Time to put on some shades, make a piña colada and take a dip in your inflatable pool because the 10th annual Bahamas Bowl is upon us. The Liberty Flames (8-3, 5-3 Conference USA) take on the Buffalo Bulls (8-4, 6-2 MAC) at 11 a.m. ET on ESPN2.
Neither team has played since late November, but Liberty is at a massive disadvantage. Five of its starters entered the transfer portal, including starting quarterback Kaidon Salter, who was a major driving force of this offense.
Buffalo is in the completely opposite position, as it doesn’t expect many opt-outs. The Bulls have only two players in the transfer portal, and one of them — the kicker — intends to finish the season strong.
Where does the betting value lie? Check out my Buffalo vs. Liberty predictions and college football picks for the 2024 Bahamas Bowl on Saturday, Jan. 4.
Buffalo vs Liberty Prediction
- Buffalo vs. Liberty Pick: Buffalo -3 · Under 50.5
My Liberty vs. Buffalo best bet is on the Bulls to cover the spread and both teams to stay under the total, with the best line currently available at ESPN Bet, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Buffalo vs Liberty Odds
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -145 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
- Buffalo vs Liberty Spread: Buffalo -3 (-105) · Liberty +3 (-115)
- Buffalo vs Liberty Over/Under: 50.5 Points
- Buffalo vs Liberty Moneyline: Buffalo -145 · Liberty +125
Buffalo vs Liberty Preview
Buffalo Bulls Betting Preview: Difference-Makers on Defense
I mentioned that Buffalo will have nearly a full roster. Only receiver Javien Cuff opted out due to the portal, but Cuff was only sixth in completions, so his absence shouldn't be huge.
Quarterback C.J. Ogbonna had himself an OK season. His accuracy wasn’t great, with a 57% completion rate, but he did a good job limiting turnovers with only five interceptions.
The problem is that Buffalo is a run-first team, running the ball at a top-20 rate.
While Liberty is as well, Ogbonna’s accuracy issues pose a problem. The Bulls were 106th in Passing Down Success Rate and even worse with the 129th-ranked Passing Success Rate.
To make matters worse, with how much they run the ball, they only have one legit running weapon in Al-Jay Henderson. Overall, as a unit, Buffalo sits 107th in Rushing Success Rate.
A lot has to do with Ogbonna’s 2.9 yards per carry and the fact he's been sacked 20 times, but regardless, Henderson is the only viable running threat on this team.
Receivers Victor Snow and JJ Jenkins are solid pieces for Ogbonna. Snow led the team with six touchdowns, while Jenkins is the more explosive receiver, amassing nearly 15 yards per catch.
On the other side of the ball, with most of Liberty’s O-line skipping town, the Buffalo defense has to be licking its chops like it’s looking at a plate of wings from Anchor Bar.
Linebacker Shaun Dolac was one of the better defensive players in college football with 16.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks. Along with that, he tied for third in the nation with five interceptions and led the country in total tackles and interception return yards.
Additionally, EDGE rusher Kobe Stewart has been a problem for opposing tackles. He’s created Havoc, registering 12 tackles for loss and a team-leading 9.5 sacks.
Liberty Flames Betting Preview: Sending Reinforcements
The record may say 8-3, but how did we get here? The Flames started with an immaculate 5-0 record and then they got humbled by going 3-3 in their final six games.
With Salter gone and headed to Boulder, we should expect to see sophomore quarterback Ryan Burger take snaps. Burger barely saw the field, attempting only seven passes and completing four of them.
The jury is out on the Appalachian State transfer, and it feels like his team has hung him out to dry. He’ll be missing three members of his offensive line with both tackles and left guard entering the portal.
It’s a crucial blow to a program that ranked 17th in Havoc allowed.
I’ll be curious to see if he finds a rapport with his receivers, most notably Treon Sibley and Elijah Canion — both of whom averaged over 14 yards per catch in limited reps.
Most of the Flames’ production came on the ground. They run at a top-25 rate, and Quinton Cooley was a man-possessed this season. He rushed for over 1,200 yards and 13 touchdowns on 6.1 yards per carry but won't play in this game after opting out to focus on the NFL Draft.
With Cooley out, you can count on Billy Lucas to pick up the slack, who had five scores at over five yards per carry.
Both backs (as well as Salter) helped Liberty rank 40th in Rushing Success Rate and could break through Buffalo, which comes in at 91st in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
The defense could’ve been better down the stretch, but overall, this is a solid defensive program. The Flames rank 50th in Standard Down Success Rate and 38th in scoring defense.
Buffalo vs Liberty Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Buffalo and Liberty match up statistically:
Buffalo Offense vs. Liberty Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 114 | 37 | |
| Line Yards | 108 | 25 | |
| Pass Success | 90 | 62 | |
| Havoc | 69 | 81 | |
| Finishing Drives | 36 | 55 | |
| Quality Drives | 108 | 63 | |
Liberty Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 76 | |
| Line Yards | 6 | 75 | |
| Pass Success | 58 | 93 | |
| Havoc | 33 | 44 | |
| Finishing Drives | 39 | 75 | |
| Quality Drives | 52 | 66 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 24 | 67 |
| PFF Coverage | 11 | 73 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 50 | 85 |
| Middle 8 | 76 | 6 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.2 (36) | 26.7 (61) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (29) | 65% (6) |
Buffalo vs Liberty Pick & Prediction
Buffalo being at full strength is the only advantage it needs in this game.
If everything played out in the Flames' favor, I'd see Liberty winning this. But we can't always get what we want. Given how shorthanded Liberty is, rolling out a quarterback with no career starts behind a group of mostly backup offensive linemen will not be easy.
I don’t think the Bulls are a perfect program, but I like the pieces they have. Along with Dolac and Stewart, linebacker Dion Crawford is a menace, and I’m curious if defensive back Marquis Cooper — who missed the season finale due to injury — suits up.
Not only do I think this game goes under the posted total of 50.5, but I also see Buffalo covering. Most of this contest will be dictated by the ground game, as well as Liberty being shorthanded.
Pick: Buffalo -3 · Under 50.5
Buffalo vs Liberty Start Time, TV Channel, Location How to Watch
| Location: | Thomas Robinson Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas |
| Date: | Saturday, Jan. 4 |
| Kickoff Time: | 11 a.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Buffalo takes on Liberty in the Bahamas Bowl on Saturday, Jan. 4 at 11 a.m. ET on ESPN2.
