The Penn State Nittany Lions are coming off an impressive win over the West Virginia Mountaineers in Week 1, and Andy Kotelnicki's offense under Drew Allar was the week's polarizing story.
The Nittany Lions now face the Bowling Green Falcons as a large 35.5-point favorite.
The Falcons are expected to be a good team out of the MAC in 2024, so seeing how much of a fight they can put up will be interesting. Oddsmakers have set the total at 48.5, implying that the Falcons will not score many points.
Let's dive into the matchup below for this MAC/Big Ten clash while I offer a Bowling Green vs. Penn State prediction.
Bowling Green vs Penn State Prediction
- BGSU-Penn State pick: Bowling Green +35 or Better
My Bowling Green vs. Penn State best bet is on the Falcons to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Bowling Green vs Penn State Odds
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+34.5 -110 | 50.5 -120o / +100u | +4000 -20000 |
| Penn State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-34.5 -110 | 50.5 -120o / +100u | |
- Point Spread: Bowling Green +35 (-112) · Penn State -35 (-108)
- Total: Over/Under 50.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Moneyline: Bowling Green +3000 · Penn State -25000
Bowling Green vs Penn State Preview
Bowling Green Falcons Betting Preview: Better Than Some Thought?
The Falcons are coming off a vital home win against Fordham, but some of the box score statistics are concerning. They allowed 401 yards of total offense and have a quick turnaround against a new-look Penn State offense.
Connor Bazelak returns under center for the Falcons, and the former Missouri Tiger has to step up to cover the number. The Mountaineers could not build a rhythm through the air last week against Penn State, so that's one of the keys to the game.
Their offense ranked 36th in offensive explosiveness last season. Surprisingly, Penn State ranked 99th for a group with multiple players departing for the NFL in the offseason.
Terion Stewart was electric last week, rushing for 161 yards on just 14 carries. He's a legitimate stud and will need to break through for some big runs to give the Falcons a chance at covering the number.
The Falcons also have the advantage of not losing anyone noteworthy in the offseason, and their defense was outstanding in 2023. They ranked in the top quarter of the country in defensive explosiveness allowed, Havoc and standard down explosiveness.
There was far too much love out there for Penn State last week despite looking very impressive on offense. Oddsmakers can be disrespectful, but this time, they're aligned with our Action Network projections of Penn State -34.
Penn State Nittany Lions Betting Preview: A One-Dimensional Squad
The Nittany Lions looked like a completely new squad last week. Kotelnicki's offense looked electric, including multiple deep passing attempts by Allar.
It's tough to determine what they'll look like this week, but I expect another heavy dose of downfield passing. However, I don't think we're in for a trucking.
First off, this is a flat spot for the Nittany Lions. While West Virginia isn't a conference rival, the Mountaineers have been a program on the rise, so Penn State will be riding high into the matchup.
West Virginia was projected to be a contender in the Big 12, so it was undoubtedly a big win for James Franklin, who seems to always cover as a favorite of a touchdown or more. Franklin is among the best in the nation ATS (20-4-1) during his tenure at Penn State.
Besides the scary factor that Franklin loves pouring it on against bad teams, many overlook how underrated the Falcons were last season.
BGSU ranked 13th in rushing explosiveness, and we already discussed how elite they were on defense. There is a major talent discrepancy, but at least at the skill positions, they have players who can hang tough.
Despite a strong performance last week, Penn State's defense is still be a question mark. It ranked 87th in Defensive Finishing Drives and Defensive Success Rate last season — and that's with talented NFL players on that side of the ball.
I'm selling Penn State high here. Even if it has a big lead, I could see Bazelek sneaking in the backdoor.
Bowling Green vs Penn State Pick & Prediction
I hate Franklin; everybody and their mother knows it. But without being biased, I think the number is far too large here.
I understand how good Jimmy Boy is against the spread in these situations, but the Falcons differ from your typical run-of-the-mill MAC program. I like their defense, and they'll be able to keep the game close late.
All we need to do is hope that the Falcons have the ball in the final possession because you know that Franklin is willing to commit crimes to cover for the alumni.
Pick: Bowling Green +35 or Better
How to Watch Bowling Green vs Penn State
| Location: | Beaver Stadium, University Park, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | Big Ten Network |
Bowling Green-Penn State Betting Trends
- 72% of the tickets generated and 63% of the money is targeted at Penn State covering.
- 78% of the tickets and 42% of the money is aimed at the over.
BGSU-Penn State Weather
