Charlotte vs USF Odds, Prediction, Pick: Bulls Hold Key Edge (Saturday, Nov. 25)

Charlotte vs USF Odds, Prediction, Pick: Bulls Hold Key Edge (Saturday, Nov. 25) article feature image
Credit:

Williams Paul/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: USF’s Byrum Brown.

Charlotte vs USF Odds

Charlotte Logo
Saturday, Nov. 25
7:30 p.m. ET
ESPNU
USF Logo
Charlotte Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+7
-110
57
-110o / -110u
+225
USF Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-7
-110
57
-110o / -110u
-275
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.
BetMGM Logo

Two first-year head coaches will look to finish the regular season strong, but only one has a chance to earn a bowl bid.

Biff Poggi face a difficult rebuild in Charlotte and was expected to need a few years. The 49ers are 3-8 and have an improved defense, but a bowl appearance was always going to be a tough ask.

Meanwhile, Alex Golesh has done a tremendous job at South Florida and has the Bulls just one win away from earning bowl eligibility for the first time since 2018.

The Bulls will certainly be motivated to go to a bowl, so let's look at the odds and make a Charlotte vs. USF Odds, Prediction, Pick.


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Charlotte 49ers

Last season, Charlotte's offense had some upside, but its defense was dreadful. This season, that has flipped. The 49ers rank 129th in the country in Offensive Success Rate and average just 17.8 points per game.

Quarterback Jalon Jones has been dealing with an injury over the past three weeks, leaving sophomore Trexler Ivey under center. Ivey is a better passer but has just four touchdowns (and eight interceptions) through the air.

What Ivey doesn't have is Jones' rushing upside. For an offense that struggles to move the ball, Jones' rushing ability has been Charlotte's best weapon as he's also the team's leading rusher.

After sporting one of the worst defenses in the country last year, the 49ers took a big step forward under Poggi and rank 44th in Success Rate.

They have been especially strong against the pass, allowing just 203 passing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have thrown 10 interceptions and just 15 touchdown passes against the 49ers. Cornerback Dontae Balfour has been the best player on the defense and leads the team with 11 passes broken up.


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South Florida Bulls

Redshirt freshman Byrum Brown has taken South Florida's offense to the next level with his big play ability.

He has thrown 19 touchdown passes this season and is averaging 256.8 yards per game through the air. But where he really has killed defenses is with his legs.

The dual-threat quarterback leads the Bulls with 10 rushing touchdowns and averages 63.8 rushing yards per game. Brown ranks third in the country in rushing among all quarterbacks, but his 681 yards after contact and 46 missed tackles forced both lead all signal callers.

Sheesh @byrumbrown17[!

📺: ESPN2#ComeToTheBay | #StayInTheBaypic.twitter.com/ekSxNqlQWr

— USF Football (@USFFootball) October 7, 2023


Brown is joined in the backfield by running back Nay’Quan Wright. The former Florida Gator is averaging 68.8 yards per game with seven scores.

When Brown does throw the ball, slot receiver Sean Atkins is his top target, ranking second in the conference with 81 receptions for 915 yards. Both are USF single-season records.

Defensively, South Florida has been the opposite of bend, but don’t break. The Bulls rank 57th in Rushing Success Rate but are 133rd at preventing explosiveness.

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Charlotte vs USF

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Charlotte and USF match up statistically:

Charlotte Offense vs. USF Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success12853
Line Yards10734
Pass Success124123
Havoc12839
Finishing Drives12897
Quality Drives115103
USF Offense vs. Charlotte Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success11247
Line Yards10053
Pass Success8968
Havoc95122
Finishing Drives10186
Quality Drives8592
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling86121
PFF Coverage33126
Special Teams SP+12596
Middle 8117122
Seconds per Play29.3 (110)21.4 (2)
Rush Rate58.6% (37)56.5% (52)

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Charlotte vs USF

Betting Pick & Prediction

South Florida is sitting on five wins and has a chance to reach a bowl game in its first season under Golesh. The Bulls have played in many high-scoring games, losing to Western Kentucky, Alabama, UAB, FAU, Memphis and UTSA.

Those teams all have above-average offenses and talent at the offensive skill positions, Charlotte does not.

The 49ers offense ranks 129th in Success Rate on offense and 128th at Finishing Drives. South Florida’s biggest weakness has been preventing big plays, but Charlotte is without its most explosive weapon.

Charlotte has also been vulnerable to giving up the big play, and South Florida is well-equipped to take advantage as it ranks 28th in explosiveness.

I expect the Bulls' offense to exploit Charlotte’s weakness and the 49ers aren't built to keep up with or take advantage of South Florida’s biggest flaws.

When you add in South Florida's motivation to reach a bowl, this is a smash spot for the Bulls.

Pick: South Florida -6 (Play to -7)

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About the Author
Mike grew up in Connecticut but now lives in Pennsylvania and is a graduate of Penn State. He loves hockey and college football and thinks there is nothing better than a Big Ten game with Beth Mowins calling inside runs and punts on a cold and rainy Saturday.

Follow Mike Ianniello @Ianniello21 on Twitter/X.

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