Buffalo vs Toledo Odds
| Buffalo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -105 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | +500 |
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -115 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | -700 |
To celebrate the start of MACtion, the college football schedule-makers have given us a pivotal matchup on Halloween night.
Toledo leads the MAC West after sweeping the first half of the conference schedule. The Rockets technically lead by two games over a 3-1 Northern Illinois team thanks to a heads-up victory during Week 5.
Jason Candle will now take Toledo to its seventh bowl game since his promotion in 2015.
Buffalo has a less comfortable position in the MAC East, as Bowling Green stands as its only conference loss on the schedule. However, the Bulls are set to start a three-game stretch that includes Toledo, Miami (OH) and Ohio.
Head coach Maurice Linguist needs every victory to reach a second bowl with the Buffalo program, as the Bulls are 3-5 on the season. A loss here would not only put the East Division in jeopardy but would force Buffalo to win out to reach bowl eligibility.
Buffalo has taken three straight from Toledo dating back to 2018, a streak the Rockets would like to end while wrapping up the West Division.
Buffalo Bulls
Quarterback Cole Snyder has improved in his second season at Buffalo. After transferring from Rutgers, Snyder posted 17 big-time throws to 28 turnover-worthy plays in 2022. A turnover-worthy rate of 5.1% has been cut in half this season, but a dip in his average depth of target has changed the explosiveness of the Bulls.
New offensive coordinator DJ Mangas runs exclusively in 11 personnel with inside zone serving as the run concept on more than 80% of rushing attempts.
Running backs Ron Cook Jr. and Mike Washington have struggled to create explosive plays all season, producing just five runs over 15 yards through 160 attempts.
The team's success has suffered even more in passing attempts, falling to 128th in Success Rate and 116th in on-target rate.
Cole Snyder finds Cole Harrity for the touchdown! pic.twitter.com/O9mKCpPTbR
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 2, 2023
Defensive coordinator Robert Wright has been successful with his 3-3-5 defense, producing top-25 ranks in Line Yards and Success Rate against the pass.
Buffalo uses multiple nickel packages with Cover 3 to stifle opposing offenses. The Bulls are 15th in the nation defending the explosive pass, ranking 26th in Success Rate in passing downs.
Cornerback Jayden Oliver leads the team with four pass breakups, playing both sides of the field in an effort to shut down the opponent's best receiving weapon.
One missing aspect in the Havoc department is the pass rush, generating a rank of 119th with just 62 pressures this season.
Toledo Rockets
Toledo has lived up to its preseason billing as the best team in the MAC, as its only loss came by two points at Illinois.
Strength of schedule (128th in FBS) plays a part in the Rockets' record, as the Rockets have covered just three of their eight games played this season.
They've been fortunate in their last three conference victories, winning by an average margin of 4.3 points. Despite the close calls, the offense has been steady in moving the chains and cashing in on scoring opportunities.
Quarterback Dequan Finn has 14 touchdowns to just five interceptions, but he has the highest turnover-worthy play rate of his career. Hampered by injury last season, Finn has generated 15 runs of 10 yards or more while fumbling the ball a career low of just once.
The quarterback is assisted by one of the best running backs in the conference in Peny Boone.
Dequan Finn finds Peny Boone for six!
Toledo extends its lead to double-digits 💪 pic.twitter.com/eUt1zH090S
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 3, 2023
Boone averages nearly four yards after contact, creating 31 missed tackles this season, while Toledo ranks 10th nationally in rushing attempts that get stopped at or before the line of scrimmage.
Finn has a number of targets in the passing game, as Junior Vandeross and Larry Stephens both average more than two yards per route run.
While the offense has been one of the best at the Group of Five level, the defense has been less stable.
The Rockets run a 3-3-5 look similar to Buffalo, running a heavy amount of quarters coverage. Toledo has been excellent against the pass, ranking top-20 in pass rush and coverage grading.
The discussion around defense begins and ends with cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, who has generated the third-most forced incompletions at 10.
Toledo has had issues stopping the run in a number of games, but Mitchell has helped the Rockets to a top-15 rank in Success Rate on passing downs.
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Buffalo vs Toledo
Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Buffalo and Toledo match up statistically:
Buffalo Offense vs. Toledo Defense
 |  Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 58 | 73 | |
| Line Yards | 98 | 99 |  |
| Pass Success | 128 | 28 | |
| Havoc | 34 | 62 | |
| Finishing Drives | 47 | 20 | |
| Quality Drives | 112 | 31 | |
Toledo Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 15 | 38 | |
| Line Yards | 7 | 16 | |
| Pass Success | 16 | 21 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 56 | |
| Finishing Drives | 6 | 50 | |
| Quality Drives | 48 | 74 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 116 | 13 |
| PFF Coverage | 71 | 7 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 83 | 52 |
| Middle 8 | 87 | 8 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.9 (49) | 25.3 (41) |
| Rush Rate | 49.2% (99) | 61.3% (11) |
Buffalo vs Toledo
Betting Pick & Prediction
Toledo is 3-5 against the spread with an average cover margin of less than a point.
The Rockets have struggled to get out of the gates in most games, covering just two first-half spreads so far this season. Candle has led Toledo to a 19-28-1 ATS record in the first half since the 2019 season.
A similar trend applies to the MAC as a whole during midweek November games. Per Action Labs, Mid-American home teams hosting on Tuesday or Wednesday during the month of November are just 24-40-1 against the first-half spread since 2019.
Toledo certainly has a stranglehold in this game on both sides of the ball from a Quality and Finishing Drives perspective.
Finn will be throwing into Buffalo's Cover 3, a coverage package the quarterback has dominated. In 120 passing attempts against Cover 3, the Rockets have a 61% Success Rate with a high number of expected points.
Buffalo will combat this with a secondary that brings a high efficiency against the deep pass. Buffalo has allowed just seven passes to go beyond 30 yards this season. Considering the Bulls have been stout against the run, Toledo will have periods without scoring while relying on sporadic chunk plays.
If there's a weakness for Buffalo to exploit, the rushing attempts on inside zone from Cook and Washington may be the direct path. Toledo ranks 15th in Defensive Rushing Success Rate against a soft schedule of ground attacks, but the statistics surrounding its play against inside zone tell a different story.
Toledo has seen severe struggles in Success Rate against inside zone with 11 personnel no matter how many players load the box.
There's one constant with midweek MAC games, as the steam before kickoff can be the most aggressive during the college football season.
Action Network projects Toledo -17.5, while an opener of 14 has climbed through the dead zone with buy-back at 16.5.
There's sure to be a rush of Toledo money before kick considering the overall records of the two teams. There are a number of reasons to look for an investment on Buffalo, as Toledo struggles with inside zone and ranks 113th nationally in penalties.
The Rockets have been in one-possession games in nearly every single game this season. Look for steam in the market before kick with a Buffalo first-half number as the focus.
Pick: Buffalo 1H +10 or Better
