BYU vs Stanford Odds
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -240 |
| Stanford Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +196 |
It's pretty much the last regular-season game of the year. Let's bet it.
BYU vs. Stanford features a Cougars team heading to a bowl game and a Cardinal team perhaps ready to move on from their head coach.
But don't get it twisted: Neither BYU nor Stanford have lived up to their expectations this season. In fact, both have been downright horrendous for bettors in particular.
Stanford enters the regular-season finale tied for the worst mark against the spread (2-9 ATS) in the country. BYU, meanwhile, isn't much better, tied for the fifth-worst cover rate nationally (3-8 ATS, 27.3%).
Something's gotta give when the two meet Saturday. Right?
… Right?
BYU: Boy, You're Underwhelming
Last year's Cougars offense was fifth in the nation in yards per play. Despite bringing virtually every key piece back, BYU never really got completely right.
They won and covered both games out the gates, including a 26-20 overtime win over Baylor.
However, that kick-started a 4-5 stretch for Kilane Sitake's team, which enters Saturday's Stanford contest on a heinous 1-8 skid against the spread.
Injuries have been prominent since the opener, and the theme's true with the finale approaching.
Despite owning the best pass-blocking unit in the country, BYU's missed top pass-catchers Gunner Romney, Puka Nacua and Kody Epps all at one point or another.
Truthfully, the offense has fared well considering the circumstances. The Cougars rank top-30 nationally in total yards per game, turnovers committed, Pass Success, and allowing Havoc, all while averaging a respectable 31.6 points per game.
Problem is, the defense stinks.
BYU's barely getting a push up front (125th in Line Yards), and only one other defense is worse at letting other teams finish drives than the Cougars.
Shaw's Final Swan Song for Stanford?
Stanford's gotta be thankful the University of Colorado football team exists, or else I wouldn't hold back.
It's been a nightmare season for David Shaw's squad, outside of a surprise win over Notre Dame that sounds really good out loud, until you realize that same team lost to Marshall.
The pinnacle of the Cardinal's season also happened to fire up an 0-5 run against the spread immediately post-Fighting Irish, as Stanford's been negatively competitive.
They were outscored 132-34 over a three-game span to UCLA, Wazzu and Utah, then lost to a decrepit Cal team last week despite leading by double digits.
Shaw's rallying cry this week was sending the seniors out with a win (lol?), but I'm not buying any sort of motivation — especially defensively, where Stanford's letting opponents do whatever they want.
BYU vs Stanford Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how BYU and Stanford match up statistically:
BYU Offense vs. Stanford Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 81 | 125 | |
| Line Yards | 55 | 130 | |
| Pass Success | 30 | 58 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 1 | 58 | |
| Havoc | 25 | 73 | |
| Finishing Drives | 35 | 95 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Stanford Offense vs. BYU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 77 | 111 | |
| Line Yards | 119 | 125 | |
| Pass Success | 90 | 106 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 104 | 119 | |
| Havoc | 97 | 122 | |
| Finishing Drives | 58 | 130 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 70 | 97 |
| PFF Coverage | 83 | 103 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 73 | 17 |
| Seconds per Play | 26.5 (68) | 26.0 (55) |
| Rush Rate | 48.5% (98) | 46.8% (108) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
BYU vs Stanford Betting Pick
Fading Stanford's offense has become one of my favorite Saturday traditions, but even I can't pull the trigger against a BYU defense that has allowed seven of the last nine opponents to go over the team total.
And the offenses over that sample include Utah State, Wyoming and something called Utah Tech.
Neither team runs the ball, tackles well, or has the ability to cover receivers consistently.
Stanford's quietly allowed nearly 40 points per game over the last four. BYU probably doesn't even need that to cash this total, but its high-powered offense certainly can.
Pick: Over 57.5 (Play to 58.5) |
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