Week 11 NCAAF Situational Spots ⋅ Saturday Afternoon & Evening
Just like I've done throughout the college football season, I will share my favorite spots for this week's college football games.
Last week's nine spots finished 5-4 with two painful losses on UAB in overtime and Memphis and two awful calls on James Madison and Charlotte (yikes). That brings the four-week running tally to 27-7.
Hopefully, we can keep it rolling, but there will always be rough weeks in this gig, so please wager responsibly.
Ultimately, the actual spread value still reigns supreme. No matter how great a situational spot appears on paper, you still have to factor in how much value the number holds. A good or bad spot may sway me one way or the other on a bet I'm on the fence for, but it's certainly more art than science.
I have highlighted 10 games this week — five that kick off at noon ET, and five more that kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET or later.
This particular article focuses on Saturday's afternoon and evening kickoffs (3:30 p.m. ET or later). Click the article linked below for the five games that I have circled at noon ET.
Tulane -2 vs. UCF
I'm not sure when Tulane will get the respect it deserves in the betting market, but the Green Wave have done nothing but cash for their backers all season. They're the nation's most profitable team with an 8-1 ATS record heading into Week 11, covering by just under a touchdown per game.
They will try to get to the window once again against an UCF club that's fresh off back-to-back hard-fought wins over Cincinnati and Memphis. However, I watched both, and the Knights easily could've lost both.
Last week, Memphis continued to shoot itself in the foot with self-inflicted wounds, including an asinine decision to go for it on fourth-and-16 near midfield following a very questionable game-changing targeting call.
Speaking of good fortune, UCF opponents have converted just 6-of-21 fourth-down attempts (28.6%) and scored on an FBS-low 61.1% of red-zone trips.
The Knight defense undoubtedly deserves some of the credit, but they've also benefited from a number of lucky bounces. Regression certainly looms in both departments.
When facing the dynamic UCF RPO offense, defenses don't have a shot unless they can stop the run. Schematically, that's exactly what Tulane looks to do as a unit that ranks in the top 25 nationally in yards per rush allowed.
Its front clogs the middle of the field, allowing its tremendous linebackers to flow freely to the outside where everything gets funneled. Strong cover cornerbacks also provide Tulane with plenty of flexibility in play-calling. You'll see a high frequency of simulated pressures to confuse opposing quarterbacks.
Nick Anderson and Dorian Williams lead the best linebacker corps in the conference. Throw in the run-stopping ability of stud safety Larry Brooks, and this unit has the prowess to contain this explosive UCF offense, regardless of whether John Rhys Plumlee or Mikey Keene (or both) gets the nod at center.
On the other side of the ball, Tulane's offense has struggled the most in pass protection, ranking outside the top 100 in Sack Rate. That may not be as much of a hindrance against a UCF defense that ranks 95th in that same statistic.
With a clean pocket, quarterback Michael Pratt can carve up a vulnerable UCF secondary.
In what I expect to be a very competitive, hard-fought game, I'll take the team I have power-rated higher laying under a field goal.
Notable Nugget
Since head coach Willie Fritz arrived at Tulane in 2016, the Green Wave have the nation's most profitable team to back at home. Over that span, they've gone a ridiculous 26-11 ATS (70.3%) in the friendly confines, covering by over five points per game.
Mississippi State +17 vs. Georgia
What a performance by Georgia last week against Tennessee in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated.
However, that begs a question: Where was that defensive effort all year? The Bulldogs have certainly had stretches where they didn't look that dominant against much inferior offenses.
Could it be boredom for the defending national champs? It's certainly possible. Maybe that comes into play again this week in what sets up as a miserable situational spot after that emotional win over the Vols to essentially lock up the division.
Can Mississippi State find success on offense against Georgia?
Well, after getting blanked by Alabama two years ago, the Bulldogs almost pulled off a stunning upset as 26.5-point underdogs in Athens in a seven-point loss. In only his second career start, quarterback Will Rogers finished 41-of-52 for 336 yards.
Rogers has improved significantly since and can once again find success by moving the ball with a quick, short-passing attack that neutralizes Georgia's defensive strengths. It's actually a decent schematic matchup.
Additionally, Mississippi State has had one of the best red-zone offenses in the country, scoring 23 touchdowns on 27 trips inside the 20. That's critical against a stingy Georgia defense that almost never allows touchdowns when teams get into scoring range.
Mike Leach's Bulldogs also have excelled in the red zone on defense. Holding a Georgia offense to field goals instead of touchdowns could ultimately decide this cover, especially when UGA has stalled at times inside the 20.
Plus, this will be Stetson Bennett's biggest test when he drops back to pass. Georgia's two toughest opponents this season, Tennessee and Oregon, have extremely poor secondaries.
Lastly, it doesn't hurt that Mississippi State plays at a very methodical pace, unlike Tennessee, which should limit the number of possessions. That always favors the large underdog.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Leach is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) as an underdog of more than 14 points. That makes him the most profitable coach of 358 in that scenario over that span. Excluding Alabama, which has his number, that record improves to 16-4 (80%).
Washington +13.5 vs. Oregon
This is probably the peak of the market for the Ducks after five straight covers.
The elite Oregon offense should absolutely roast a very poor Washington defense.
However, there's no reason why an excellent Washington offense can't keep up against a very vulnerable Oregon defense in a battle of two defenses that rank in the bottom 10 of all Power Five defenses in Adjusted EPA per Play.
