Cal will be looking for revenge for last year's 14-10 loss in Berkeley when they travel to take on Auburn.
The Golden Bears did not look impressive in their opener against UC Davis despite winning 31-13. They were outgained in the contest and spotted three turnovers. This is Justin Wilcox's eighth year at the school, and he has only gotten Cal to a bowl game three times.
There is much experience back on both sides of the ball, but the Golden Bears will have to play better on Saturday if they want to hang with Auburn.
Hugh Freeze has Auburn set up to eclipse the six wins they had last season. The Tigers destroyed Alabama A&M in the opener 73-3 while putting up over 600 yards of offense. They have a ton of returning production on both sides of the ball. Still, the way last season ended — losing three straight games to New Mexico State, Alabama, and Maryland — left a sour taste. They need an impressive performance on Saturday.
Read on for our Cal vs Auburn Prediction, Expert Pick and College Football Odds for Saturday, September 7.
Cal vs Auburn Prediction
My Cal vs Auburn best bet, pick and preview is on the Golden Bears to cover the two-score spread at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Cal vs Auburn Odds
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Auburn Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 54 -110o / -110u | -425 |
- Cal vs Auburn Point Spread: Cal +10.5 (-110) · Auburn -10.5 (-110)
- Cal vs Auburn Total: Over/Under 54
- Cal vs Auburn Moneyline: Cal +325 · Auburn -425
Cal vs Auburn Preview
California Golden Bears Betting Preview: Offensive Line Play Is Key
If I could describe the Cal offense last season, it would be "average."
Average can be okay if your aspirations are simply to make a bowl game, which is where Cal is at right now. The Bears should improve from last year's ranking of 51st in EPA per Play because they have all their important players back.
Fernando Mendoza won the starting job over North Texas transfer Chandler Rogers, which may not be good. He was a below-average passer last season, averaging only seven yards per attempt, and only had a 68.1 Pro Football Focus passing grade in eight starts. He is someone who desperately needs a clean pocket to be successful. He was pressured on 33.2% of his dropbacks last season and only had a 46.7 Pro Football Focus passing grade on those dropbacks.
The good news for him is Cal brings back 112 starts across their offensive line, so they will likely protect him better.
The biggest key for the Cal offense is the run game behind Jaydn Ott. Ott was named First-Team All-Pac 12 last season and averaged 5.3 yards per carry with 12 touchdowns. With Ott at runningback, Cal finished 21st in EPA per Rush, and the offensive line finished 13th in line yards.
However, the Bears must run the ball better than they did against Auburn last season.
The Golden Bears bring back eight starters on defense from last year's stop unit, but they desperately need to improve against the pass. They were in a pass-happy league in the Pac-12, but they should fare better in the ACC. They completely shut down Payton Thorne in this head-to-head matchup last season, holding him to under 100 yards passing. The defensive front also held Auburn to only 3.6 yards per carry.
Auburn Tigers Betting Preview: First Real Test With In A New Defensive Scheme
Hugh Freeze made some coaching changes this season, bringing in new coordinators on both sides of the ball.
He brought in Derrick Nix, a longtime Ole Miss assistant. Freeze will still call plays and control the offense, which means you will continue to see a lot of zone-read with Payton Thorne and Jarquez Hunter.
The rushing attack was effective last season, ranking 18th in Rush Success Rate. Hunter averaged 5.7 yards per carry, and Thorne accumulated over 500 yards on zone reads.
However, Thorne and Hunter were shut down in this matchup last year. It was only the second game with Freeze as head coach, but Thorne only had 11 yards on eight attempts, and Hunter could only amass 59 rushing yards.
The biggest question with Auburn's offense is whether the Tigers can be effective when forced into passing situations. Thorne was a below-average passer last season, averaging only 6.6 yards per attempt. He had a 64.3 Pro Football Focus passing grade with 13 turnover-worthy plays compared to 14 big-time throws. Over 60% of his pass attempts came under 10 yards last season, and the way to beat Cal's defense is by throwing balls over the top, with the Golden Bears ranking 121st in Pass Explosiveness allowed.
Auburn returns eight starters from a very average 2023 defense. They added some Power 4 transfers on the defensive front, attempting to shore up the run defense. The Tigers were consistently beaten in short-yardage late-down situations, ranking 124th in Power Success Rate allowed — that doesn't bode well against Ott.
The Tigers are introducing a new defensive coordinator, DJ Durkin, who had great success with Texas A&M last season. Still, this is Auburn's first real test of a new defensive scheme.
Cal vs Auburn Pick & Prediction
This matchup was an incredibly sloppy game last year in Berkeley, with only three offensive touchdowns. Both rush-heavy offenses couldn't get things going on the ground.
Two big question marks in this game need to be answered.
First, can Auburn be as effective as last year in defending Cal's rushing attack?
Shutting down lowly Alabama A&M is great, but shutting down Jaydn Ott is another thing. Cal has greatly improved its offensive line by bringing in two high-value transfers, so the Golden Bears could run the ball with great success.
Second, can either of these quarterbacks be effective when forced into passing situations? Mendoza needs to be protected, and Thorne proved last year that he's not a great passer, which is what you need to beat Cal's weak secondary.
Ultimately, I think the number is a tad too high for Auburn.
Wilcox is great as an underdog, going 28-15 ATS.
Cal vs Auburn Prediction: Cal +13.5 or better
How to Watch Cal vs Auburn Live: Start Time, TV Channel, Location
| Location: | Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 7 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Cal vs Auburn Betting Trends
- Cal is 1-0 SU but 0-1 ATS on the season after beating UC Davis 31-31 as 20.5-point favorites in Week 1.
- Auburn is 1-0 SU and 1-0 ATS on the year after beating Alabama A&M 73-3 as 48.5-point favorites in Week 1.
- Cal is 14-11 ATS as a road underdog over the past five seasons dating back to the beginning of 2019.
