.
Mount Pleasant is expecting 18-20 MPH sustained wind with gusts up to 38 MPH. This will really affect an already inefficient CMU offense that struggles to move the ball through the air.
Bowling Green is the much stronger team here, and CMU's defense has been outmatched several games in a row in league play. I would suspect the Falcons to be laser-focused here defensively and shut down the Chips, who are up against it with personnel, their opponent and the wind.
Pick: Central Michigan Team Total Under 16.5
Bowling Green vs Central Michigan Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, MI |
| Date: | Tuesday, Nov. 5 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Bowling Green takes on Central Michigan in Mount Pleasant at 7:30 p.m. on ESPN2 on Tuesday, Nov. 5.
Bowling Green vs Central Michigan Betting Trends
- 78% of bets and 0% of the money are on C. Michigan to cover the spread
- 87% of bets and 67% of the money on the moneyline are on Bowling Green to win outright
- 82% of bets and 83% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
