The BYU Cougars (7-0, 4-0 Big 12) will attempt to defend their undefeated record on the road this week as they travel over 2,300 miles east to Orlando to take on the UCF Knights (3-4, 1-3).
This Big 12 matchup is set to take place in FBC Mortgage Stadium at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN this Saturday afternoon.
The Cougars may be undefeated on the season, but they're surprisingly the underdogs in this matchup at +1.5 with the over/under sitting at 55.
After digging into the numbers behind these two teams, it may not be as much of a surprise as you'd think.
Let’s take a look at my BYU vs UCF predictions and college football picks for this matchup on Saturday, Oct. 26.
BYU at UCF Odds
| BYU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 53.5 -115o / -105u | +115 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 53.5 -115o / -105u | -135 |
- BYU vs UCF Spread: UCF -2.5
- BYU vs UCF Over/Under: 53.5 Points
- BYU vs UCF Moneyline: UCF -135 · BYU +115
BYU vs UCF Picks and Predictions
- BYU at UCF Pick: UCF -2.5
Prediction
My BYU at UCF best bet is for the Knights to cover the spread. For the best line, check out our live NCAAF odds page.
Moneyline
PASS
Against the Spread
UCF -2.5
Over/Under
PASS
BYU Football vs UCF Football Preview
BYU Cougars Betting Preview: Keeping the Streak Alive
BYU has shocked the world to this point with its 7-0 record.
This team had a preseason over/under of 4.5 wins and was 150-1 to win the Big 12 Championship. With its undefeated season to this point, it now has the third-best odds to win the conference at +380.
Jake Retzlaff has anchored this team from the quarterback position, averaging 0.14 EPA per Dropback with 1,528 yards, 15 touchdowns and seven interceptions on the year.
The Cougars run a fairly balanced attack, but explosive passes have been their strength. They rank 76th in Pass Success Rate and 43rd in EPA Per Pass this year.
On the ground, BYU ranks 67th in Rush Success Rate and 61st in EPA Per Rush. Overall, this puts it at 78th in Success Rate and 55th in EPA Per Play. These are good numbers but hardly those of an undefeated team at this point in the season.
BYU’s offensive line has been a strength this year. It ranks 32nd in PFF’s Run Blocking grade and 18th in Pass Blocking grade.
Defensively, the Cougars have been well above average, ranking 40th in Success Rate allowed and 34th in EPA Per Play allowed. They're 21st in Pass Success Rate allowed and 13th in EPA Per Pass allowed, as this is one of the top pass defenses in the Big 12.
If you want to move the ball against BYU, the best way to do so is on the ground. The Cougs sit 72nd in Rush Success Rate allowed and 106th in EPA Per Rush allowed.
The Cougars also rank 48th in PFF’s Run Defense grades but only 91st in PFF Tackling grade, which explains their propensity to allow explosive runs.
UCF Knights Betting Preview: Run Game Improved With QB Change
The Knights rank 14th in Success Rate and 48th in EPA Per Play this season, which isn’t typical for a team that's 3-4 overall and 1-3 in conference.
Head coach Gus Malzahn made the move to go away from veteran transfer starting quarterback KJ Jefferson a few weeks ago and now believes he has found his guy in Miami transfer Jacurri Brown.
Brown has thrown for only 269 yards and completed barely over 50% of his passes in the last two weeks but has run 29 times for 238 yards against Cincinnati and Iowa State.
UCF’s rushing attack also has RJ Harvey out of the backfield, who has 102 carries for 712 yards and nine touchdowns on the year. This has helped UCF to rank second in Rush Success Rate and fifth in EPA Per Pass.
The Knights haven’t been good passing the ball all season, but this also hasn’t been a focus of theirs, as they're only 118th in pass plays per game compared to fourth in rushes per game.
Defensively, the Knights have been decent overall but particularly strong against the run. They rank 61st in Success Rate allowed and 55th in EPA Per Play allowed but 18th and 41st against the run, respectively, in these two statistics.
They are also 45th in PFF’s Run Defense grade as well.
Their passing defense has struggled, ranking 101st in Pass Success Rate allowed and 74th in EPA per Pass allowed. UCF sits 30th in PFF Coverage grade, however, suggesting that the quality of its secondary hasn’t been the issue.
Rather, I think its opponents have played a large part in this. All five of UCF’s Power 4 opponents this season rank in the top 50 in terms of Pass Success Rate.
I think UCF’s defensive numbers against the pass would look much better on an opponent-adjusted basis, as it likely isn't as bad as its unadjusted numbers make it out to be.
UCF vs BYU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCF vs BYU match up statistically:
BYU Offense vs. UCF Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 59 | 7 | |
| Line Yards | 50 | 16 | |
| Pass Success | 63 | 79 | |
| Havoc | 30 | 87 | |
| Finishing Drives | 58 | 97 | |
| Quality Drives | 34 | 67 | |
UCF Offense vs. BYU Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 2 | 79 | |
| Line Yards | 6 | 84 | |
| Pass Success | 108 | 14 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 56 | |
| Finishing Drives | 103 | 68 | |
| Quality Drives | 54 | 43 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 90 | 64 |
| PFF Coverage | 62 | 33 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 34 | 74 |
| Middle 8 | 13 | 57 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.0 (110) | 24.8 (24) |
| Rush Rate | 53% (56) | 67% (7) |
How to Make College Football Predictions For My BYU vs UCF Pick
UCF’s rushing attack is among the most deadly in the country, and this has been a point of weakness for BYU’s defense this season.
Brown and Harvey should put up strong numbers on the ground against this Cougars defense.
BYU hasn’t been anything particularly special on offense this season. UCF has poor defensive metrics against the pass, but it has faced a tough schedule of passing offenses.
I expect UCF to have a better day against a BYU passing attack that's average at best.
A 3-4 team isn’t typically favored in a conference game over an undefeated opponent, but that's what we have here, as the market is already clued into the intricacies of this matchup.
I think this is a good matchup for UCF, and I would take the Knights to cover -2.5 before it gets to -3. I believe this is where BYU’s undefeated season will end as UCF gets back on track.
Pick: UCF -2.5 (Play to -3)
BYU vs UCF Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 26 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
BYU takes on UCF in Orlando on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
BYU vs UCF Betting Trends
- 76% of bets and 90% of the money are on BYU to cover the spread
- 43% of bets and 91% of the money on the moneyline are on BYU to win outright
- 42% of bets and 88% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
BYU vs UCF Weather