Plus, Washington throws it as much as any team in the country, which sets up well in this particular matchup. The Oregon defense actually sports respectable numbers against the run but ranks in the bottom 10 in FBS in numerous pass defense categories.
Huskies quarterback Michael Penix Jr. should have a field day, especially considering the Ducks aren't generating pressure. For the season, they rank 128th in Passing Downs Sack Rate.
I'm personally waiting to see if a +14 pops before playing the Huskies in what should be a high-scoring affair.
Notable Nugget
Since 2004, Oregon has dominated this series with a 14-2 straight-up record. Over that stretch, the Ducks have gone 12-0-1 ATS as a favorite, covering by approximately a touchdown per game.
Texas -7 vs. TCU
Is this the week TCU finally has to face a healthy starting quarterback for an entire game?
After knocking out the starting quarterbacks for Oklahoma, Kansas State (and the backup), Kansas and coming back against an injured Spencer Sanders and Oklahoma State, the Horned Frogs somehow amazingly did it again last week against Texas Tech.
After Behren Morton got off to a hot start, he left the game with an injury in the first half, paving the way for Tyler Shough to take over under center. The results were disastrous, as Shough still isn't fully recovered or comfortable since returning from injury.
- Morton: 7-of-10, 79 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (7.9 YPA)
- Shough: 9-of-22, 78 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT (3.5 YPA)
Amazingly, TCU has still needed a few miracles to cover in those games, and its defense grades out poorly despite facing more backup quarterbacks than any team in the country. Those opponents also aren't necessarily known for their defensive prowess.
Without that good fortune, I shudder to think what the defensive numbers would look like.
Fortunately for Texas, it has a very competent backup quarterback in Hudson Card if it comes to that again. Card actually has better overall numbers than Quinn Ewers in many aspects.
Regardless of who plays under center, Texas should absolutely shred this Horned Frog stop unit with explosive passing plays through the air and on the ground with the nation's best running back in Bijan Robinson.
On the other side of the ball, don't expect TCU to find much success on the ground against a very stingy Texas run defense. It should have success through the air against a Longhorn secondary that has holes, especially since Texas doesn't generate much pressure.
However, TCU's best player on offense, wide receiver Quentin Johnston, may not be at 100% after suffering an ankle injury last Saturday. He's arguably the best wideout in the country. Plus, Gary Patterson, now a Texas assistant, knows Max Duggan as well as anyone.
This will also mark the Horned Frogs' toughest road test by a country mile, having only faced West Virginia and Kansas away from home in league play in two tightly-contested victories.
While TCU has needed every break, bounce and injury to stay undefeated, Texas has had the opposite luck. With a few bounces, the Horns could easily be undefeated and sitting in the top four of the College Football Playoff rankings.
They've had trouble closing out games, but I think they can build on last week's victory at Kansas State and finally relax with a late lead.
The luck finally runs out for TCU, and Texas pulls away late.
Notable Nugget
In the months of November and December since 2005, undefeated teams have gone just 5-12 ATS (29.4%) as touchdown-plus underdogs away from home. Tennessee became the latest victim just last week.
Auburn -2 vs. Texas A&M
Another week, another Texas A&M fade.
Once again, I just don't know where this Aggies team is at mentally after five straight losses with all of its preseason goals long gone. A&M still only has two victories over FBS teams this year:
- Miami: This victory looks much worse than it did at the time. Plus, Miami actually had the better statistical day (392-264 yards) but just shot itself in the foot too many times.
- Arkansas: The Aggies should've lost if not for a fluky 99-yard fumble return and a missed game-winning field goal attempt from Arkansas.
Multiple incidents of player suspensions are not great signs for the state of the locker room.
The Aggies also lost a number of key contributors to injury, including their most dangerous receiver and multiple offensive linemen. On top of that, they recently dealt with a major flu outbreak, which could have lingering effects this week.
Meanwhile, I loved what I saw from Auburn last week in the debut of interim coach Cadillac Williams. The Tigers had a completely different energy from start to finish, feeding off Williams living and dying with every play on the sidelines. The staff also had to deal with a short week of preparation in new roles with a playbook they didn't have much familiarity with. They should be much better prepared this week.
I think that continues for the rest of the season for this rejuvenated locker room that clearly had issues with former head coach Bryan Harsin.
Additionally, this also sets up as a great matchup for the Auburn offense, which needs to have success on the ground in order to sustain drives. Well, that shouldn't be an issue against a bad Texas A&M run defense.
The Aggies rank outside the top 75 in Rush Success Rate and EPA per Rush. Their highly-touted but inexperienced front ranks 97th in Standard Down Line Yards and 121st in Passing Downs Sack Rate. That's a troubling combination.
Last week, Florida became the latest team to gash the Aggies on the ground, rushing for over 300 yards with an average of 6.5 yards per clip. Even Miami had success running against Texas A&M, averaging 4.9 yards per carry. Against all other FBS teams, the Canes have averaged 3.1 yards per carry.
I'll take the re-energized home team laying a short price in a decent matchup against a lifeless road team. The loss of starting right tackle Austin Troxell does hurt a bit, but you can still bet on a heavy dose of Jarquez Hunter and Tank Bigsby, who should run wild against the Aggies.
The Tigers also likely have more positive turnover regression coming their way to end the season.
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Auburn is the most-profitable short home favorite (3.5 or less) in conference games at 7-1 ATS, covering by over a touchdown per game. Also, underdogs on five- or six-game losing streaks are just 104-145-3 (41.8%) since 2005.
