The Kansas State Wildcats enter this week 3-0 after a 31-7 victory over Arizona last Friday. They moved up to No. 13 in the AP Poll after last week's victory, and they also have a road victory over a solid Tulane team. This week, the Wildcats will hit the road again to battle the BYU Cougars.
BYU is also 3-0 and is coming off a 34-14 victory at Wyoming. In Week 2, it won outright as a double-digit underdog with an 18-15 victory at SMU. The Cougars will be underdogs again this week, this time on their home turf.
Kansas State wants to establish the run, while BYU will look to air it out. It remains to be seen which style which prevail, but it will establish a framework for this same-game parlay.
Let's get to my BYU vs. Kansas State pick, prediction and same-game parlay.
BYU vs. Kansas State Odds
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +215 |
| Kansas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -267 |
BYU vs. Kansas State Picks, Predictions, Parlay
- Jake Retzlaff 225+ Alt Passing Yards (+112)
- Chase Roberts 60+ Alt Receiving Yards (+108)
- DJ Giddens 80+ Alt Rushing Yards (-245)
- Avery Johnson 60+ Rushing Yards (+114)
Parlay Odds: +873 via FanDuel
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
Jake Retzlaff 225+ Passing Yards (+112)
Jake Retzlaff enters this week seventh in the Big 12 with 841 passing yards. He has thrown for 200 yards in each of BYU's first three games.
He soared over that mark with 348 passing yards against Southern Illinois and added 291 passing yard last week in typically windy conditions in Laramie.
Retzlaff will face a Kansas State defense that is allowing just 13.3 points per game, but it can be had through the air. Kansas State is 93rd in the country, allowing 236 passing yards per game and it is also 74th in Passing Success Rate.
In the last two weeks, Kansas State has allowed 342 passing yards to Tulane's Darian Mensah and 268 yards to Arizona's Noah Fifita.
Retzlaff is averaging 31.3 pass attempts per game, and with BYU being an underdog, he may have to throw it a ton if BYU is trailing in the second half. When he does drop back, one receiver he will be targeting is Chase Roberts.
Chase Roberts 60+ Receiving Yards (+108)
Thus far, Retzlaff's two biggest passing games coincide with big games from Roberts. The junior had 108 receiving yards against Southern Illinois and 129 yards last week against Wyoming. He leads the team with 15 receptions for 263 yards this season.
Roberts already has receptions of 25 and 30 yards this season, and Kansas State is 115th in defending passing explosiveness this season.
Tulane's Mario Williams (128 receiving yards) and Dontae Fleming (97 receiving yards) both had big games against Kansas State. Meanwhile, Tetairoa McMillan had 138 receiving yards on 11 receptions, while Montana Lemonious-Craig had 75 yards himself last week.
McMillan has an argument for being the best receiver in the country, so there's no shame in giving up a big game to him. However, he's a big target at 6-foot-5 and Roberts is 6-foot-4 himself.
Roberts may have his third 100-yard game of the season in this one, and he's +390 for 100 yards at FanDuel. However, he's still at plus-money for just 60 yards, which he may only need three or four catches to reach.
DJ Giddens 80+ Rushing Yards (-245) & Avery Johnson 60+ Rushing Yards (+114)
In contrast to BYU, Kansas State is averaging 167.7 passing yards per game compared to 244.3 rushing yards per game. Leading the way in its backfield are running back DJ Giddens and quarterback Avery Johnson.
Giddens has run for 324 yards on 6.6 yards per carry this season. He already has two 100-yard games this season.
However, dating back to last season, he has run for 80 yards in seven straight and in nine of his last 10 games. That includes 86 rushing yards against Arizona last week.
The hit rate is not as strong for Johnson, who has ran for 60 yards just once thus far, but he ran for 110 yards on 17 carries last week. He carried just 11 times total in Kansas State's first two games.
Perhaps the plan was to conserve him as a runner until conference play. Johnson also ran for 71 yards and a touchdown in Kansas State's Pop-Tarts Bowl victory over NC State.
BYU ranks 48th in Rushing Success Rate and 40th with 105 rushing yards allowed per game. However, it has yet to face a rushing attack like Kansas State's.
Even with that, running quarterbacks have found success against the Cougars. In Week 1, they gave up 121 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Southern Illinois quarterback DJ Williams. Wyoming quarterback Evan Svoboda ran for two touchdowns and 32 yards last week while SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings ran for 38 yards against them. They also allowed 75 yards to SMU running back Brashard Smith in that game as well.
The Cougars are 117th in defending rushing explosiveness, and Kansas State is certainly capable of gashing it on the ground. Giddens and Johnson each have had at least one run of 17 yards in their first three games, and Giddens has two runs of 40 yards already.
A few big runs will help them reach these lines, but they should have volume as well with 77 combined carries. With 15 carries from Giddens and 11 to 12 for Johnson, they should combine for 140 yards against the Cougars.
