It hasn't been much of a factor off the heels of a hot August, but weather, especially for college football teams up north, will become a significant variable heading forward.
The Week 4 board has seen an increase in wind, the single-most-important catalyst when betting football.
As the league emphasizes throwing and passing volume skyrockets, big gusts suppress big plays and points altogether. The proof's in the pudding.
The Action Network’s Windy Unders PRO Betting System has posted a roughly 57% win clip since 2005, a sample including more than 1,000 games.
These are the games Mother Nature should have her fingerprints all over this weekend.
Central Michigan vs. Florida International
12 p.m. ET | ESPN+
- Wind speeds: 14.2 mph
- Opening over/under: 54.5
- Current over/under: 55.5
Three defenses that have yet to allow an explosive rush this season: Georgia, Wyoming … and Florida International?
I figured with their previous games being against Texas Tech and Texas State, the two opponents aired it out and skewed the numbers; I was flat-out wrong.
The Golden Panthers have defended 80+ combined rushes the last two weeks, surrendering not a single explosive play. That's impressive, and it becomes critical in a game featuring winds shading near 15 MPH.
Sharps pushed this spread up from CMU -10 to -11.5. Frankly, there's some value with the 'dog against a Central Michigan offense ranking 16th in the country in pass-play percentage (58.8%).
Western Michigan vs. San Jose State
2 p.m. ET | ESPN+
- Wind speeds: 16 mph
- Opening over/under: 63
- Current over/under: 62
San Jose State's already in a tough spot, traveling from the West Coast to Michigan for what'll be a relatively early start.
Add in 16 MPH winds for a San Jose State offense third in the country in pass-play frequency (68.7%), and it becomes that much more challenging.
Gusts may have been more significant for last year's version of Western Michigan starting quarterback Kaleb Eleby, who posted a gaudy 11.5 yards per attempt. However, he's down to a tame 7.5 yards per clip in 2021.
Michigan vs. Rutgers
3:30 p.m. ET | ABC
- Wind speeds: 14 mph
- Opening over/under: 53
- Current over/under: 50
The Big House will be packed with more than 100,000 fans for a windy afternoon in Ann Arbor. Michigan head coach Jim Harbaugh might be content with the conditions.
His rushing attack's second in the country in yards per carry (7.2), totaling 15 total touchdowns on the ground through three games.
Rutgers may not have to worry about defending the deep third of the field – a plus, since the secondary's down starting cornerback Max Melton.
Purdue vs. Illinois
3:30 p.m. ET | BTN
- Wind speeds: 12 mph
- Opening over/under: 55
- Current over/under: 53
Purdue and Illinois have gone under the total in four consecutive meetings. Will wind in Saturday's forecast make it five straight?
Illinois' offense has gone backward despite greasing the wheels with a Week 0 game. The unit is barely surpassing 350 yards per game this season, coming off of a home loss to Maryland in which it picked up just 336 yards.
The Boilermakers, meanwhile, are 3-0 to the under in 2021, missing the closing total by at least eight points in all three.
