Three weeks ago, the Iowa State Cyclones (7-2, 4-2 Big 12) were atop the Big 12. However, 2 straight losses to Kansas and Texas Tech have dropped them to 3rd place in the conference.
Their opposition in this Saturday's matchup, the Cincinnati Bearcats (5-4, 3-3), also come into this game on a 2-game skid. However, their losses have been more impactful, as the Bearcats now need to win 1 of their final 3 games to reach bowl eligibility.
Getting that crucial win against an Iowa State team that's primed to bounce back seems unfavorable if you consider the market's opinion, but a solid Iowa State performance also opens up another angle for this matchup.
Iowa State enters this game as a -9 favorite with the over/under at 53.5.
Continue reading for my Cincinnati vs. Iowa State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 16.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Picks
- Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Pick: Under 53.5
My Iowa State vs. Cincinnati bet is on both teams to stay under the total, with the best line currently available at bet365, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Odds, Lines, Spread
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | +220 |
| Iowa State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 52.5 -115o / -105u | -270 |
- Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Spread: Iowa State -7, Cincinnati +7
- Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Over/Under: 52.5
- Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Moneyline: Iowa State ML -270, Cincinnati ML +220
Cincinnati Football vs. Iowa State Football Week 12 Preview
Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Preview: Balanced Attack Faces Tough Test
The Bearcats have deployed a balanced attack on offense this season, but it's clear to see where they've had the most success thus far.
Cincinnati comes into this matchup ranked ninth in Pass Success Rate, as quarterback Brendan Sorsby thrived this season.
Sorsby ranks 22nd in QBR and holds a 16:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. However, he and his receiving corps are in for the toughest test of the season against this Iowa State secondary.
The Cyclones rank third in opponent completion percentage and 16th in yards per pass allowed. Their sustained success against the pass is backed up by their 13th-place ranking in PFF's coverage grades.
If the Bearcats are going to find success in this matchup, they are going to have to keep it on the ground. Iowa State is 107th in yards per rush allowed, but they do have the edge in the trenches as they outrank the Bearcats in Line Yards.
It will be strength against strength when the Bearcats are in possession, but the Cyclones are likely to get off the field more often than not.
Iowa State Cyclones Betting Preview: Explosive Offense
Iowa State's ascension this season stems from its improvement on the offensive side of the football. The Cyclones rank 30th in points per game and 13th in yards per game.
Like the Bearcats, the Cyclone's offense starts with quarterback Rocco Becht. Becht has excelled at stretching the field, ranking 18th in yards per pass.
We should see him continue to take shots against a Cincinnati defense that is 91st in opponent completion percentage and 113th in yards per pass allowed. However, Cincinnati's secondary is not as bad as their numbers portray.
The Bearcats are 32nd in PFF's coverage grades but are truly susceptible on the ground. They are 101st in Rush Success Rate allowed and have gotten pushed around in the trenches, ranking 109th in defensive line yards.
So, for Iowa State's offense that has been explosive through the air, they look to be better suited to keep this one on the ground.
Iowa State vs. Cincinnati Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Iowa State and Cincinnati match up statistically:
Cincinnati Offense vs. Iowa State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 76 | 98 | |
| Line Yards | 99 | 56 | |
| Pass Success | 9 | 22 | |
| Havoc | 76 | 69 | |
| Finishing Drives | 105 | 32 | |
| Quality Drives | 6 | 14 | |
Iowa State Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 84 | 101 | |
| Line Yards | 77 | 109 | |
| Pass Success | 47 | 69 | |
| Havoc | 32 | 45 | |
| Finishing Drives | 43 | 15 | |
| Quality Drives | 11 | 73 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 91 | 126 |
| PFF Coverage | 32 | 13 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 78 | 38 |
| Middle 8 | 119 | 67 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.2 (96) | 27.5 (75) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (80) | 54% (59) |
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Pick, Best Bet
The total on this game has come down throughout the week, and a closer look, like the one we did above, reveals why.
While both these quarterbacks are excellent, the opposing secondaries match up well, and each offense will have an opportunity to get things going on the ground.
That, combined with each of these teams ranking in the bottom half of the country in seconds per play, gives us a recipe for an under.
Pick: Under 53.5 (Play to 52)
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Start Time, TV Channel, How to Watch
| Location: | Jack Trice Stadium, Ames, IA |
| Date: | Saturday, Nov. 16 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | FOX |
Cincinnati heads to Ames on Saturday to face Iowa State at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Betting Trends
Cincinnati vs. Iowa State Weather
