Bowling Green Falcons vs Minnesota Golden Gophers Odds
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +130 |
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -160 |
Let's dive into the Bowling Green Falcons vs. Minnesota Golden Gophers odds and make a pick for Tuesday afternoon's Quick Lane Bowl.
Bowling Green and Minnesota meet in Detroit to close out their seasons in the Quick Lane Bowl on Tuesday afternoon.
The Falcons started out the season incredibly poor but rebounded by winning five of their last six games to finish the season 7-5. They will have most of their roster and will definitely be motivated to close out their season with a win over a Power Five team.
Minnesota, meanwhile, snuck into a bowl game with only five wins and also lost its final four games of the regular season.
The Golden Gophers have a lot of potential opt-outs and have already lost their defensive coordinator, so they may not be that motivated for this game.
Where does the betting value lie here? Let's take a look.
Bowling Green Falcons
Bowling Green will have its full offense available outside of running back Terion Stewart, who has been out injured for a while.
The Falcons offense is built on a consistent rushing attack, as they run the ball on 56% of their offensive plays.
Even though Stewart is out, Bowling Green has another dynamic running back in Ta’Ron Keith. Keith is averaging 6.4 yards per carry with a PFF rushing grade of 88.8. He's proven to be an absolute bulldozer this year, averaging 4.1 yards per carry after contact.
Keith will be a big factor against a Minnesota front seven that has been below-average at stopping the run this season.
Connor Bazelak had an up-and-down season but played well down the stretch and was a big reason why Bowling Green won five of its last six games.
Since Week 8, Bazelak has averaged 7.9 yards per attempt while throwing seven touchdowns and one interception. In that span, he ranks top-35 in the country in positive EPA play percentage.
On the other side, Bowling Green’s defense will have to stop the run — something the Falcons have struggled to do consistently, ranking outside the top 100 in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
To make matters worse, outside linebacker Cashius Howell — who led the MAC with 9.5 sacks — has hit the transfer portal along with first-team All-MAC cornerback Jalen Huskey.
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Minnesota Golden Gophers
Minnesota is in an interesting spot at quarterback. Starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis hit the transfer portal, along with backup Drew Viotto. That leaves Cole Kramer, who has taken six snaps this season, in position to start.
Kramer will be handing the ball off quite a bit because Minnesota has one of the highest rush rates in the country at 60.9%.
It looks like star Minnesota running back Darius Taylor is going to play in this game, which is massive for the Golden Gophers, as Taylor hasn't played since their game against Iowa in Week 8.
Taylor averaged 5.7 yards per carry on over 100 totes this season and had three straight 100-yard games.
If he isn't available, Minnesota has plenty of other options to consistently run the ball against Bowling Green's below-average run defense.
The problem with Minnesota this season has been the defense. The Gophers allow 5.8 yards per play and sit outside the top 90 in both Success Rate Allowed and EPA/Play Allowed. They haven't consistently stopped the run or the pass and rank 99th in EPA/Rush Allowed and 102nd in EPA/Pass Allowed.
They're also one of the worst teams in the country at defending their own area of the field, ranking 130th in Finishing Drives Allowed and red-zone scoring percentage allowed.
Bowling Green vs Minnesota
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Minnesota match up statistically:
Bowling Green Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 42 | 90 | |
| Line Yards | 60 | 75 | |
| Pass Success | 86 | 102 | |
| Havoc | 124 | 99 | |
| Finishing Drives | 87 | 130 | |
| Quality Drives | 83 | 85 |  |
Minnesota Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 65 | 110 | |
| Line Yards | 66 | 105 | |
| Pass Success | 114 | 39 | |
| Havoc | 28 | 97 | |
| Finishing Drives | 82 | 49 | |
| Quality Drives | 70 | 47 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 30 | 109 |
| PFF Coverage | 13 | 80 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 125 | 19 |
| Middle 8 | 28 | 103 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.4 (127) | 30.2 (123) |
| Rush Rate | 56.0% (51) | 60.9% (18) |
Bowling Green vs Minnesota
Betting Pick & Prediction
Even though Minnesota will start its third-string quarterback and both offenses play at a snail's pace, I'm not sure how either defense is going to consistently stop the opposing offense.
Bowling Green, which lost two of its best defensive players and hasn't shown the ability to stop the run, is going up against an offense that's going to run it the majority of the time.
The Falcons offense — especially Bazelak — has drastically improved down the stretch. Additionally, Minnesota struggles when it comes to defending its own territory, so Bowling Green should be able to put a lot of points on the board.
The Gophers may have a little extra motivation in this game, however. In 2021, Bowling Green went to Minneapolis as a 30.5-point underdog and won the game outright.
I have 47.2 points projected for this game, so I like the value on over 39.5 points at BetMGM.
Pick: Over 39.5
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