The Pittsburgh Panthers (5-0) look to remain undefeated when they host the California Golden Bears (3-2) at home.
California is going to have pick itself off the mat after a deflating loss to Miami (FL) on Saturday. The Golden Bears led 38-18 in the fourth quarter before giving up three straight touchdowns to lose, 39-38. That's now two straight losses to open up ACC play, so Cal will be desperate to get things back on the right track on Saturday.
Pittsburgh notched a 34-24 victory over North Carolina to win its opening game in ACC play. The Panthers' offense has been clicking on all cylinders so far this season, and with their great start, they've cracked the top 25.
However, they've been a bit fortunate to be undefeated after overcoming multiple double-digit, fourth-quarter deficits.
The Panthers are favored by 3.5 points on the spread and -165 on the moneyline in this game. Also, the total is set for 58.5 points.
Here's my Cal vs. Pitt predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Cal Golden Bears vs Pitt Panthers Prediction
- Cal vs Pitt Pick: Cal +3.5
My Pitt vs Cal best bet is on the Golden Bears spread, with the best line currently available at BetMGM, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Cal vs Pitt Odds, Spread, Line
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 58 -110o / -110u | +143 |
| Pitt Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 58 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- Cal vs Pitt Spread: Pitt -3.5
- Cal vs Pitt Over/Under: 58.5 Points
- Cal vs Pitt Moneyline: Cal ML +143 · Pitt ML -170
Cal Football vs Pitt Football Preview
Cal Golden Bears Betting Preview: Rushing Attack Needs to be Consistent
For Cal to win this game, it's going to come down to its quarterback Fernando Mendoza. He's been pretty effective as a passer this season, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt with a 73.7% adjusted completion percentage.
He's a really good deep-ball passer, posting a 91.7 PFF passing grade on throws over 20+ yards in the air. On those throws, he's 8-for-18 for 254 yards, and three of those 10 incompletions were drops by his receivers.
The Cal rushing attack has been hit or miss this season. Jaydn Ott was its star back coming into the season, but he's been battling injuries and really hasn't been that effective.
Jaivian Thomas now leads the Bears in carries and has been, by far, the more productive runner, averaging 6.4 yards per carry.
Ott left the game against Miami, but is probable to play in this game, which will give Cal a big boost.
The strength of the Cal defense is without a doubt in its secondary. Cam Ward may have thrown for 437 yards against the Bears, but they forced him into three turnover-worthy plays, with one of them being a pick six.
The Golden Bears are 29th in the nation in EPA/Pass allowed and are allowing only 6.7 yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Where Cal really is going to have success is putting pressure on Eli Holstein. The Golden Bears are top-50 in both Havoc and PFF pass rushing grade, which will be huge if Desmond Reid isn't available and all the pressure is on Holstein to throw the ball.
Pittsburgh Panthers Betting Preview: Overrated Offense?
The Panthers' offensive numbers look really good right now, but that's because they put up 52 points against Kent State in the first game of the season and 71 points against Youngstown State.
They moved the ball well against a bad North Carolina defense last weekend, but this is going to be a very difficult test.
Holstein has been racking up yards and touchdown passes, but he's due for a bad game. Overall, for the season, he only has a 63.9 PFF passing grade, and the main reason for that is he throws the ball up for grabs far too often.
So far through five games, he has nine turnover-worthy plays compared to eight big-time throws, per PFF.
If you can get pressure on him, Holstein's effectiveness goes way down. As you can see below, his yards per attempt and adjusted completion percentage drop pretty significantly.
Pitt running back Reid has been effective on the ground for the most part this season, but he's been shut down in three of his last four games. Against West Virginia and North Carolina, he's been held to a total of 57 rushing yards and is averaging under 2.5 yards per carry.
He was effective, though, as a pass catcher in their last game, going for over 100 yards on 11 catches against North Carolina.
The bad news is Reid is questionable to play in this game, which means there will be a lot of pressure on Holstein.
The way to beat Pittsburgh is through the air. The Panthers really haven't faced many good quarterbacks this season and are still 94th in EPA/Pass allowed.
The defensive rushing metrics look good, but in their three biggest games against West Virginia, Cincinnati, and North Carolina, they've allowed well over four yards per carry.
They also didn't do an effective job of stopping Omarion Hampton, who went for over 100 yards last Saturday.
How to Bet My Cal vs Pitt Pick
In my opinion, Pittsburgh is a tremendously overrated 5-0 team. If it weren't for double-digit, fourth-quarter comebacks against Cincinnati and West Virginia, it would be sitting at 3-2, with two of those wins coming against Kent State and Youngstown State.
I understand that Cal has to travel across the country, but if the Panthers didn't come back in both of those games, what do you think the line would be?
Cal's defense should be able to put pressure on Holstein, which will be huge given how much he's struggled with a crowded pocket this season.
The Golden Bears have picked off opposing quarterbacks 11 times this season, and with how many turnover-worthy plays Holstein has, I like the value on him to throw a pick at -135, along with the pick below.
I have this game projected right at a pick'em, so I like the value on the Golden Bears at +3.5 because it's never a bad idea to back Justin Wilcox as a 'dog.
Pick: Cal +3.5 | Eli Holstein to Throw an INT (-135 via bet365)
Cal vs Pitt Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
Pitt vs Cal Betting Trends
- 80% of the bets are on Pitt while 78% of the money is on the same side of the spread.
- 59% of the bets are on the over while 52% of the money is on the same side of the total.
Cal vs Pitt Weather
