The Cincinnati Bearcats (3-2) will travel down to Orlando to take on the UCF Knights (3-2) at FBC Mortgage Stadium this Saturday. Kickoff is set to take place at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2 for this Big 12 Conference matchup.
The Bearcats lost a shootout last time out against Texas Tech, 44-41. Meanwhile, the Knights have posted two disappointing results in the last two weeks, a 48-21 loss to Colorado and a 24-13 defeat to Florida.
Central Florida is a 3-point favorite as this game has a total of 58.5 points.
Let’s dive into my Cincinnati vs UCF predictions and my college football picks for Saturday.
Cincinnati Bearcats vs UCF Knights Prediction
- Cincinnati vs UCF Pick: Over 58.5
My UCF vs Cincinnati bet is on the over, with the best line currently available at BetRivers, according to our live NCAAF odds page.
Cincinnati vs UCF Odds, Spread, Line
| Cincinnati Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -102 | 58.5 -112o / -108u | +122 |
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -120 | 58.5 -112o / -108u | -146 |
- Cincinnati vs UCF Point Spread: UCF -2.5
- Cincinnati vs UCF Over/Under: 58.5 Points
- Cincinnati vs UCF Moneyline: Cincinnati ML +122 · UCF ML -146
Cincinnati Football vs UCF Football Preview
Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Preview: Sorsby Leads a Strong Offense
Cincinnati sits at 3-2 on the season following their 3-9 year in 2023. Scott Satterfield’s team has shown improvements on both sides of the ball but specifically on offense as they look to be a potential bowl team this year.
The Bearcats rank 27th in offensive success rate and have the #26 offense in SP+. They are 77th in explosiveness and 121st in finishing drives but they have been moving the ball down to down.
Cincinnati passes the ball 53% of the time, ranking 23rd in passing success rate and 34th in passing PPA. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby has 1,495 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and just one interception. He is averaging an impressive 0.29 EPA per dropback to this point in the year.
They rank 46th in rushing success rate and 66th in rushing PPA, but are just 105th in rushing explosiveness. Their offensive line has been effective this year as they rank 29th in PFF run blocking grade and 38th in pass blocking grade.
On defense Cincinnati has been the opposite as they rank 102nd in success rate allowed but 30th in finishing drives. Their rushing defense has been a major issue, ranking 115th in rushing success rate allowed, 104th in PFF run defense grade, and 95th in tackling grade.
They have been a bit better through the air, ranking 79th in passing success rate allowed and passing PPA allowed, but 112th in explosiveness. This secondary has graded out well as they rank 36th in PFF coverage grade but they have not had much of a pass rush this year.
UCF Knights Betting Preview: First Class Running Game
The Knights are 3-2 on the season but have dropped their last two games to Colorado and Florida after pulling out a one-point victory at TCU. UCF ranks 1st in plays per game this season as they are a fast-paced offense.
They typically stick to the ground game as they are 1st in rushing plays per game and 6th in rush play rate. They rank 5th in rushing success rate and 12th in rushing PPA, which should be a strong advantage for them against a bad Cincinnati run defense.
RJ Harvey has 750 yards on 113 carries this season with nine touchdowns as he leads this backfield while KJ Jefferson has added 303 yards of his own on the ground from the quarterback position.
Jefferson hasn’t been as effective through the air, throwing six touchdowns and four interceptions with an EPA per dropback of 0.05. UCF ranks 58th in passing success rate and 57th in passing PPA this year as their passing attack has been fine, but certainly not when playing from behind.
In the same way that UCF is elite at running the ball, they have also been elite at stopping the run. They rank 1st in rushing success rate allowed, 2nd in rushing PPA allowed, and 2nd in rushing explosiveness allowed. However, opposing teams only run the ball 39% of the time against them.
The passing defense for the Knights ranks 115th in passing success rate allowed and 125th in passing PPA allowed. This causes the defense as a whole to rank 52nd in success rate allowed and 99th in explosiveness allowed. They are also only 122nd in havoc generated.
Cincinnati vs UCF Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Cincinnati and UCF match up statistically:
Cincinnati Offense vs. UCF Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 57 | 3 | |
| Line Yards | 91 | 8 | |
| Pass Success | 12 | 123 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 96 | |
| Finishing Drives | 101 | 45 | |
| Quality Drives | 4 | 64 | |
UCF Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 1 | 108 | |
| Line Yards | 5 | 113 | |
| Pass Success | 97 | 80 | |
| Havoc | 67 | 32 | |
| Finishing Drives | 118 | 18 | |
| Quality Drives | 22 | 87 | |
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 97 | 60 |
| PFF Coverage | 34 | 43 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 70 | 60 |
| Middle 8 | 108 | 100 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.4 (91) | 25.2 (26) |
| Rush Rate | 51% (85) | 68% (5) |
How to Bet My Cincinnati vs UCF Pick
Both of these teams have been effective playing their own brand of offense this season, which also lines up with the weaknesses of their opposing defenses in this matchup.
I think that Brendan Sorsby will be able to attack UCF’s defense through the air and put points on the board this way while UCF should be able to run the ball straight through this Cincinnati defense.
At 58.5 points I believe that the total of this game is too low. I see both of these teams putting points on the board and this turning into a bit of a score-fest in what should be clear weather this weekend.
I love this number under the key number of 59 but would still take this up to 60.5 as well, which is another key number in college football totals betting.
Pick: Over 58.5 (Play to 60.5)
Cincinnati vs UCF Start Time, Channel, Streaming, How to Watch
| Location: | FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, Florida |
| Date: | Saturday, Oct. 12 |
| Kickoff Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN2 |
Cincinnati takes on UCF on Saturday, Oct. 12, in Orlando, Florida, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
UCF vs Cincinnati Betting Trends
- Cincinnati is 2-2 in its last five games against the spread.
- The total has gone over in two of Cincinnati's last five games.
- UCF is 3-2 in its last five games against the spread.
- The total has gone over in four of UCF's last five games.
Cincinnati vs UCF Weather
