Bowling Green vs Ohio Odds
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -122 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 +100 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -275 |
Bowling Green heads to Athens on Tuesday to match up against Ohio to determine the MAC East Division.
Ohio dropped its opening conference matchup against Kent State back in early October. Since then, the Bobcats have ripped off six straight victories over conference opponents. The 6-1 record has the program atop the MAC East heading into the final game.
But Bowling Green sits a game behind the Bobcats with its 5-2 conference record. The Falcons are coming off a historic win over Toledo as 14.5-point underdogs.
BOWLING GREEN (+465 ML) TOUCHDOWN!!#MACTIONpic.twitter.com/a7byODrWIn
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) November 16, 2022
If Bowling Green can find a victory in this matchup and Buffalo loses to Kent State, it will be the representative from the East Division. If Ohio wins, it will solidify its spot in the MAC Championship.
With plenty on the line in this matchup, can the Falcons continue their unprecedented upset run?
Bowling Green Falcons
Bowling Green has caught fire toward the end of the season, winning four of its last five games over some stiff competition. The Falcons have defeated Miami (OH), Central Michigan and Toledo all as underdogs of a touchdown or more.
That has led the Falcons to bowl eligibility for the first time since 2015. Though, the program has its hopes on a potential MAC Championship berth starting with a victory Tuesday night.
Bowling Green is being outscored by an average of nine points per game against FBS opponents. The offense ranks 99th in scoring, putting up 21.5 points per game, while the defense ranks 95th and allows 30 points per contest.
The metrics don’t do the Falcons much justice, as the program just finds ways to win.
The Falcons have recovered 14 fumbles, which ranks second in the nation. They’ve also blocked four punts, including two for touchdowns, most recently against Toledo last week.
Defensive lineman Karl Brooks ranks third in the nation with 10 sacks and fourth with 17 tackles for loss.
Quarterback Matt McDonald has carried the Bowling Green offense. He’s tossed 21 touchdowns to only five interceptions this season. McDonald is in the good company of Wake Forest's Sam Hartman and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud as the only three quarterbacks who have 10 passing touchdowns on third down this season.
If the Falcons want to find an upset in this matchup, they need McDonald to light up the Ohio secondary that has been suspect this season.
Ohio Bobcats
Ohio has been the cream of the crop in the MAC this season and is certainly the more deserving team based on its recent success.
The Bobcats have now won six straight games against conference opponents with all by one victory coming by double digits. The program has been a cash cow for bettors, covering the spread in all seven of its matchups against MAC foes.
The program's success can be directly attributed to quarterback Kurtis Rourke, who has put together one of the best seasons in Ohio football history. Rourke has thrown 25 touchdowns to only four interceptions while averaging 296 passing yards per game. He’s completing 69% of his passes on 9.2 yards per attempt.
The only issue is Rourke missed the second half last week against Ball State with an injury. At the time of writing, he's questionable to play against Bowling Green, which would be a loss of epic proportions.
At @CoachAlbin's weekly press conference Albin seems to be in good spirits about Kurtis Rourke
Rourke has another visit with the doctor today but is optimistic with the lack of swelling and the fact he is walking with no crutches. Said he'll know more tomorrow@BobcatShowcase
— Ayden Crowley (@aydencrowley4) November 17, 2022
Backup quarterback CJ Harris entered the game with a 14-point lead. The play-calling was very conservative, and Harris finished 5-of-8 for 34 yards through the air.
The defense carried the Bobcats to the finish line in that matchup and may need to recreate that effort against Bowling Green if Rourke is out.
Bowling Green vs Ohio Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Ohio match up statistically:
Bowling Green Offense vs. Ohio Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 107 | 55 | |
| Line Yards | 109 | 49 | |
| Pass Success | 98 | 118 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 113 | 86 | |
| Havoc | 111 | 49 | |
| Finishing Drives | 122 | 66 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Ohio Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 101 | 39 | |
| Line Yards | 81 | 87 | |
| Pass Success | 17 | 90 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 104 | 12 | |
| Havoc | 59 | 40 | |
| Finishing Drives | 75 | 87 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 116 | 125 |
| PFF Coverage | 84 | 118 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 116 | 106 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.4 (63) | 28.5 (107) |
| Rush Rate | 49.5% (94) | 49.5% (93) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Bowling Green vs Ohio Betting Pick
Ohio has been the best team in the MAC East this season. It's covered the spread in all seven conference matchups and has won six in a row by an average margin of 16 points per game.
But that has all been thanks to the incredible play of Rourke.
Rourke is only 43 yards away from breaking the single-season passing yards record for Ohio. It would be heartbreaking if he doesn’t play and misses out on the record while the Bobcats lose their chance at a MAC Championship.
But for us bettors, that’s an opportunity to make some money.
Bowling Green is coming off a massive upset over Toledo in the Battle of I-75. McDonald lit up the Rockets for 395 yards while averaging 11 yards per attempt. He's poised for a similar performance against an Ohio secondary that ranks 116th in Passing Success Rate.
Defensively, Bowling Green will find ways to pressure whichever quarterback is under center for Ohio. The Falcons rank 12th in generating pass rush and will now match up against an offensive line that ranks 104th pass blocking.
Bowling Green will keep this game close with or without Rourke in the lineup thanks to its passing attack. I’m taking the points in a matchup that will come down to the wire.
Pick: Bowling Green +7 (Play to +6) |
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