Texas Tech looks to move to 4-1 when it hosts Cincinnati in a Big 12 showdown.
Cincinnati dominated Houston 34-0 last Saturday to move to 3-1 on the season. Scott Satterfield's team didn't have high expectations coming into the season, but outside of a close loss to Pittsburgh, the Bearcats could make some noise in the Big 12.
Texas Tech has rebounded from its Week 2 loss to Washington State by blowing out North Texas and defeating Arizona State last weekend. This is Joey McGuire's third season, and he is looking to take Texas Tech to the next level after getting to a bowl game in his first two seasons.
To do that, the Red Raiders must win games like this, especially with a road trip to Arizona next week.
Let's dive into some Cincinnati vs. Texas Tech predictions and college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 28.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs Texas Tech Red Raiders Prediction
- Texas Tech vs Cincinnati Pick: Cincinnati+3
My Cincinnati-Texas Tech best bet is on the Bearcats to cover, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Cincinnati vs Texas Tech Odds, Line, Spread
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -120 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +132 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -102 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -160 |
- Cincinnati vs Texas Tech Point Spread: Cincinnati +3.5 · Texas Tech -3.5
- Cincinnati vs Texas Tech Total: Over/Under 59.5
- Cincinnati vs Texas Tech Moneyline: Cincinnati ML +132 · Texas Tech ML -160
Cincinnati Football vs Texas Tech Football Preview
Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Preview: From the Ground Up
Cincinnati's offense is built on its rushing attack, primarily from Corey Kiner. He ran for over 1,000 yards last season and has been even better in 2024.
Through four games, he's averaging 6.2 yards per carry and has been difficult to bring down, averaging 5.19 yards per carry after contact. It helps that Cincinnati returned its entire offensive line from last season and has the 32nd-best run-blocking grade in college football.
What held the Bearcats back last season is they were limited in the passing game with Emory Jones. That has changed this season with Brendan Sorsby transferring in from Indiana.
Sorsby has been one of the most efficient passers in college football this season. He hasn't been asked to throw at a high rate in most games and is averaging nine yards per attempt with a 79.3 PFF Passing grade for the season. Given how much Texas Tech's secondary has struggled, he will be key in this game.
Cincinnati's defense was amazing last weekend against Houston, pitching a shutout and holding it to only 4.2 yards per play and 233 yards of offense.
While the Bearcats have been pretty average versus the run and the pass, they have been outstanding at limiting teams once they cross the40 40-yard line. Cincinnati is 15th in Defensive Finishing Drives, with its opponents only averaging 2.3 points per scoring opportunity.
The Bearcats also have a really good punter in Mason Fletcher, 46 yards per punt and has given Cincinnati's defense the sixth-best average starting field position in college football.
Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Preview: Cracking Under Pressure
Texas Tech's offensive is built on its passing attack, and Behren Morton has been hit-and-miss this season. He had exceptional games against Abilene Christian and North Texas, but he struggled against Washington State and Arizona State.
Morton's biggest problem is that he's terrible when throwing from a crowded pocket. He's only been under pressure on 21% of his dropbacks but is just 9-30 for 41 yards with two interceptions on those dropbacks.
Cincinnati has a decent pass rush, ranking 64th in terms of a PFF pass-rushing grade, but it has the 14th-best coverage grade in college football.
Texas Tech has been effective on the ground this season, with Tahj Brooks averaging 5.3 yards per carry. It has a solid offensive line in front of him. Cincinnati has not been effective at stopping the run, so he needs to be effective offensively in this game.
Texas Tech's defense has been terrible this season and are due to get the score run up on. For the season, it's 95th in EPA per Play allowed and 117th in explosive plays allowed.
The Raiders are going to have to stop the run in this game and I am not sure they are going to be able to do it. They held Arizona State in check last weekend but are 78th in Rush Success Rate allowed for the season.
The secondary has been even worse, ranking 106th in passing Success Rate allowed. Given the opponents they've faced, that's especially concerning when you are going to face a quarterback as efficient as Brendan Sorsby.
Texas Tech vs Cincinnati Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and Cincinnati match up statistically:
Cincinnati Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 72 | 70 |  |
| Line Yards | 93 | 57 | |
| Pass Success | 12 | 92 | |
| Havoc | 79 | 113 | |
| Finishing Drives | 99 | 81 | |
| Quality Drives | 10 | 99 | |
Texas Tech Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 48 | 105 | |
| Line Yards | 53 | 116 | |
| Pass Success | 60 | 62 | |
| Havoc | 49 | 38 | |
| Finishing Drives | 23 | 15 | |
| Quality Drives | 26 | 54 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 63 | 131 |
| PFF Coverage | 14 | 132 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 41 | 23 |
| Middle 8 | 103 | 89 |
| Seconds per Play | 29.5 (109) | 23.4 (10) |
| Rush Rate | 54% (73) | 43% (113) |
How to Bet My Cincinnati vs Texas Tech Pick
This is a good spot to fade Texas Tech. Its defense has been terrible overall this season, and it all started in the first game when they gave up 51 points to Abilene Christian. There are real concerns about how the Raiders will stop Cincinnati's offense. This is the best rushing attack they have faced this season, and if they can't stop Kiner, that will open up the passing game for Sorsby.
The other problem with Texas Tech is its ability to stop teams once they cross the 40-yard line. It ranks 82nd in Finishing Drives allowed, with its opponents averaging close to four points per scoring opportunity. On the flip side, Cincinnati's defense has been really good at limiting its opponent's scoring opportunities, so that could be the difference in the game.
This line should be closer to a pick- 'em — I only have Texas Tech projected as a -1.1 favorite.
Pick: Cincinnati +3 (-115, BetRivers)
How to Watch Texas Tech vs Cincinnati
| Location: | Jones AT&T Stadium, Lubbock, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, Sept. 28 |
| Kickoff Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
NCAAF Betting Trends for Cincinnati-Texas Tech
- 70% of the tickets and 60% of the money is aimed for the Red Raiders to cover.
- 50% of the bets and 69% of the money is targeted for the Over.
- 96% of bettors are picking Texas Tech moneyline.
Cincinnati vs Texas Tech Weather
