Week 12 brings us a matchup in the MAC between the Central Michigan Chippewas (3-6, 1-4 MAC) and Toledo Rockets (6-3, 3-2) at the Glass Bowl. Tuesday's kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Central Michigan enters this one desperate for a win after dropping 4 straight. Toledo, meanwhile, looks to carry some momentum into this one after a narrow 29-28 win at Eastern Michigan a week ago.
The Rockets enter this one as sizable -14.5 favorites with an over/under of 51.5. Toledo has won three of the last five matches with the Chippewas by double digits. Can it add another this year?
Let's take a look at my Central Michigan vs. Toledo predictions and college football picks for the MACtion games on Tuesday, Nov. 12.
Central Michigan vs. Toledo Prediction, Picks
- Central Michigan vs. Toledo Pick: Toledo -14.5
My Toledo vs. Central Michigan best bet is on the Rockets to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at Caesars, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Central Michigan Football vs. Toledo Football Odds and Spread
| Central Michigan Chippeawas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | +450 |
| Toledo Rockets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 51.5 -115o / -105u | -650 |
- Central Michigan vs. Toledo Spread: Toledo -14.5, Central Michigan +14.5
- Central Michigan vs. Toledo Over/Under: 51.5
- Central Michigan vs. Toledo Moneyline: Toledo ML -650, Central Michigan ML +450
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Toledo Rockets Week 12 Preview
Central Michigan Chippewas
Central Michigan head coach Jim McElwain is in his sixth season up in Mount Pleasant, and he has had some decent success over the years. McElwain started off hot with two winning seasons in his first three years, but he has not carried that success in recent years.
He will need to start accumulating some wins, as his job may be in question if these trends continue.
Junior quarterback Joe Labas led the offense to start the year, but after suffering a season-ending injury, the team has been bouncing between Tyler Jefferson, Jadyn Glasser and Bert Emanuel Jr. to solve its quarterback problem.
Jefferson had been the guy they trusted, but after going 1-for-6 last week, McElwain decided to give Glasser a crack at it. He performed better, going 5-for-7 for 57 yards while also racking up 10 rushing yards.
While the quarterback position is undoubtedly the most important spot on every team, the most impactful player has been running back Marion Lukes. With Lukes leading the way, the Chips game ranks 29th in Rush Success Rate.
Central Michigan should look to lean into Lukes with the questions at quarterback despite McElwain’s normal heavy-pass attack.
The Chippewas defense has been pretty average this season. They allow 31 points per game with a lot of points being scored on explosives. Central Michigan’s defense ranks 128th in Explosiveness allowed, which is one of the worst marks in the country.
This defense defends the run better, ranking 73rd in Rush Success Rate allowed as opposed to 94th in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Central Michigan plays a very aggressive defense that can cause problems if the opposing offense isn't properly prepared. The Chips rank sixth in Havoc, which can slow offenses, especially early in the game.
They will need to disrupt this Toledo offense all game if they want to win this one.
Toledo Rockets
Toledo head coach Jason Candle is in his 10th season in Toledo and has had a lot of success coaching the Rockets. He has had a winning record in all but one season, and this year is shaping up to be another one.
Quarterback Tucker Gleason paces this efficient offense that averages 29 points per game. The Rockets do everything well offensively. They rank 60th in Rush Success Rate and 30th in Pass Success Rate.
They can really light up the scoreboard if the defense can't stop Gleason and the passing attack. Toledo takes the top off the defense, ranking 18th in Pass Explosiveness.
The Rockets do look for balance and try to run the ball to set up the pass game, as they rank 36th in Rush Rate. I wouldn't expect problems scoring in this game, whether it comes on the ground or through the air.
Toledo’s defense has been pretty solid as well, allowing just over 22 points per game.
The Rockets are very effective against the run, where they rank 61st in Rush Success Rate allowed and 32nd in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
Toledo struggles a bit more against the pass, ranking rank 70th in Pass Success Rate allowed. However, the Rockets should do a decent job against both of CMU's quarterbacks as the Chips try to figure out who their best option is.
Toledo vs. Central Michigan Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Central Michigan match up statistically:
Central Michigan Offense vs. Toledo Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 71 | 40 | |
| Line Yards | 31 | 68 | |
| Pass Success | 118 | 64 | |
| Havoc | 88 | 31 | |
| Finishing Drives | 62 | 65 |  |
| Quality Drives | 73 | 50 | |
Toledo Offense vs. Central Michigan Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 114 | 69 | |
| Line Yards | 103 | 83 | |
| Pass Success | 48 | 99 | |
| Havoc | 52 | 35 | |
| Finishing Drives | 87 | 50 | |
| Quality Drives | 120 | 120 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 56 | 9 |
| PFF Coverage | 108 | 17 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 71 | 84 |
| Middle 8 | 91 | 34 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.5 (73) | 24.2 (17) |
| Rush Rate | 59% (39) | 50% (94) |
How to Make My Central Michigan vs. Toledo Picks
Toledo should put up points in this one against a much weaker defense, and it's hard for me to see Central Michigan finding much offense.
The Chippewas’ best player at the moment is their running back, and the strength of this Toledo defense is their run defense.
The way to beat Toledo is through the air, but I haven't seen enough from CMU's backup quarterbacks to trust them in this one.
I'll be playing Toledo as the favorite and taking the Rockets at -16 or better in this Tuesday night matchup.
Pick: Toledo -14.5 (Play to -16)
Central Michigan vs. Toledo Start Time, How to Watch, Channel, Streaming
| Location: | Glass Bowl, Toledo, OH |
| Date: | Tuesday, Nov. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 7 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPNU |
Central Michigan heads to the Glass Bowl on Tuesday, Nov. 12 to face Toledo at 7 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Central Michigan vs. Toledo Betting Trends
- 81% of bets and 73% of the money are on Toledo to cover the spread
- 91% of bets and 63% of the money on the moneyline are on Toledo to win outright
- 87% of bets and 85% of the money are on the over
Betting trends via our live, updating NCAAF public betting & money percentages page.
Central Michigan vs. Toledo Weather
