Cincinnati vs Kansas State Prediction, Pick, Odds for Saturday, November 23

The Cincinnati Bearcats (5-5) will play the Kansas State Wildcats (7-3) for a primetime Big 12 clash on Saturday.

The Bearcats got off to a 5-2 start but have dropped their last three games to Colorado, West Virginia, and Iowa State. As a result, they are still searching for one more win for bowl eligibility.

Kansas State already qualified for a bowl game a couple of weeks ago, but it had bigger aspirations. However, it has dropped its last two games to Houston and Arizona State. Now, with three conference losses, Kansas State's path to the Big 12 Championship Game — and subsequently the College Football Playoff — is far more tenuous.

One losing streak must end this week, with the oddsmakers favoring that team being Kansas State — the Wildcats are 8.5-point favorites on the spread with a 52.5-point over/under.

Read more for my Cincinnati vs. Kansas State predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Nov. 23.

Cincinnati vs Kansas State Prediction

• Cincinnati vs. Kansas State Pick: Cincinnati +8.5 (Play to +7.5)

My Cincinnati vs. Kansas State best bet is on the Bearcats to cover the spread, with the best line currently available at DraftKings, according to our live NCAAF odds page.

Saturday, Nov 23

8 p.m. ET

ESPN2

Cincinnati Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
+8.5 -112	52.5 -110o / -110u	+245

K State Odds
Spread	Total	Moneyline
-8.5 -108	52.5 -110o / -110u	-305

Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

• Cincinnati vs Kansas State Point Spread: Cincinnati +8.5 (-110) · Kansas State -8.5 (-110)
• Cincinnati vs Kansas State Total: Over/Under 52.5
• Cincinnati vs Kansas State Moneyline: Cincinnati +245 · Kansas State -305

Cincinnati vs Kansas State Preview

Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Preview: Advantage Through the Air

Cincinnati ranks 42nd in the FBS with 182.2 rushing yards per game.

Senior running back Corey Kiner leads the team with 903 rushing yards and is on pace for a second consecutive 1,000-yard season. Kiner has been the bellcow back, while Evan Pryor gives the team a little more explosiveness with four runs of 30 yards on the season. Pryor and quarterback Brendan Sorsby are both over 300 yards while combining for 14 touchdowns.

However, regarding Rush Success Rate, the Bearcats rank just 80th nationally and 90th in Line Yards. Kansas State's defense will have a big edge in both areas.

But Cincinnati should have the advantage through the air.

Sorsby is completing 65.5% of his passes with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions, averaging 245 yards per game. Four of his pass-catchers have over 20 receptions and 200 yards, led by senior wide receiver Xzavier Henderson, who has 52 receptions for 632 yards and four touchdowns.

Cincinnati ranks 16th nationally in Pass Success Rate, whereas Kansas State ranks 77th in Pass Success Rate allowed.

Cincinnati will need a strong showing from its offense to have the best chance of pulling the upset. Defensively, it ranks 74th or worse in Passing Success Rate allowed, Rushing Success Rate allowed, and total defense. In its losses, Cincinnati is allowing 34.2 points per game.

However, Cincinnati can create pressure from its 3-3-5 alignment.

Middle linebacker Jared Bartlett is a strong blitzer and leads the team with 7.5 sacks, while defensive end Eric Phillips has four sacks and star defensive tackle Dontay Corleone has three sacks for the third consecutive season. Corleone left last week against Iowa State, but head coach Scott Satterfield was optimistic about his chances to play this week.

Kansas State Wildcats Betting Preview: Dominant on the Ground

Kansas State has made it known it wants to run the football, doing so on 55% of snaps.

The Wildcats average 202 rushing yards per game and rank 38th nationally in Rushing Success Rate and 41st in Line Yards. Running back DJ Giddens has 1,129 rushing yards and six 100-yard games on the year.

Though it is Kansas State's Senior Day, it could also be the junior's last home game.

Kansas State's rushing attack becomes dangerous when quarterback Avery Johnson gets involved. Johnson is one of the best athletes whenever he steps on the field. Johnson has 412 rushing yards and five touchdowns, while he has also thrown for 2,150 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and nine interceptions with a 60% completion percentage.

Cincinnati will look to force Johnson to beat the Bearcats over the top. Over his last two games, Johnson has one touchdown pass and four interceptions, with 11 touchdown passes and nine interceptions in conference play overall.

Last week, Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns against Kansas State. He became the fifth quarterback to throw for at least 250 yards against the Wildcats this season. Houston quarterback Zeon Chriss is not part of that group, but he went 11-for-11 throwing the ball in Kansas State's loss to the Cougars a few weeks ago.

Kansas State ranks 91st nationally in passing yards allowed per game and 99th in PFF's Coverage grades. With a clear weather forecast Saturday night, Sorsby could be in for a big night against the Wildcats.

Cincinnati vs Kansas State

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Cincinnati and Kansas State match up statistically:

Cincinnati Offense vs. Kansas State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	80	2
Line Yards	90	13
Pass Success	16	77
Havoc	80	52
Finishing Drives	115	34
Quality Drives	8	42

Kansas State Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	38	84
Line Yards	41	96
Pass Success	48	74
Havoc	29	45
Finishing Drives	65	27
Quality Drives	72	84

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	78	74
PFF Coverage	37	99
Special Teams SP+	92	17
Middle 8	115	67
Seconds per Play	28.3 (99)	27.0 (63)
Rush Rate	51% (69)	55% (54)

Cincinnati vs Kansas State Pick & Prediction

Though it is Senior Day for Kansas State, you do have to wonder how motivated the Wildcats will be for this game, considering their slim Big 12 Championship hopes.

Neither of these teams has done exceptionally well against the spread this season, but Cincinnati has done better against the number in conference play. In Big 12 play, Cincinnati is 3-3-1 ATS, while Kansas State is 2-5 ATS.

With that in mind, I lean toward Cincinnati covering, as I see this game staying within one possession.

If the Bearcats are trailing late, a backdoor cover will be in play because of Cincinnati's passing game. Though it did not result in a cover, Sorsby drove the team down the field for a late touchdown against West Virginia, resulting in a 31-24 defeat.

We will get to the window if the Bearcats stay within seven points here.

Pick: Cincinnati +8.5 (Play to +7.5)

Cincinnati vs Kansas State will be played at Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan, Kansas, on Saturday, Nov. 23 at 8 p.m. ET. You can stream the game live on ESPN2.