The BYU Cougars (4-0) look to build off their upset win over Kansas State when they travel to Texas to take on the Baylor Bears (2-2). The game is sest to kick off at 12 p.m. ET on FS1 and is streaming on YouTube TV, the FOX Sports app and other streaming platforms.
Baylor is currently a consensus 3-point favorite over BYU on the spread (Baylor -3), with some sportsbooks having that line at Baylor -3.5. The over/under sits at 46 points scored. Baylor is a -155 favorite on the moneyline to win outright, with BYU +125 to pull off the slight upset.
BYU pulled off a big upset late Saturday night in Provo, dominating Kansas State 38-9. The win keeps the Cougars undefeated, and they've already passed two big road tests in beating SMU and Wyoming. Baylor lost in heartbreaking fashion 31-28 late Saturday night in Boulder, as Colorado was able complete a Hail Mary on the final play and beat the Bears in overtime. The loss dropped Baylor to .500, and head coach Dave Aranda is already on one of the hottest seats in college football.
Baylor needs this win, but will it get it? Let's get to my BYU vs. Baylor predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 28
BYU vs. Baylor Odds, Picks, Predictions
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -108 | 46 -112o / -108u | +130 |
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -112 | 46 -112o / -108u | -155 |
- BYU vs. Baylor spread: Baylor -3
- BYU vs. Baylor over/under: 46 points
- BYU vs. Baylor moneyline: Baylor -155, BYU +125
- BYU vs. Baylor pick: BYU to cover the spread (Bet to +3)
My Baylor vs. BYU best bet for Saturday is on the Cougars to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM. Be sure to shop around for all the best lines for your bets with our live NCAAF odds page.
BYU vs. Baylor College Football Week 5 Preview
Jake Retzlaff started the final four games of the regular season for BYU last year, and it didn't go well. He only averaged 5.1 yards per attempt and had a 46.7 PFF passing grade.
However, this season, he's drastically improved, averaging 8.5 yards per attempt and bumping his PFF passing grade up to 72.3.
His main problem is turning the ball over, as he's already had six turnover worthy plays in four games. The good news for him is that Baylor's defense is below average in terms of generating Havoc.
BYU has struggled to run the ball, and even though it put up 38 points against Kansas State, it only had 92 rushing yards and averaged 3.4 yards per carry. For the season, the Cougars are 88th in rushing success rate.
The biggest problem is that they don't have their best running back, LJ Martin, available. He wasn't listed on the depth chart for this upcoming game, which means freshman Sione I Moa will be getting a load of the carries again.
The BYU defense had a field day against a below average quarterback on Saturday night, forcing three turnovers and holding the Wildcats to just nine points.
The bright spot has been the Cougars secondary, which is 12th in passing success rate allowed and 18th in passing explosiveness allowed. They came into last season with zero returning starters, but essentially have five back this season and are already seeing drastic improvements.
Baylor Football
There are questions about who will start at quarterback for Baylor. Dequan Finn missed the previous game against Colorado with a shoulder injury, but after that game, one thing is pretty clear — Sawyer Robertson is a downgrade from Finn.
Robertson really struggled against Colorado and was aided by Baylor's rushing attack. In that game, Robertson went 11-for-21 for 148 yards and had two turnover worthy plays.
The Bears ran the ball effectively for four yards per carry in the game, but haven't been very efficient overall. They rank 98th in rushing success rate as the offensive line just hasn't done a good enough job opening running lanes.
Per PFF, they rank 93rd in terms of a run blocking grade and are also 97th in offensive line yards. That's problem as they'll have to run the ball Saturday because throwing into BYU's secondary is a nightmare right now.
The Baylor defense has been very good this season, despite giving 38 points to Colorado. It all starts with stopping the run, which is a good thing against BYU. The Bears held Colorado to 2.2 yards per carry last Saturday and are 11th in rushing success rate allowed on the season.
Baylor brought back almost everyone on the defensive side of the ball, but it's been pretty shaky against the pass, just like it was last season.
Playing Tarleton State and Air Force is going to make all of Baylor's metrics against the pass look good, but Shedeur Sanders torched the Bears for 341 yards and two touchdowns.
Last season, Baylor was one of the worst secondaries in the country, ranking 128th in EPA/Pass allowed. This season, the Bears are 120th in terms of a PFF coverage grade.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how BYU and Baylor match up statistically:
BYU Offense vs. Baylor Defense
 |  Offense |  Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 88 | 11 | |
| Line Yards | 76 | 36 | |
| Pass Success | 62 | 16 | |
| Havoc | 53 | 81 | |
| Finishing Drives | 92 | 22 | |
| Quality Drives | 58 | 24 | |
Baylor Offense vs. BYU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 98 | 67 | |
| Line Yards | 97 | 70 | |
| Pass Success | 89 | 12 | |
| Havoc | 90 | 44 | |
| Finishing Drives | 99 | 37 | |
| Quality Drives | 92 | 36 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 50 | 37 |
| PFF Coverage | 34 | 120 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 34 | 29 |
| Middle 8 | 9 | 78 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.6 (121) | 24.5 (16) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (59) | 63% (20) |
BYU vs. Baylor Prediction
In terms of the spot, Baylor would be the play coming off a horrible loss, while BYU is coming off the massive win over Kansas State.
The one thing BYU has proven this season is that it's been good on the road.
This game is going to be a defensive struggle as both teams haven't been able to move the ball effectively and are outside the top 90 in finishing drives.
Retzlaff's improvements give BYU some hope, especially against a really bad Baylor secondary.
Kalani Sitake has also been good as an underdog over his nine seasons at BYU, so I like the value on the Cougars at +3.5.
Pick: BYU +3.5 (Play to +3)
How to Watch BYU vs. Baylor
| Location: | McLane Stadium, Waco, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FS1 / YouTube TV, FOX Sports app |
Baylor vs. BYU is set to start at 12 p.m. ET on FS1 on Saturday. The game is streaming live on YouTube TV, the FOX Sports app and other streaming platforms.
