The 5-0 Miami Hurricanes take on the 3-1 California Golden Bears in a late-night clash to cap College Football Week 6 Saturday. Cal vs. Miami is live tonight on ESPN at 10:30 p.m. ET, streaming on YouTube TV, ESPN+ and other streaming platforms.
Miami is currently a consensus 10-point favorite on the spread (Miami -10) and a -385 favorite on the moneyline, with Cal +305 to upset the Hurricanes on the Golden Bears' home turf. The over/under is 54 points scored.
After dominating its first four games, Miami (5-0) got all it could handle from Virginia Tech in its ACC opener. The Hurricanes survived with a 38-34 victory to improve to 5-0 but fell a spot to No. 8 in the AP Top 25. Next, it will travel cross-country to take the California Golden Bears (3-1).
Cal began the year 3-0, which included a victory at Auburn, 21-14. Now, it's coming off a loss in its first-ever ACC game at Florida State by the score of 14-9. However, coming off a bye week, both the team and fans will be amped up.
So let's get to my Cal vs. Miami predictions with college football picks for a same-game parlay in this week's College GameDay game of the week.
Cal vs. Miami Odds, Picks
| Miami (FL) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 54 -108o / -112u | -395 |
| California Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 54 -108o / -112u | +310 |
- Cal vs. Miami spread: Miami -10
- Cal vs. Miami over/under: 54 points
- Cal vs. Miami moneyline: Miami -385, Cal +305
- Cal vs. Miami picks: Miami to cover the spread; Cam Ward, Jaydn Ott player props
For tonight's Miami vs. Cal picks on my SGP, I'm including the Hurricanes to cover the spread, but we're going to take a slightly juiced Miami -9.5 instead of the -10.
Cal vs. Miami Prediction
- Miami to cover the spread (-9.5 at -132)
- Cam Ward 300+ Passing Yards (-125)
- Cam Ward 3+ Touchdown Passes (+110)
- Jaydn Ott 60+ Rushing Yards (-192)
Parlay Odds: +556 via FanDuel
Please always remember to bet responsibly. SGPs are long shots for a reason.
For even more expert analysis on this late-night marquee matchup, I highly suggest checking out Collin Wilson's expert analysis in his Miami vs. California Prediction, Picks, and Best Bet Tonight.
Pick Against the Spread
Miami -9.5 (-132)
Last week, Miami was a 17.5-point favorite against Virginia Tech, and it was a number that I did not have a great deal of interest in. Entering the season, Miami was a 7.5 to 8.5-point on the look-ahead line.
Virginia Tech had played below its preseason expectations, while Miami got off to a blistering start.
With it being one of two games played on a Friday night, the national audience got to see Miami play its worst game of the season.
As a result, I believe that has a bit of an overreaction as Miami opened as a 14-point favorite and the number has come down quite a bit. However, Cal does not match up nearly as well as the Hokies did.
In Byrum Brown and Kyron Drones, Miami has faced a dual-threat quarterback in each of the last two weeks. Dual-threat quarterbacks are a headache for everyone and Drones accounted for 241 total yards and two touchdowns last week. Miami will not have to worry about that this week.
Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza is a pocket passer playing behind a below-average offensive line. Cal is 114th in havoc allowed and Miami is sixth in havoc.
I mentioned Miami's pass rush above and it has been able to get home with Rueben Bain Jr., the reigning ACC Defensive Player of the Year, sidelined since the Florida game. Adding Bain back to Tyler Baron, Akheem Mesidor, and Co. will make Miami's pass rush even more dangerous.
Mendoza, a Miami native, will be motivated to beat his hometown team, but Cal doesn't generate explosive plays, ranked 114th in explosiveness.
It is still waiting on the debut of coveted transfer wide receivers Tobias Merriweather (Notre Dame) and Kyion Grayes (Ohio State). To this point, Cal is averaging just 23 points per game and 15 against Power Four opponents.
Its defense has been solid in creating havoc (53rd), but Miami will have an edge there, too, as it is ninth in havoc allowed.
Miami's dual-threat quarterback has been a handful for opponents this season and Ward is familiar with Cal head coach Justin Wilcox's defense. Miami head coach Mario Cristobal was 3-1 vs. Wilcox while at Oregon, with two of those wins being by double digits.
This will be Miami's first game outside of the state of Florida, but it did go on the road to beat South Florida 50-15. If we get three touchdown passes from Ward, I would expect Miami to add another touchdown or two on the ground.
With the advantages it has over Cal's offense, Miami will likely win comfortably if it scores north of 28 points.
Miami Prop Picks
Cam Ward: 300+ Passing Yards (-125) + 3 TD Passes (+110)
While Cal may be new to the ACC, it is not new to Cam Ward. While at Washington State, Ward has played Cal in each of the last two years. In 2022, he threw for 343 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Golden Bears and followed that up with 354 yards and three touchdowns last year.
If Ward throwing for 300 yards and three touchdowns sounds familiar, it is because he has done it in every game this season. Ward leads the FBS with 18 touchdowns and is also second in passing yards (1,782) and QBR.
This year's Cal defense enters with impressive numbers on paper, allowing 12.8 points and 182.7 passing yards per game. However, it's faced UC Davis and San Diego State, along with two anemic Power Four offenses in Auburn and Florida State. Miami will not only be the best offense that Cal has played thus far, but it has also leaned into playing through its quarterback.
Ward is averaging 32.2 pass attempts per game and 11.1 yards per attempt, with 38 attempts last week. If he throws the ball 30+ times this week, he likely makes it six consecutive games with 300 yards and three touchdown passes.
Cal Prop Picks
Jaydn Ott: 60+ Rushing Yards (-192)
Over the last two years, Jaydn Ott has run for over 2,000 yards and 20 touchdowns. However, he has gotten off to a slow start, averaging 3.3 yards per carry.
He did suffer an injury in the opener and missed the SDSU game, but he returned for the Florida State game and ran for 73 yards on 16 carries. He is listed as questionable this week, but coming off a bye, I would expect him to go and he should find success in this matchup.
On paper, Miami's run defense looks formidable, as it's allowing 93 rushing yards per carry on 3.4 yards per carry. However, keep in mind that Miami has 18 sacks for a net 112 yards.
Florida's Montrell Johnson and Virginia Tech's Bhayshul Tuten each went over 100 yards against Miami and popped off an explosive run. Miami's defense is 74th in rushing success rate and 124th in rushing explosiveness. It has already allowed nine runs of 15 runs or more.
When Ott is right, he is one of the most explosive backs in the country. He had a 15+ yard run in eight of 12 games last season and five 100-yard games as well.
Given that I am expecting a negative game script for Cal, I'm going with 60 yards for him here. However, the Golden Bears will likely want to pound the rock to keep Miami's offense off the field.
